"Africa: The Next Defense Market Opportunity?" discussed Forecast International's look at some very specific opportunities in that continent - one of which was Libya. Libyan ruler Muammar Gadaffi has shifted his country from rogue state status in the 1970s and 1980s, to a policy that completely disclosed the surprising progress of their weapons of mass destruction programs and sought normalized relations with the western world. In 2004 the European Union lifted a 1986 arms embargo against Libya, and in 2006 the USA restored full diplomatic relations. Many credit in part the influence of his son Saif al-Islam [BBC interview | TIME article], whose graduate degrees the University of Vienna and the London School of Economics reportedly included work studying transitions from rentier states and dictatorships to free market societies; he is currently working with Michael Porter to this end.
Libya's military has traditionally been Soviet supplied, alongside some equipment from France. The demise of the Soviet Union, the 1990s drop in oil prices, and Libya's pariah status all combined to choke military modernization - but Libya's new political direction, and the rise in oil prices, are changing that. Unsurprisingly, there have been widespread reports in recent days that France and Libya have signed a Memorandum of Understanding covering arms deals worth up to EUR 4.5 billion, including the first foreign sale of the Rafale fighter. Has France learned the lessons of Morocco and Saudi Arabia? Can the Rafale find an export home at last? Will the deals come to fruition?
This is from a recent speech given by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to the Conference of European Armies on Oct 25/2007:
"Said differently, our progress in Afghanistan is real but it is fragile. At this time, many allies are unwilling to share the risks, commit the resources, and follow through on collective commitments to this mission and to each other. As a result, we risk allowing what has been achieved in Afghanistan to slip away."...."While there will be nuances particular to each country’s rules of engagement, the "strings" attached to one nation’s forces [JK: several nations have these, including caveats that more or less forbid them to enter combat] unfairly burden others, and have done real harm in Afghanistan. As you know - better than most people - brothers in arms achieve victory only when all march in step toward the sound of the guns."....
..."For example, a widely recognized benchmark is for Allies to spend 2 percent or more of GDP on defense. Yet currently, only 6 out of 26 NATO members have met that goal." [JK: and some of those are the nation's smallest members]....
"As it stands today, non-U.S. NATO nations have more than 2 million men and women in uniform, yet we struggle to maintain 23,000 non-U.S. troops in Afghanistan. This is partly a function of how NATO militaries are organized, and partly a matter of resources - but it is mostly a matter of will and commitment. The same is true for equipment and other resources. Consider that earlier this year the U.S. extended its Aviation Bridging Force in Afghanistan in Kandahar because the mightiest and wealthiest military alliance in the history of the world was unable to produce 16 helicopters needed by the ISAF commander. Sixteen.
Meeting commitments means assuming some level of risk and asserting the political will necessary to deploy armed forces beyond one’s borders - fully manned and equipped, and without restrictions that undermine the mission. In Afghanistan, a handful of allies are paying the price and bearing the burdens of allies to create the secure environment necessary for economic development, building civic institutions, and establishing the rule of law. The failure to meet commitments puts the Afghan mission - and with it, the credibility of NATO - at real risk. If an alliance of the world’s greatest democracies cannot summon the will to get the job done in a mission that we agree is morally just and vital to our security, then our citizens may begin to question both the worth of the mission and the utility of the 60-year-old transatlantic security project itself."
Which leads to the natural question: just what is NATO, or Europe, really worth these days?
Believe it or not, stuff that matters happens outside of the USA sometimes.
"It's the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s," said Boeing's Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company's Asia/Pacific business. DID has offered ongoing coverage of India's planned multi-billion dollar jet fighter buy, from its early days as a contest between Dassault, Saab, and MiG for a 126 plane order to the entry of American competitors and even EADS' Eurofighter. What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India's shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into two categories now, and two expense tiers.
That trend got a sharp boost in March 2006, when Press Trust of India (PTI) reported a surprise pullout by the CEO of Dassault on the eve of the RFP. The Mirage 2000v5 will no longer be fielded for the India deal, despite the fact that India already flies 40 Mirage 2000Ds and its senior officials have touted standardization as a plus factor. So, what's going on?
In a word, lots. The participants changed, India's view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well - but with the release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition can begin at last. DID offers an in-depth look at the MMRCA competition's changes, the RFP, and the competitors...
The French elections just pushed forward a center-left (by French standards) and right (by French standards) candidates to the final elections.
Heather Hulbert, writing at democracyarsenal.com says:
And the far-right Jean-Marie le Pen falls to 10%, far below the second-place showing that so embarrassed France last time. So much for the SPECTER OF ANTI-IMMIGRANT SENTIMENT LEADING TO RIGHT-WING TAKEOVER.
Um, Heather - do you know was racaille means? Or the implication of nettoyer la cité au Kärcher??
Sarko is popular in no small part because he's mainstreamed Le Pen's positions, and wrapped them in a palatable personal history.
Hulbert's source - a immigrant to France - even makes this point, but somehow it got missed:
Maybe the biggest story is the (relative - sadly not total) collapse of the Front National, which slid back down to 11.1%, about what it used to score in parliamentary elections in the 1980s and early 90s. Probably partly a reflection of the tendency to flee the fringes, but also maybe due to Nicolas Sarkozy taking over much of the security and immigration discourse of the party and making it his own.
When people ask me why I don't have more respect for my betters - for the people who make their livings as policy analysts in areas where I'm a rank amateur - it's because I keep reading nonsense like this.
I'm not afraid of an Islamic takeover of Europe. I'm much more afraid of a resurgence of European racism and violent nationalism. they're much much better at that than we are. And I'm even more afraid of our clueless foreign policy apparachniks and their patent inability to see or think clearly.
Liberty has lost an irreplaceable champion. There are many advocates for western civilization and its freedoms in our world, and each and every one of them makes a difference. Of them all, French Academie Francaise member and "immortal" Jean-Francois Revel may have been the greatest.
Liberty. Humanity. Clarity. And an intelligence that enlightened, revealed, and challenged you every step of the way. Others will step up, and join the love story that he was a part of, and aim at the same things. They will take their place in our civilization's long chain - but those who rise to Revel's level are never really replaced. Was de Tocqueville ever replaced? Baron Montesquieu? It is enough that we had them for a short while, borrowed treasures that left something of themselves behind.
He has fought the good fight, and laid down a pen mightier than a brigade of swords. If there is a Heaven, he goes now to its Elysian Fields.
Au revoir notre pere, notre ami (1924-2006). May we prove worthy of your legacy.
UPDATE: Jeremayakovka has a tribute, and some links.
Daniel Henninger discusses the jury verdict re: the 20th 9/11 highjacker:
"We arrive at the end of these interminable trial circuses of procedural delay and then claim "the system works" and "justice" has been done. No, it has done damage to the normal idea of justice. He saw the game early on and made a mockery of it. Moussaoui achieved a two-year delay in his trial by demanding to interview al Qaeda detainees. But our moral betters insist that the whole lot of Guantanamo detainees be given access to this same system of justice. They would diminish and crush it.
The odds were strong, as Moussaoui's lawyers knew and the government's should have known, that 9 of 12 jurors would vote that Moussaoui's childhood was "dysfunctional" and "mitigating." This is the therapeutic vocabulary that the West has developed to explain anything in the years from the postwar period to, say, September 11.
For quite awhile after September 11, we were a people united in the war on terror. By now we have let the adrenal pleasures of political fighting over the presidency dissipate the difficult emotions of staying united against a real enemy. The war in Iraq has contributed, but you can't lay it all off on Iraq. The ambiguity of the Moussaoui jury is a portent."
Meanwhile, "French authorities said Thursday they may eventually press the United States to have Moussaoui serve his life sentence in France under two conventions on the transfer of convicts." They'd release him within 10 years, count on it.
Gateway Pundit has a fine roundup covering the French government's predictable cave-in on even the most modest labour market reforms. Of course, it's precisely because of France's sclerotic labour laws that hiring people is prohibitive, leading to a situation in which many of the people in its ghettos have no way to take that critical first step onto the employment ladder. With predictable results. And see Claire Belinski's anecdotes re: talking to Taxi drivers in America vs. France.
Compare and contrast. France has large demonstrations by people who want to be able NOT to work while getting paid, while the USA has problems with large demomstrations by people who want to continue getting in to work in low-paying jobs, in an economy that barely remembers the 10% unemployment rate that has been Europe's floor for over a decade. Leaving aside the very real issues with illegal immigration, the contrast in problems is telling. Whose would you rather have?
Publius Pundit has more, including this classic set of observations:
Strategy also applies to corporations.
BAE Systems (formerly British Aerospace) is selling its 20% stake in Boeing's arch-rival Airbus. The deal could be worth between $5.0-7.5 billion when all is said is and done, and BAE's CEO says it's intended to free up resources for more aggressive pursuit of the transatlantic defense market (i.e. America). That's interesting in and of itself, especially after their multi-billion 2005 acquisition of M2 Bradley and M113 manufacturer United Defense LP.
My DID article explains what's going on, and looks at the corporate strategy and issues underlying BAE's calculations. Q: What does BAE's sale of its Airbus stake have to do with increasing numbers of US military aircraft that are older than their pilots? DID suggests a potential answer....
I’d hesitate to divide between the lawlessness committed by unobservant Muslims and the terrorism perpetrated by their devout brothers and sisters. Native terrorist cells, the 7/7 four being a prime example, mostly seem to hail from the pious section of Europe’s Muslims, disgusted as much by the un-Islamic lifestyle of their fellow Muslims as by the West’s immorality at home and tyranny abroad.
But this may not last. Al-Qaeda has allied itself with groups and ideologues with a lot less in common with them than the angry Muslims of Europe’s cities. And those denied the lives ‘society’ supposedly owes them often develop a nihilism not unlike that of the savages who make up the jihadi ranks.
I wrote that on November 3rd, 2005, during the rioting in France and other parts of Western Europe. The 'Barbarians' gang that kidnapped, brutally tortured and murdered a young French Jew named Ilan Halimi provide a disturbing case study.
PARIS -- Once every five or six weeks, a French presidential adviser named Maurice Gourdault-Montagne flies to Washington to meet with his American counterpart, national security adviser Stephen Hadley. They spend several hours coordinating strategy on Iran, Syria, Lebanon and other hot spots, and then the Frenchman flies home. In between trips, the two men talk often on the phone, usually on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Welcome to the French Connection. Though the link between the top foreign policy advisers of Presidents Bush and Jacques Chirac is almost unknown to the outside world, it has emerged as an important element of U.S. planning. On a public level, France may still be the butt of jokes among American politicians, but in these private diplomatic contacts, the Elysee Palace has become one of the White House's most important and effective allies.
One of the grumbles I often hear is that Western feminists have ignored the issue of womens' rights in Islamic communities and countries - or have openly sacrificed them in the name of the left's idea of multiculturalism. There is some truth to this; nevertheless, there are also counterexamples. Or perhaps signs of a slowly-dawning epiphany, who knows?
Sign and Sight has a translated essay from Alice Schwarzer, one of Germany's most prominent feminists. She wrote an article recently in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Its core thesis?
"The riots in the French suburbs are taking place in an atmosphere rife with male violence where girls and women live in fear. If we really want to address the problem of burning cars, then we must also tackle the problem of burning girls."
Support for this proposition comes from the other side of the political spectrum. The British conservative writer Theodore Dalrymple has observed the problem first hand in his British medical practice, and says much the same thing.
('Gabriel Gonzalez' writes from Paris, France.)
The behavior of the French media establishment since the outset of the ethnic turmoil that has spread throughout the country has attracted a great deal of commentary, in particular in the blogosphere. Most recently, the local media have been more or less openly censoring coverage as a "public service". The official media explanation is that they are exercising their citizenly responsibility of avoiding fanning the flames of the unrest, so as not to give encouragement to the delinquents carrying out the violence. There is no doubt some truth to this, though it is not entirely consistent with the French media's enthusiasm in hyping other forms of "legitimate" social unrest: whether it be striking truck drivers, or firemen or police blocking public highways; discontented farmers or fisherman destroying property, burning down public buildings and vehicles; or public railway workers sabotaging transportation facilities or hijacking ferry boats; or even Palestinian suicide bombers "resisting" Israeli oppression or Iraqi "insurgents" fighting the American occupation.
Others have interpreted the relative downplaying of the violence by the French media as a sign of political correctness or "multiculturalism", i.e. an attempt to minimize the extent of the violence lest if reflect poorly on the perpetrators or play into the hands of the parties of the far right, such as the Front national. There are even claims that the U.S. media is engaged in similar sins of omission or distortion. I am even not entirely convinced there is much basis for this interpretation which seems little more than a projection by those making the claim of their own world views and biases (none of us of course are completely immune from this tendency).
In any event, neither explanation – an interest in contributing to restoring public order by not giving the perpetrators a wide audience or a desire to appease multiculturalists or far right extremists – addresses the crucial role that the French media establishment plays in preserving, promoting and protecting the national image of French grandeur and moral superiority by limiting the damage caused by the riots.
This has been a far more important factor in explaining French media coverage (or non-coverage) and presentation of the recent and still ongoing riots.