...Last week, at least 30 Mexicans from the town of El Porvenir walked to the border crossing post at Fort Hancock, Texas, and asked for political asylum. Ordinarily, their claim would be denied as groundless, and they would be turned back. Instead, they were taken to El Paso, where they expect to have their cases heard.
No one doubts that they have a strong claim. Their town on the Mexican side of the border is under siege by one or more drug cartels battling for control of the key border crossing. According to Mike Doyle, the chief deputy sheriff of Hudspeth County, Texas, one of the cartels has ordered all residents of the town of 10,000 to abandon the city within the next month.
"They came in and put up a sign in the plaza telling everyone to leave or pay with their own blood," Doyle said. Since then there has been a steady stream of El Porvenir residents seeking safety on the American side of the border, both legally and illegally. Among them are the 30 who are seeking political asylum.
"One of the disturbing and little noticed events of recent weeks was the crash (or destruction) of a Boeing 727 in the desert of Mali.
The crash is disturbing for many reasons, among them these three: 1) the aircraft was carrying between 2 to 3 tons of cocaine, far more than other, smaller aircraft and boats that have been detected in recent months, indicating an escalation of the trade through the Trans-Sahel region; 2) The region where the aircraft was found, most likely torched by its crew to destroy evidence, in a area of heavy operation of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM); and 3) the aircraft departed from Venezuela, now Latin America's primary transshipment hub from Latin America to West Africa, and source of all the major air shipments of cocaine that have been interdicted in West Africa."
Unsurprising. Given the number of Cuban DGI agents in Venezuela, this is that state's future, whether Chavez eats a bullet tomorrow or not. Note, also, the incidental al-Qaeda opportunity to pick up the high value part of the pipeline moving the shipped drugs north to Europe.
The United States government, along with the rest of the Western Hemisphere's governments, is so worked up about returning ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya to power that it hasn't thought through the long- or even medium-term consequences of its threats and demands.
Millions of dollars in aid to Honduras-one of the poorest countries in Latin America-was cut off after Zelaya was arrested by the military and sent into exile in June. The U.S. is not only threatening to cut off hundreds of millions more, it's threatening to impose sanctions and not recognize the results of the November election if he isn't first allowed back in office. These threats, if carried out, will put both Honduras and the U.S. in impossible positions.
Sanctions are supposed to be temporary. Targeted countries are always told what they can do to restore the status quo ante. Iran, for instance, can dismantle its nuclear-weapons program. Syria can cease and desist its support for Hamas and Hezbollah. Saddam Hussein, while he still ruled Iraq, had the option of admitting weapons inspectors.
Honduras, though, will have no way out if the interim government doesn't return Zelaya to power before his term ends in January. Because the Honduran constitution prohibits him and every other president from serving more than one term, it won't be legally possible for Honduras to do what's demanded of it after the end of this year. Unlike Iraq, Iran, and Syria, it will be isolated and trapped under sanctions indefinitely.
Sanctions and diplomatic isolation aren't the geopolitical equivalents of jail time and fines; they're used to coax rogue regimes into changing their behavior. They are tools of coercion, not punishment. By the time 2010 rolls around, it won't make any difference how badly the current interim government of Honduras is or is not behaving right now if the next one is elected in a free and fair election. The "coup regime" will have been replaced. The crisis will be over, the problem resolved. Punishing the next government-and by extension, the people of Honduras-for something a temporary former government did the previous year is gratuitous and, as far as I know, unprecedented. Even a country as roguish and oppressive as North Korea can come in from the cold if it holds a genuinely free and fair election.
While Honduras will be placed in an impossible position that it can't escape from, refusing to recognize the results of the November election will put the U.S. in an equally impossible position. Reality will force the U.S. to back down for one simple reason-it will be possible for the U.S. to back down, while Honduras could only surrender to our demands by using a time machine. We might as well play "chicken" with an inanimate object.
Read the rest in Commentary Magazine.
It's been 89 days since Manuel Zelaya was booted from power. He's sleeping on chairs, and he claims his throat is sore from toxic gases and "Israeli mercenaries'' are torturing him with high-frequency radiation.
The guy's a Berkeley humanities (now there's an oxymoron for you) professor, but he does bring up an interesting parallel:
"This spring in El Paso, after a talk I gave on the Indian raids and the U.S.-Mexican War, a man in the back row raised his hand. "Do you see any similarities between the borderland violence you've just described for the 1830s and 1840s and the current drug war?" The energy in the room changed immediately.
More than any other American city, El Paso has borne witness to the tragedy of Mexico's raging drug war...."
He has his own thoughts, and they're not as barking mad as you'd expect. But I suspect the wars also has lessons to teach that he hasn't considered.
Grant Martin of the Kansas City Star sums up the situation in a quick paragraph:
"Just in case you've turned your TV News off because you were tired of MJ stories- Honduras' president supposedly wanted to change the Constitution and serve for more years than allowed, the Supreme Court and Congress ruled that as illegal, he tried to hold a referendum, the Army refused, he fired the Army chief, the Supreme Court told him to reinstate the chief, he refused and had some group raid the warehouse that stored the referendum ballots, and so the Supreme Court ordered the military to arrest him and send him packing."
Zelaya did more than have "some group" raid the warehouse. On June 26, he issued a decree ordering all government employees to take part in the referendum. Except the referendum can't change the constitution. Octavio Sanchez explains why this stripped him of his office:
Nicole Ferand of the American Center for Security Policy offers a dissection of the recent Fujimori "trial," which appears to be the pursuit of civil war by other means:
"Last week, on April 7th 2009, former Peruvian President, Alberto Fujimori, was convicted and sentenced to 25 years in prison for "ordering two (2) massacres" that left twenty five (25) people dead during his time in office from 1990 until 2000. [1] None of the trial's eighty (80) witnesses could implicate Fujimori of ordering any killings, kidnappings or disappearances. This was in spite of being constantly intimidated and pressured to do so by the prosecutors and even the judges, who offered to lessen their time in jail if they accused the former leader. These individuals simply could not; one after the other, even the star witnesses of the prosecution, the members of 'Grupo Colina' [2] who allegedly carried out the 'murders,' emphatically denied that Fujimori ordered them to carry out these actions; in fact they declared they never even met him. According to a recent opinion poll, two thirds of the population says that Fujimori was found guilty without any poof or evidence and local opinion leaders, experts and lawyers agree.
According to most legal experts, Fujimori was convicted even before he set foot in the courtroom..."
The likely outcome is that it will turn the upcoming election into a referendum on Fujimori. That may not lead to the political outcome that the judges are rooting for. It's a good example of where full politicization of the judiciary leads, at least in the initial stages.
It won't stop there, however. Ultimately, if the judiciary is used to enact a form of civil war by other means, the political consequence is that the civil war soon comes back to them; indeed, they become both targets in any shooting war, and an incitement to continuing shooting civil wars once they start. Once compromise and settlement are seen as just a tactical phase on the way to judicial with-hunts, any negotiated settlement short of one side's surrender becomes impermanent - and hence impossible. The longer-term fallout here will be worth watching.
Venezuelan dictator Huge Chavez remains the gift that keeps on giving, as Brazil's President Lula authorizes Brazilian Air Force Commander Juniti Saito to restart the F-X fighter program in January 2008. "F-X2" aims to acquire 36 next generation fighters for the Brazilian Air Force, which is currently depending on Super Tucano/ALX surveillance and light attack turboprops, AMX subsonic light fighters, modernized F-5BRs whose design dates back to the 1960s era, and a squadron of 12 Mirage 2000s built in the early 1980s. A previous 2001 F-X competition was put on hold in 2003, and then canceled in February 2004 due to budget difficulties and political issues.
Amazing what adding just one wacko to the mix will do. Could the words "Brazilian fighter" begin evoking images unrelated to the Gracies? A proposed 50% boost to Brazil's defense budget could be on its way to accomplishing that, and more. While the Navy and Army are also in line for funds to replace broken-down equipment, the fighters will be a critical centerpiece of the Força Aérea Brasileira's efforts, with a $2.2 billion budget behind them. The aircraft under consideration are mostly the same set of 4+ generation fighters that were considered last time - but the competition may have become more important to at least one of the competitors.
Defense Industry Daily looks at the background, and the new round of F-X2 competitors from France, Russia, Sweden, and Europe's EADS....
Brazil's Defesanet reports that Rusia's Rosoboronexport expects to double or triple its defense industry contracts with Venezuela, which currently amount to around $4 billion for 24 SU-30MK fighters, 50 helicopters (Mi-17, Mi-35 Pirana attack, giant Mi-26 transport), 12 Tor-M1 anti-air missile sets, and 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles. Rosoboronexport official Sergei Ladiguin has reportedly referred to additional deals in the works for ships, aircraft & helicopters, missiles, and land forces equipment.
Partly as a response to their neighbor Venezuela's buildup, and partly in response to aging equipment that is falling apart, Venezuela's larger neighbor Brazil recently moved to increase its own annual defense budget from $3.5 billion to $5 billion. Russian equipment will be strong contenders for key Brazilian contracts as well, including 4+ generation fighters, transport/attack helicopters, and naval contracts.
Russia was well known for producing and exporting fast attack missile boats during the Cold War, and recent years have seen a renewed emphasis on naval exports. Rosoboronexport has reportedly been been pushing "Mirazh" patrol craft and Murena-E hovercraft in Latin American sales campaigns, and the country also makes the new Stereguschiy Class stealth corvettes.
Additional Readings & Sources
Castro's not really dead, although most likely dying, despite his TV cameo appearance.
Chavez's star, however, is in the ascendance, and expanding fast. He's the new Castro, with a bigger field to play on than Castro ever had: Venezuela.
Chavez has set the stage by taking on greatly expanded powers to nationalize Venezuela's industries as part of his campaign to "maximize socialism" in Venezuela. He plans to use his newly acquired powers to nationalize and/or control telecommunications, electricity, the oil and gas industry, and:
....dictate unspecified measures to transform state institutions; reform banking, tax, insurance and financial regulations; decide on security and defense matters such as gun regulations and military organization; and "adapt" legislation to ensure "the equal distribution of wealth" as part of a new "social and economic model."
Okey dokey; that's democracy, I guess. After all, as his supporters say [italics mine], "Socialism is democracy," and, "We want to impose the dictatorship of a true democracy and 'power to the people'" (now, just where have we heard that last phrase before?)
Or should that be "offensive diplomatics"? It would appear that El Caudillo Idiotario Chavez is generating no small share of backlash in his own neighbourhood, and even becoming a political liability to the Left in Latin America.
"None of this diplomatic buffoonery makes Hugo Chavez less potentially destabilizing. Chavez is determined to use petrodollars to win friends and to use arms sales - and, potentially, military adventurism - to intimidate foes. The danger he poses ought not to be taken lightly. As things currently stand, however, it seems that Chavez's foes have a lot to be thankful for. If they could not have a friend in the president of Venezuela, they at least got the next best thing; a thoroughly ridiculous enemy."
Not to mention the personification of just about every tradition of Latin American socio-economic failure that we've seen over the last century or so. But that's another subject.
"'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! This is an ex-tyrant!!"
Here is my first-blush opinion. First, the original announcements from Havana said that Fidel's surgery was so serious (he's 80) that he had formally turned executive authority over to his lsightly-younger brother, Raul. Raul was already "the second-ranking member of the Cuban Council of State." That means he was Cuba's numero dos to begin with. As has been reptitively noted by others, there is no prior record of any such transfer of power from Fidel to Raul or anyone else.
Since the Cuban health minister has said that Fidel's recuperation is expected to take 4-6 weeks, one wonders why a formal transfer of power was needed at all, when the transfer recipient was (a) already second in command of a dictatorship and (b) the brother of the number one. Raul has long wielded considerable executive authority already. For such a short time Raul would already be the go-to man for the government.
