Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler of the Marmot's Hole.
* China has been either been real busy or real negligent on the Korean diplomacy front, depending on who you ask. South Korean President Noh Mu Hyeon held summit talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao on July 9 - check out Infidel of A Layman's Opinion for his breakdown of the meeting (scroll down the page until you see "Roh's Fault"). China has also recently proposed "five way talks with bilateral US-DPRK talks on the sidelines." By the way, Randall Parker of Parapundit (an excellent source for Korean news and punditry) recently posted an excellent look at China's role in the North Korean crisis, and Kevin of Incestuous Amplification cautions us against overestimating Beijing's leverage over North Korean behavior.
Today's Topics Include: North Korean high explosive tests, Chinese wheelin' and dealin', William Perry's warnings and the "Rummy Plan," funny business at the DMZ, and so much more.
* Supporters of South Korea's "Sunshine Policy" are on the defensive after Ko Young-koo, head of the ROK's National Intelligence Service, confirmed before the National Assembly a NYT report that North Korea had conducted about 70 tests of high explosives for use in nuclear warheads between 1997 and last year. The National Assembly then passed a new special counsel bill to look further into the now infamous "cash-for-summit" scandal that has tarnished the reputation of ex-president and Nobel Prize winner Kim Dae-jung. In particular, opposition legislators are keen to find out if money from South Korea has been used in the development of North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
* The last month has seen the release of a lot of disturbing intelligence concerning North Korea. The high-explosive tests aside, there are reports that North Korea has completed reprocessing of its 8000 fuel rods (discounted by Seoul), and recent reports suggest that the North may have secretly constructed a second facility for the reprocessing of weapons-grade plutonium (Seoul discounts those reports as well). Meanwhile, the South Korean Ministry of Defense confirmed that North Korea deployed an additional battalion of Rodong-1 missiles (capable of hitting Japan) last year, and that the Stalinist state has redeployed some of its long-range guns closer to the DMZ (and more to the point, closer to Seoul).
* William Perry, Defense Secretary to former President Bill Clinton, used the Washington Post as a vehicle to criticize the Bush Administration handling of the North Korean nuclear crisis and warned of war before the end of the year. For an excellent rebuttal, check out Kevin of Incestuous Amplification's outstanding commentary on Perry's WP interview.
* Rep. Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania proposed a 10-point plan to solve the North Korean nuclear crisis once and for all after meeting with North Korean officials in June. I suggest you take a look at the plan for yourself (or Fred Kaplan's endorsement of the plan over at Slate), but if it means anything to you, most of us Korea-bloggers shot it down, regardless of ideological orientation - check out the opinions of Incestuous Amplification, Kathreb, and, of course, the Marmot's Hole.
* Donald Rumsfeld has reportedly ordered military commanders to devise a new war plan with North Korea (courtesy Rantburg). The plan, named Operations Plan 5030, apparently seeks to topple the North Korean regime by destabilizing its military. Details of the pre-war phase of the plan include such scenarios as running recon flights even closer to North Korean airspace, conducting suprise military exercises along the DMZ, disrupting financial networks and sowing disinformation.
* There was a small firefight in the DMZ on July 17 - South Korea's Constitution Day. Nothing to worry about, of course - these kinds of things happen all the time.
* Despite the deteriorating situation, the Noh Mu-hyeon Administration is doing its best to keep engagement with the North alive. Hyundai kicked off construction of an industrial park in the North Korean city of Kaesong, more separated family reunions were held in the North's Kumgang Mountains, and the two Koreas agreed to promote economic and cultural exchanges as the l1th Inter-Korean Ministerial Meeting held in Seoul.
* The Bush Administration may be preparing a plan to accept thousands of refugees from North Korea. Mr. Parker of Parapundit weighs in with his own opinions on what should be done with North Korean refugees - they should not be missed. Oh, and speaking of refugees and defectors, the South Korean government finally gave Hwang Jang-yop, former head-ideologue of North Korea and the highest ranking defector ever to cross sides, permission to visit the United States to talk with American officials, although Seoul is asking Hwang to postpone his trip to a "less sensitive period than now" - wouldn't want to offend those North Koreans, now would we?
The next installment of the Marmot's Korea Briefing will be August. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Korean events can be found at The Marmot's Hole.
The North Koreans are going to develop nuclear weapons regardless of how many agreements they sign, or what they publicly say, or how devastated their economy is. Everything they know of Korean history demands it.
In the end, it is a South Korean problem. They will be the only profitable target for NK wmds. They use them against anyone else, and they will be destroyed. They do know this.
NK is a sideshow in the war on islamism.
American policy ought to be: let them drown in their bullshit. Produce a convincing warning that they will be annihilated if they sell their wmds to any islamists (constant diplomacy and subsidy sends the opposite message). Tell the South Koreans to deal with the problem if they expect to keep trading with us. Don't count on China for a goddamned thing except the most ruthless pursuit of real or imaginary Chinese interests. Encourage Japanese rearmament and missile defense. Stay focused, in the immediate future, on controlling Iranian and Pakistani nukes. In the long term, on pursuing a revolution in Islam against islamism.
Repeat..NK is a sideshow...we're barely started on the war on islamism.
I fail to see how NK is a side show. If the North Koreans make a lot of nuclear weapons it is likely they will sell some of them to Muslim governments and private groups.
My main point is this: I realize that NK marketing weapons IS the problem here. It can be solved with convincing threats. If it takes a lot of our resources, it will encourage the very people who are the main threat.
NK will only sell weapons under a guarantee of anonymous use, that is, that no one knows they came from them. As the other sources who have the WILL to use them are eliminated (Iraq, Iran, islamicized Pakistan), the North Koreans become more visible. See Lee Harris' argument at TechCentral.
The mullahs of islamism would love to see us tied down in North Korea right now.
The primary goal of the North Koreans in acquiring nukes is self-preservation. They will do this regardless of any agreements. We can change the regime, with great difficulty and enormous resources, or we can neutralize them. We do not have infinite resources, nor the political will to apply them if we had them.
We have tied up enormouse resources in handling Iraq...and still have not done anything about the more serious center of the islamist problem - Iran, Saudi Arabian wahabi schools, and securing the nukes in a Pakistan dangerously close to islamicization. North Korea, if we tackle it militarily, will distract us more. If we attack the center of the problem, we also neutralize North Korea.