As Armed Liberal noted below, Hamas has won the PA legislative elections.
Despite remarkable comments from world leaders (President Bush: "I know you can't be a partner in peace if you have a -- if your party has got an armed wing." Fatah, anyone?), it seems unlikely that Hamas will be propped up financially by the West. Carl in Jerusalem explains why that is:
In everything that has happened in the US dealings with the PA since 1993, it has been Israel taking the lead. The US has dealt with the PA because Israel wanted it to. If Rabin and Slimy Shimon had not brought the PA back from Tunis in 1993, the US would have left them to rot there. The reason the US has dealt with the PA for the last 12.5 years is that Israel's position on dealing with the PA has been ambiguous. Every time Arafat would say something that was inconsistent with 'recognizing Israel's 'right to exist,' the Israelis would choose to ignore it and the Americans would play along.
With Hamas, there is no such ambiguity. Israelis across the spectrum (well, nearly across the spectrum - see below) will not deal with a group of terrorists that makes statements to the media like "recognizing Israel is not on our agenda." If Israel doesn't deal with them, the US won't press Israel to deal with them - and won't deal with them itself - because W would look like a huge hypocrite and because Congress will rise up against him. Congress has already spoken regarding Hamas:.
Remarkably, this may make things worse.
As A.L. notes, Fatah relied almost exclusively on donations from Europe, the U.S., Israel, the U.N. and others to survive. Hamas, however, relies on less scrupulous actors - wealthy donors in the Gulf (both governments and individuals), the Iranian regime and numerous 'charities' in the West. There is something of a problem for Hamas, in that their annual budget is about a tenth of that of the PA's - PA intelligence reckoned Hamas recieved $60-70 million per year, while the PA's budget was usually on the other side of $1 billion. A huge proportion of that came from Europe, which has indicated it won't be funding a Hamas-run government. Israel and the U.S. are pretty adamant on that, too.
As noted above, the demands put upon terrorists to prove themselves as peace partners aren't what they might be. Contrary to some, I think Hamas would get as much cash as Fatah ever got if they played the game. As it is, it doesn't look like anyone wants to play. And here's why:
In order to ensure the existence of a Jewish national homeland, we will not be able to continue ruling over the territories in which the majority of the Palestinian population lives. We must create a clear boundary as soon as possible, one which will reflect the demographic reality on the ground. Israel will maintain control over the security zones, the Jewish settlement blocs, and those places which have supreme national importance to the Jewish people, first and foremost a united Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty. There can be no Jewish state without the capital of Jerusalem at its center.
That's Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert two days ago. Labor has already indicated both its support for a further unilateral withdrawal and its willingness to rule in coalition with Kadima. Unless there is a massive political upset, the Israeli elections will produce a government committed to a unilateral withdrawal.
As for Hamas, you might have come across headlines reading Hamas: negotiations 'not taboo' or similar. It is worth reading the rest of Mahmoud Zahar's comments:
"Negotiations are a means. If Israel has anything to offer on the issues of halting attacks, withdrawal, releasing prisoners ... then 1,000 means can be found," Reuters quoted senior Hamas leader Mahmoud Al-Zahar as telling reporters Monday, January 23.
So: Hamas needs to find nearly a billion dollars a year in order to fund the PA. The West isn't interested in funding overt terrorists, and Hamas isn't going to beg. Where will the money come from? One of two places:
1. Bad people - Iran sponsors Hezbollah to the tune of at least $100m per year, Saudi Arabia and Gulf donors spend billions propogating Wahhabism the world over, and al-Qaeda itself, willing to pay cash for 'services rendered'. For all of the above, the prospect of a jihadist state next to Israel, bordering Egypt and Jordan, is too much to ignore. Which mullah or Wahhabi is going to let a state that wants to tax infidels flounder?
2. No people.
In other words, either Hamas will be indebted and inextricably tied to al-Qaeda and its sponsors in order to operate a government. Or the PA will collapse.
In either of those cases, what precisely will moderate Hamas? The idea that being responsible for paying teachers and collecting rubbish will distract them from annihilating Zion is nice, but it ignores the fact that government requires money - money Hamas does not have.
Pick your poision: Hamas becomes indistinguishable from al-Qaeda and the mullahs, or Hamas's PA collapses. Either as a terror-state or a failed state, the territories will quickly become a staging ground for international jihadists.
All those terrorists being in one place will make them easier to kill. But a lot of people will be butchered - in Israel, Egypt, Jordan and probably the West - before that happens, all of them unnecessarily.
Colt,
My money is firmly on the Europeans finding a whole lot of excuses that will let them continue funding Hamas. The funding will start at a much lower level, but ramp up over time as attention dies down until it's pretty much the same.
Now, let's look at your scenarios. I suspect Arik had contemplated them, actually:
SCENARIO #1: PA FUNDED BY BAD PEOPLE. If so, the Palestinians will trigger a conventional war, as opposed to the covert regional war they've been waging. Which they will lose, badly. This will result in a unilateral settlement of the issue on terms more favourable to Israel - ie. new imposed boundaries, backed by a fence. Not to mention a level of suffering among the Palestinians that may make them finally lose their hope of successful genocide. This is also the end of Europe's popular "Bi-national State Solution", which is essentially a proposal for Jewish liquidation by proxy.
All in all, costly, but compares better when matched against the wages of endless half-measures over decades.
SCENARIO #2: THE PA COLLAPSES. The Palestinians learn that actions have consequences, and that voting for Islamists doesn't result in progress. Their misery increases significantly, as some form of civil war results. Israel's border largely closes to them. No country will send troops to keep order, and aid will be totally impractical with many NGOs pulling out. The only way order will be restored is for a Palestinian faction to seize power, begin putting down competitors by whatever means, and do a deal with foreign donors that lets them rebuild.
The suffering, death, and misery that would otherwise require a full-scale war to achieve is effectively handled by the Palestinians themselves as their wages for war and hate. That's usually what it takes when cultures become as depraved as this one. Again, costly but as far as the Israelis are concerned, costly compared to what alternative over what time period?
And if that still isn't enough and the Palestinians snap back into the same genocidal pattern after "recovering," we're back to where we started and go with scenario #1 or Scenario #2. Rinse, lather, repeat until one side or the other acknowledges lasting defeat. The truth is, THAT is how wars end. Until we have that, we will indeed have unending war.
As such, your scenarios strike me Israel's best case, rather than its worst. Indeed, they strike me as the very scenarios Den Beste discussed when he explained Sharon's policies as he saw them.
Now, on to the scenario I see instead.
SCENARIO #3: Since the Palestinians are part of a regional war whose backers remain both determined and influential, Hamas simply puts a more honest face on an unchanged situation. The only change is more open support in Europe and the UN for ISrael's destruction.
The UN, who has very possibly done more than any other organization in the world to enable and legitimize Palestinian terrorism, hatred, and dreams of genocide, will not change one iota. They already employ Hamas members, preach the most venemous hatred of Israel on a consistent basis, and voted clearly on the proposition that Jewish children do not have a right to live. They will back Hamas as they have backed their predecessors, with the full support of the majority Arab and Third World blocs. And if they can set up "aid programs" et. al. they can skim from along the way, so much the better.
The Euros are driven by a Left that wants Israel dead; a Muslim population which is growing rapidly, threatening, and of a similar mind; and an interest in groveling before the Arab/Islamic bloc for energy-related reasons. NONE of those things have changed at all. Which means Europe will take a while but eventually find excuses and workarounds that let them fund Hamas. Donations will go to "civilian wings" which will be legitimized off the banned lists, or laundered through the UN, etc. But ways will be found, and many will just be expansions of arguments and practices that already have wide currency.
As the shock of the election wears off, funding will be ramped up and the Euro-Left media (whose journalists cried when that corrupt monster Arafat died) will publish propaganda to support it. And as has been true thus far, the Eurocrats will block any attempts by Europe's ineffectual elected representatives to begin a real investigation of where their money is going. They'll just issue reports by EU bodies that give themselves a clean bill of health, and continue. It's not like they're actually accountable or anything.
The convenient link from Egypt to Gaza expands, funneling far more weapons into Hamasistan.
The Iranian situation, which forces world leaders to confront the possibility if Armageddon, will worsen all of these trends. The Jews, who are Iran's main target (in conjunction with their proxies in Hamas), will be blamed as the reason the world is being forced into this risky confrontation - as indeed, we have already seen re: the Global War on Terror and the "neocon cabal" (read: "Jewish-Freemason conspiracy") talk. The clear implication, voiced openly or by inference: having them disappear from the stage would solve the problem.
This will go from its current sotto-voce status to something that is said more and more openly. In Europe, and among the growing swath of the American Left that takes its cues from that source. Moran, McKinney, Conyers, et. al. will have more company soon.
As long as the USA remains the only player that really matters, and retains its willingness to fight, this will not be strategically decisive. But it will complicate the situation and feed "Taliban West" in the PA, and yes, many people will die as a result.
"All those terrorists being in one place will make them easier to kill. But a lot of people will be butchered - in Israel, Egypt, Jordan and probably the West - before that happens, all of them unnecessarily."
yeah, but they want to die.
Joe, Robert,
I remember when people were predicting that if Israel gave up Gaza Hamas would gain control of Gaza.
Well they have done even better than that. They have the whole shooting match.
The Euros at least for a few days are having second thoughts.
One day the Palis will wake up and say "We have the Israelis right where they want us".
I always thought Gaza was a brilliant plan. It is turning out even better than I expected. Sharon is dying and his plan is winning. Some one ought to make a movie.
The interesting thing is that the outlines of the plan have been obvious from the beginning and yet the Palis still can't resist. The brilliance is just outstanding.
Joe,
Do you suppose the Iranian nuke potential has stiffened the Euro spine?
Chuuchill once said that Americans always do the right thing after they have tried everything else. He might have added that the Euros always do the right thing after its too late.
In reply to Joe's #1:
Joe, it is a lot simpler and more horrible than you think.
The Palestinian people in this election openly and enthusiastically embraced evil. Committing Genocide on Israel and Jews everywhere is their dream, goal and reason for existence.
They have of their own free will given themselves over to death and darkness. They are not redeemable. Like any other death cult culture, they are going to come to a bad end at the hands of their neighbors.
The real question isn't whether that will happen, it is when and by whom.
I think everybody's missing something -- moving megamillions about from unknown Point A to unknown Point B isn't easy, and is only possible because of the incompetence and corruption of Arab (and other) governments along the path, including the endpoints.
But for these megamillions to end up in the hands of the Hamas-run PA, Point B is known.
Regarding instituting the jizya on non-Muslims: One result of Hamas' political victory is that Arab Christians, already in decline, will be finally driven out of Palestinian lands. All of the ancient places sacred to Christianity will disappear.
This entire thing feels so alien. Here's me saying: look, Hamas have nothing to lose by going back to full-scale war against Israeli civilians.
And people are saying - yeah, isn't it great?
Joe,
Operation Defensive Shield was triggered by 24 suicide bombings and numerous other attacks in four months. Hundreds of civilians were killed.
What a question! The plan is to prove to the world that the palestinians are murderous savages, in order to justify (to whom?!) fighting back. This plays in to the death credits travesty that has been at the forefront of Israeli government thinking since September 2000:
What alternative, you ask? Why wait for the massacres we all know are coming?
"This entire thing feels so alien. Here's me saying: look, Hamas have nothing to lose by going back to full-scale war against Israeli civilians."
Hamas has a great deal to lose:
-every cent the West sends in aid to the Palestinians which keeps the society from going completely Escape from New York
-the money the Saudis and others will go under far greater pressure and scrutiny
-Israel taking the gloves off and taking out every adult carrying a rifle in the territories now that they are legally 'at war' with an official nation
How are thing worse than they were yesterday when everyone was pretending killing jews wasnt Palestinian policy? Now whatever Hamas does is by definition policy. What have they gained and how does that affect the reality on the ground?
I predict little change in the short term. Hamas will simply spin off an outfit for killing Jews which will be presented as an out-of-control militia. The Hamas suits will do what Arafat and Abbas did - say, "Gosh, I wish there was something we could do about all those jihadi guys, but they're not taking our calls. But we're not killing anyone so it's not fair for you to punish our government just because of some angry young men with guns who aren't members of our organization!" Then the Euros will keep sending billions of dollars, and nothing will really be different. It's not like this is the first time Palestinian government has been in the hands of openly murderous, treacherous, racist thugs.
IMO the new Hamas government of Gaza will receive approximately the same funding as the prior PLO/Fatah government, and from approximately the same sources. The chief exception, again IMO, will be the U.S. which will cut off most or all of its funds.
This might change in the future, but at this point the reasons for contributions by the Europeans (anything to stick it to the U.S. and Israel) and the Saudis (placating those who threaten them at home) still exist.
Get over it. Failure to negotiate feeds Israeli illegitimacy not the other way around. Every liberation movement has come to negotiate in the last few years. The only reason to prolong this one is to continue Israel's policy of lebensraum. If they get it because Hamas doesn't means Hamas is the failure.
Europe will continue to feed PA. They already said that will only review the thing if all other donors will move. Of course that is a excuse. Same for USA and it's agencies. Money will flow to some ONG that will be in a contact with Hamas.
The politicians in Europe and USA are not interested in fighting Palestinians allies in their respective countries.
Robert M is a good example of the dishonest lines and talking points we can expect from those who seek Israel's disappearance by proxy. "Israeli illegitimacy" are the ony two words that matter in his post, and sum up his entire mindset.
Of course, this is also a guy who referred to members of the US Congress as "People with less morals and fortitude than Hitler."
We he not so exemplary a cliche in this matter, I'd advise people to ignore him....
Any kind of instability in Palestine will quickly spread outside of the territories proper. Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan will all have to deal with a situation where you will have refugees fleeing refugee camps. As the conflict spreads across their borders, I don't expect them to stand idly by. Expect incursions into the territories to deal with the worst troublemakers. That is assuming that the PA falls, of course. I doubt that will happen.
#8 Colt,
From a moral point you are quite correct. It ain't hard to see this train wreck coming.
However death credits is a pretty good description of the real world.
Which is why I think the Sharon Plan for Gaza is so brilliant. The man is lying in bed and the Palestinians are doing his work for him. The crazier they act the fewer death credits Israel will need to act.
Hamas, Fatah gunmen battle over election results
joe, den beste-sama is moving his house and his server is down.
you cannot link his archives, temporarily. ;)
Just to show that Robert M is indeed a representative cliche, check out Money for nothin' and chicks for free at Belmont club. I had thought there would be a ramp up period, but it seems not.
"Failure to negotiate feeds Israeli illegitimacy not the other way around. "
For all the disingenuous nonsense Robert has spewed, this is actually a valid point. Israel has an opportunity here, but it would be fairly simple for them to scrape themselves back into the same old rut with the Europeans. Israel should announce they are perfectly willing to negotiate with Hamas- as soon as Hamas recognizes their right to exist. That little lever can get some major mileage out of it. Everything the international community can expect out of Israel, including continuation of payments to the PA, should be incumbent on Hamas recognizing Israel. Israel has nothing to lose and plenty to gain playing it this way. Hamas should be backed into this corner, and refusing to engage them simply provides Hamas and the Euros a potential out.
#9 Mark Buehner:
That's going to stop anyway. Joe may be right in that the Europe will eventually talk itself in to financing Hamas (Spain and Norway are sticking with them), but the PA runs out of money in four weeks. Hamas might - might - have held that off by moderating their tone some, but their leaders are already talking about cash sources in the Arab world. Hell, the Saudis are already willing to pick up the tab when Europe says no.
I'm not sure I understand - money from the Saudis and others will have a greater degree of scrutiny than the current 'safeguards'?
What official nation? And Israeli deterrance is at an all-time low. That's not just the opinion of the recently fired Israeli chief of staff, but Israeli Military Intelligence. No wonder - Kadima aren't threatening anything even close to you're suggestion. Here's Mofaz: No one is immune to a military response, even if they are in the ruling party. No-one is suggesting anything like what you and I might like to see happen, and no-one has for a while. Far from it, the Israeli gov't is frequently at pains to say that there are no plans at all for a ground offensive in Gaza, or an Operation Defensive Shield repeat in the 'west bank'
- Fatah is going to turn on itself. Without a serious rival, Hamas will be the only game in town. Marwan Barghouti wasn't electioneering when he spoke about a Fatah-Hamas merger. The 'young guard' who make up the al-Aksa Martyrs Brigades, Tanzim, et al, will probably join this 'national army' Meshaal is talking about.
- This 'national army', plus the local 'security forces', are going to be a headache for the IDF. Suddenly, arrest operations - the most effective tool against terror - are a much more dangerous prospect because Hamas is not going to let the IDF take prisoners without a fight.
- Fatah had an interest in keeping al-Qaeda out of the territories. The PLO was, in AQ eyes, a tool of the kufr. Hamas, on the other hand, is an al-Qaeda favourite. The amateurish attempts at mass-casualty attacks by Hamas won't be so amateurish with al-Qaeda advice.
- Iran, too, was no friend of Fatah. Debka says Iran will be allowed an embassy in Ramallah, and I'd say that's quite plausible. As with al-Qaeda, IRGC participation in attacks on Israel will increase. And, again, the quality of those attacks will increase. This is one of my objections to the fence: the jihadis' game just got a lot better, and Israel is concentrating on defence.
- The Gaza-Egypt crossing will be open to quite literally anything and anyone.
"Hamas might - might - have held that off by moderating their tone some, but their leaders are already talking about cash sources in the Arab world. "
I doubt they will, and i hope they wont. Believe me, i have no interest in going back to the game of pretend Arafat invented. When it comes to Islamo-fascists, it seems to me the crazier the better. Hamas is already calling for Taliban style Sharia law. They will continue their violent campaign. The bigger their bullhorn the harder it is for the Euros, Russia, and China to pretend nothing is horrendously wrong with these people. Just like Iran, the more rope they are given the more likely they seem to be to hang themselves.
"Hell, the Saudis are already willing to pick up the tab when Europe says no."
Yes everyone is pointing to this nightmare scenario where the apparently heretofor disinterested Saudis and Iranians suddenly decide to start gasp financing Hamas. We all know the truth of that, of course, they are up to their eyeballs in it. But resources are a zero sum game in the middle east (as opposed to the bottomless United Nations and Western pockets). If the Saudis are increasing financial to the Palestinians, they are spending less on Madrassas in Pakistan or sponsoring a terrorist in Iraq (the Sally Struthers version of Middle East charity, for only 3 dollars a day, you can keep Ahkmed strapped with TNT). Every dollar the Iranians are pooring money into Palestine is one less being spent on enriched Uranium.
"I'm not sure I understand - money from the Saudis and others will have a greater degree of scrutiny than the current 'safeguards'?"
Not automatically, but the Saudis we can certainly lean on with some effect. If the entire West is shunning Hamas, the House of Saud wont officially sponsor them, and that complicates things for everyone involved. Which is good.
"What official nation? And Israeli deterrance is at an all-time low. That's not just the opinion of the recently fired Israeli chief of staff, but Israeli Military Intelligence."
Deterrance is at an all time low? You are suggesting the IDF couldnt roll over the territories in an afternoon if they felt like it? What is stopping them exactly?
"No wonder - Kadima aren't threatening anything even close to you're suggestion. Here's Mofaz: No one is immune to a military response, even if they are in the ruling party. No-one is suggesting anything like what you and I might like to see happen, and no-one has for a while. "
Perhaps because the first cafe hasnt exploded with the equivalent of MADE IN HEBRON BY HAMAS leaflets in the rubble. As soon as Hamas begins bombing again as the legal government of Palestine, perceptions are going to change very quickly.
"Far from it, the Israeli gov't is frequently at pains to say that there are no plans at all for a ground offensive in Gaza, or an Operation Defensive Shield repeat in the 'west bank'"
And for good reason. What does it gain Israel heretofore to either make such threats or execute them. But again, when you are suddenly dealing with a legal and acknowldged foreign government, you can use your military to effect. I dont advocate holding the territories, but rolling through and killing as many guys with guns as you can has been useful in the past.
"- Fatah is going to turn on itself. Without a serious rival, Hamas will be the only game in town."
Not a bug, a feature. As i said there is no faster way to discredit a fascist movement than to let them show you what they are about.
"This 'national army', plus the local 'security forces', are going to be a headache for the IDF. Suddenly, arrest operations - the most effective tool against terror - are a much more dangerous prospect because Hamas is not going to let the IDF take prisoners without a fight."
Traditionally a stand up fight is the worst thing an insurgent force can do against a superior conventional force. Just means more dead Hamas.
"- Fatah had an interest in keeping al-Qaeda out of the territories. "
Perhaps but not the bet i'd like to take. Still, everywhere AQ has shown up to date to help fight the good fight they end up making things worse for their side.
"And, again, the quality of those attacks will increase. This is one of my objections to the fence: the jihadis' game just got a lot better, and Israel is concentrating on defence."
That may be true, but that simply gives Israel the go ahead to cut the rat lines and get tough with Iran. Again, none of this had any reason not to happen with Hamas just de facto running Gaza. Now its just out in the open and much easier politically for Israel to confront.
"The Gaza-Egypt crossing will be open to quite literally anything and anyone."
Until a Hamas rocket smashes into an Israeli village. Like I said, enough rope to hang themselves.
On funding Hamas, Syria is going to recommend the Arab League step up.
I think you underestimate how delusional people can be. China is systematically erasing Tianemmen Square from history, Russia has been building Iran's nuclear infrastructure and Europe is... Europe.
I forget who we're trying to convince here. Previously, it has been the U.S. - "the only people who matter", IIRC.
But what is clear is that the plan - as you describe it - is to use Israeli civilians as bait for Hamas to prove itself to be gasp a murderous terrorist organisation. I don't give a damn who we're trying to convince - it ain't worth it.
Given the amount of cash Hamas require, it isn't nearly a zero-sum game. ~$500m p.a. is not a lot of money for a billion Muslims. Pakistan and Indonesia may even pitch in. It occurs to me that you might be less pleased about this process if it were happening within sight of you.
The West's shunning of Hamas won't last, and Europe sure as hell isn't going to press the matter with the Arabs, who are all going to talk with Hamas.
C'mon - deterrance is determined by what you know the enemy can do and what you think the enemy will do. Everyone knows the IDF could tear Hamas limb from limb, but shelling empty fields in response to rocket barrages, etc, gives the impression that Israel won't. So says Israeli MI.
How is this different from Fatah terrorists - sheltered in Arafat's compound - who claimed the murder of Israeli civilians?
Can. But will Israel do it? Here's another example. Israel regularly claims they have evidence of direct Syrian complicity in such-and-such an attack. When was the last Israeli response against this acknowledged foreign government? And what was the international reaction the last time Israel hit Syria?
Who said anything about a stand-up fight? IEDs, snipers and ambush, everytime Shabak wants to talk to Ahmed about who he rents his lathe to.
Sure, in the meantime killing vast numbers of 'infidels'.
I guess we'll have to wait and see. Would you believe I'm not optimistic on that happening?
Ahh, Colt. I figure we're never going to agree on anything aside from wanting the best for Israel. Time will tell.