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January 20, 2011

On Decline, Relative And Absolute

By Armed Liberal at 03:05

I read two things this week, and they - between them - nailed what I've believed for a long time.

They are about the change in role and position of the United States; one is purely historic, and one prescriptive (note that I'm dubious about the prescription)...

The issue, of course is the decline - certainly in relative and potentially in absolute degree - of the United States. Decline economically, which in turn leads to decline politically and militarily.

One is an instablog over at Seeking Alpha, the investment site, by some guy named Steven Graves. He makes, succinctly, a point that I deeply believe in:
Consider the circumstance of the US at the conclusion of the Second World War:

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  • J Aguilar: Even the very idea of three of the most prosperous read more
  • Treefrog: Because the latter category of folks... poor, desperate, and stupid, read more
  • Treefrog: Agree completely Alchemist. I'd like to add on to that read more
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November 8, 2010

Feeling Anxious About The State of America?

By Armed Liberal at 12:16

I am, and lots of people I talk to are. Some predict - as Jon Stewart accurately said - "end times" for the nation.

And to be sure, lots of what I see could easily move me to agree with them. Partisan rancor instead of careful administration. A deep political divide over the boundaries and role of government. International conflicts that skirt the edge of war.

Like Stewart, I see "hard times" not end times. Part of the reason is history; I read tons of it, and I keep getting reminded that what we're going through is nothing special. Kind of like the parent of a teenager, it's comforting to know that what you're going through is typical.

Last week, my airplane book was A Magnificent Catastrophe: The Tumultuous Election of 1800, America's First Presidential Campaign - one that brought this point home to me so clearly - it was a great book about the presidential election of 1800, which was the first truly partisan election. Thomas Jefferson represented the Republicans, who believed in liberty and in diminishing the control of the central government. John Adams represented the Federalists, who believed that only though the leadership of the 'betters' could the nation be maintained - much less led to greatness.

The French and English both were capturing or sinking our ships, impressing our sailors, and looting our international trade. The French Revolution made mob rule a real - not theoretical - risk, and an abortive slave uprising in the South challenged the Republican dominance there.

Machine politics in New York City, and Hamilton and Burr, as awful characters as the worst of our own scheming politicians.

They had problems too, back then, and solved them and moved forward. Events tempered ideology - as they always do - and Jefferson presided over the greatest expansion of federal power to date, as he taxed to build a navy and defend our trade.

Go read this terrific book, go to bed, and wake up to feel better about things.
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  • Glen Wishard: I can't beat Jefferson and Adams as an antidote to read more

May 10, 2010

What's Killing Afghanistan's Poppies?

By Joe Katzman at 16:51

 
Because something certainly seems to be doing so. My personal guess, shared by a friend of mine, is pleospora papaveracea, a fungus that attacks poppies, but leaves other plants alone.

That certainly seems to fit reports from the field - and it would neatly sidestep the central military-political problem created by conventional anti-poppy efforts, while providing a boost for programs aimed at a farmer-centric approach to counterinsurgency.

Well, well, isn't that convenient? Then again...


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March 1, 2010

2010: Winter Olympics' End

By Joe Katzman at 16:22

Nothing like a fantastic hockey game to cap it all off, with a goal in overtime to secure home team gold. Up in Canada, this was a hugely important game. And if you were watching down south, you saw 2 teams playing exciting on-the-attack styles, which made for a good game. Team USA coach Ron Wilson:

"Canada and the United States play the game like it should be -- not sitting back and playing on your heels and waiting for something bad to happen and counter-punching, but actually going on the attack. I know Mike (Babcock)'s teams play that way and I try to play that way, not very successfully right now with my team in Toronto [Canada]."

US coach Ron Wilson may get even more grief back in Toronto for saying that "Sometimes, the best team in the tournament doesn't win a gold medal." In a 1-game format, however, he's right. And Team USA was more consistent throughout.

But it did come down to one game, aganist another great team. And a finish that set a record for home country gold medals. That was thanks, in part, to a program called "Own the Podium," which aimed to secure more advance support for Canadian olympians, and focus on winning instead of just competing. That's a big cultural change for Canada, and a welcome one. Mission Accomplished.


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  • tagryn: At least outside Canada, "Own the Podium" will be mainly read more

December 18, 2009

I Left My Wallet...In San Francisco

By Armed Liberal at 04:07

One of the first blog posts I ever did was about 'Skybox Politics' (I have it archived, but the Armed Liberal site isn't up...) - I wrote about a bunch of lefty UC Berkeley student government types who wanted to close a cooperatively-owned bicycle shop in the student union so they could put a small electronics store in instead and raise the rent - so they could fund more progressive activism. I called them 'Skybox Liberals.'

California is full of them, and we're seeing the result in the disaster that is our state's government. Note that to me this isn't an indictment of liberalism = the folks running the bicycle co-op were admirable liberals of a type we need a lot more of these days. It's an indictment of a certain mindset.

Well, I ran into a terrific indictment of that mindset - one that boiled it, skinned it, and nails it to the wall - in the SFGate, where Benjamin Wachs and Joe Eskenazi just get out the big hammer and lay into San Francisco's government. They open:
Despite its good intentions, San Francisco is not leading the country in gay marriage. Despite its good intentions, it is not stopping wars. Despite its spending more money per capita on homelessness than any comparable city, its homeless problem is worse than any comparable city's. Despite its spending more money per capita, period, than almost any city in the nation, San Francisco has poorly managed, budget-busting capital projects, overlapping social programs no one is certain are working, and a transportation system where the only thing running ahead of schedule is the size of its deficit.

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  • jackhooper: I love to live San francisco. A good city to read more
  • Foobarista: I don't have the power to drag him to a read more
  • charris208.myopenid.com: The fundamental problem with "the homeless" Is that a lot read more

October 2, 2009

We've Been Talking to Iran for 30 Years

By Joe Katzman at 07:45

WSJ.com explains why Iran's current promises are still meaningless, and Ledeen hits it on the head again:

"Thirty years of negotiations and sanctions have failed to end the Iranian nuclear program and its war against the West. Why should anyone think they will work now? A change in Iran requires a change in government. Common sense and moral vision suggest we should support the courageous opposition movement, whose leaders have promised to end support for terrorism and provide total transparency regarding the nuclear program."

Anne Applebaum writes the same thing in Salon, saying that "Tehran's worst fear is a well-financed human rights campaign." In other words, talk less to Iran and more to Iranians.

Unfortunately, this also seems to be Obama's worst fear. Applebaum is also dead wrong to say that "he people who care about [the democracy movement] are rarely much interested in [Iran's nuclear program] - and vice versa." In fact, most of the people concerned with the nuclear program see the democracy movement as the best hope for progress, and have for some time. Obama, in contrast, has a consistent record of aversion to promoting or supporting human rights, rule of law, and other niceties abroad. Which is why the drift will continue, until Iran has the bomb.


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  • Alchemist: Wow, I screwed that post up badly. What I meant read more
  • Alchemist: Joe, my understanding is that most human rights groups don't read more

September 29, 2009

Hands Off Honduras

By Michael Totten at 07:11

The United States government, along with the rest of the Western Hemisphere's governments, is so worked up about returning ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya to power that it hasn't thought through the long- or even medium-term consequences of its threats and demands.

Millions of dollars in aid to Honduras-one of the poorest countries in Latin America-was cut off after Zelaya was arrested by the military and sent into exile in June. The U.S. is not only threatening to cut off hundreds of millions more, it's threatening to impose sanctions and not recognize the results of the November election if he isn't first allowed back in office. These threats, if carried out, will put both Honduras and the U.S. in impossible positions.

Sanctions are supposed to be temporary. Targeted countries are always told what they can do to restore the status quo ante. Iran, for instance, can dismantle its nuclear-weapons program. Syria can cease and desist its support for Hamas and Hezbollah. Saddam Hussein, while he still ruled Iraq, had the option of admitting weapons inspectors.

Honduras, though, will have no way out if the interim government doesn't return Zelaya to power before his term ends in January. Because the Honduran constitution prohibits him and every other president from serving more than one term, it won't be legally possible for Honduras to do what's demanded of it after the end of this year. Unlike Iraq, Iran, and Syria, it will be isolated and trapped under sanctions indefinitely.

Sanctions and diplomatic isolation aren't the geopolitical equivalents of jail time and fines; they're used to coax rogue regimes into changing their behavior. They are tools of coercion, not punishment. By the time 2010 rolls around, it won't make any difference how badly the current interim government of Honduras is or is not behaving right now if the next one is elected in a free and fair election. The "coup regime" will have been replaced. The crisis will be over, the problem resolved. Punishing the next government-and by extension, the people of Honduras-for something a temporary former government did the previous year is gratuitous and, as far as I know, unprecedented. Even a country as roguish and oppressive as North Korea can come in from the cold if it holds a genuinely free and fair election.

While Honduras will be placed in an impossible position that it can't escape from, refusing to recognize the results of the November election will put the U.S. in an equally impossible position. Reality will force the U.S. to back down for one simple reason-it will be possible for the U.S. to back down, while Honduras could only surrender to our demands by using a time machine. We might as well play "chicken" with an inanimate object.

Read the rest in Commentary Magazine.




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  • David Blue: Ah, a clue what might be going on (link). read more
  • David Blue: America's invasion of Afghanistan was justified. Justifications were provided. You read more
  • bgates: Invading not just on evidence, but "pre-emptive" evidence. Well. Besides read more

September 16, 2009

OK, Someone's Been Reading Too Much 'Snow Crash'...

By Armed Liberal at 03:36
A Johns Hopkins University student armed with a samurai sword killed a man who broke into the garage of his off-campus residence early Tuesday, a Baltimore police spokesman said.

According to preliminary reports, a resident of the 300 block of E. University Parkway called police about a suspicious person, department spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said. An off-duty officer responded about 1:20 a.m. to the area with university security, according to Guglielmi. They heard shouts and screams from a neighboring house and found the suspected burglar suffering from a nearly severed hand and laceration to his upper body, he said.
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  • mark buehner: Bucky balls sounds fascinating. How will they impact light saber read more
  • Alchemist: Ok, so this story is only tangentially related, but it read more
  • Grim: Never from me, I assure you. :) read more

August 25, 2009

Univ. of Utah: Is Active Broadband Cloaking Possible?

By Joe Katzman at 20:27

Well, this was interesting. Active, broadband, exterior cloaking devices... but not for light:

"University of Utah mathematicians developed a new cloaking method, and it's unlikely to lead to invisibility cloaks like those used by Harry Potter or Romulan spaceships in "Star Trek." Instead, the new method someday might shield submarines from sonar, planes from radar, buildings from earthquakes, and oil rigs and coastal structures from tsunamis.

"We have shown that it is numerically possible to cloak objects of any shape that lie outside the cloaking devices, not just from single-frequency waves, but from actual pulses generated by a multi-frequency source," says Graeme Milton, senior author of the research and a distinguished professor of mathematics at the University of Utah."


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  • Joe Katzman: Interesting that the same "metamaterials" Grim's roundtable discussed could also read more
  • mark buehner: "University of Utah mathematicians developed a new cloaking method, and read more
  • Grim: We had a roundtable discussion about a year ago with read more

August 19, 2009

The Pipeline Wars: A Russian View

By Joe Katzman at 19:38

Read my 2002 post "Pipeline Politics: The Caspian Front" for an intro, and "NATO's German/Eastern Question" to understand the limits of American power and influence. Now, RIA Novosti RussiaProfile.org's July 24/09 "Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: A Battle of the Pipelines"...

"The last three weeks have been rich in developments in the unfolding "battle of the pipelines" to supply natural gas to Europe. Russia, the EU and the United States are locked in a tough struggle to secure domination over the natural gas supply lines to Europe from Russia and Central Asia. Why is there such heated competition for building alternative gas pipelines to Europe? What are Russia's objectives in the "battle of the pipelines"? What are the EU and American objectives? Why is the United States trying to play such an active role in decisions that will not in any way affect the energy supplies to the United States?"


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July 10, 2009

MI6, Social Networking and the National Security Sector

By Joe Katzman at 00:25
MI6 FB
James never had
this little problem...

In March 2008, DID's "Sharpen Yourself: LinkedIn & Social Networking Sites" discussed both the career benefits and the security risks associated with social networking sites. Sir John Sawers, the prospective head of Britain's MI6 intelligence agency is probably wishing he had read it. His wife recently leaked dangerously specific information about him on Facebook, and created a controversy about his fitness for the job. Sir John now faces a possible parliamentary probe.

Despite these setbacks, social networking is becoming a larger part of the military, and the industry. In July 2009, Lockheed Martin released its internal company social networking application's underlying code as open source software. Social networking efforts are being explicitly built into PR contracts, and it's becoming one of the information shifts that are changing the battlespace. The Pentagon recently launched an official blogging platform at DODLive.mil, and US Forces Afghanistan launched a social networking strategy that extends to Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. Followed by orders to bases to stop blocking key social networking sites.

These efforts can make a big contribution toward ensuring that the Pentagon is no longer, as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates puts it, "being out-communicated by a guy in a cave." On the other hand, they are not risk-free.


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July 2, 2009

Honduras' Constitutional Crisis

By Joe Katzman at 19:52

Grant Martin of the Kansas City Star sums up the situation in a quick paragraph:

"Just in case you've turned your TV News off because you were tired of MJ stories- Honduras' president supposedly wanted to change the Constitution and serve for more years than allowed, the Supreme Court and Congress ruled that as illegal, he tried to hold a referendum, the Army refused, he fired the Army chief, the Supreme Court told him to reinstate the chief, he refused and had some group raid the warehouse that stored the referendum ballots, and so the Supreme Court ordered the military to arrest him and send him packing."

Zelaya did more than have "some group" raid the warehouse. On June 26, he issued a decree ordering all government employees to take part in the referendum. Except the referendum can't change the constitution. Octavio Sanchez explains why this stripped him of his office:


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