In the aftermath of the recent fighting between Iran/Syria proxies Hezbollah and Israel, a few after action reviews and assessments have begun to trickle in. While war is inseparable in practice from political strategy, and the Olmert government's interference in military planning & operations was significant and negative, DID has searched for analyses that offer more of a techno-tactical assessment. Details have been far sketchier than one is used to for American conflicts, but a hazy picture is beginning to emerge and evaluations are being made of the two forces' effectiveness. Hezbollah can safely be characterized as a state within a state and was aided by Iranian forces. Accordingly, this conflict featured most of the accoutrements of full state conflicts: Armed UAVs (apparently used by both sides), air and missile strikes with corresponding air defense activity, anti-ship cruise missiles, tanks vs. advanced anti-armor missiles (incl. AT-13s and Milans), et. al. As such the performance of the two forces and their equipment is of serious interest to defense observers around the world.
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During the war, DID ran a "conflict tech" article covering the Ahi-Hanit missile attack and productization of the researched but never procured THEL laser (now Skyguard), and notes re: the array of Iranian rockets and missiles being employed. Not to mention questions questions about the limits of transformation, et. al.
Here are a few more you may or may not have seen. All of which are part of the incredible lethality of the Western Way of War, which relentlessly examines questions like these rather than sweeping them under the carpet as a threat to the ruling clique. Israel's situation is every bit as tenuous as Trent thinks, maybe more. But on a long term basis, Israel has access to the Western Way of War and Hezbollah/Iran do not - and it matters. Rome's legions were annihilated at Cannae, but within a year they had restored their capability in full. Israel was not annihilated, and the same path of renewal is open to them. If Hezbollah has indeed miscalculated in this round, the same cannot be said on their behalf.
- Winds of Change.NET (Aug 24/06) - A Military Assessment of the Lebanon Conflict by Ben Moores.
- DefenseTech (Aug 22/06) - More Lebanon War Lessons Learned. Includes an assessment from Jane's.
- DefenseTech (Aug 21/06) - Lebanon War Lessons Learned. Is a shakeup coming in the Israeli military?
- NY Post (Aug 17/06) - Hezbollah 3, Israel 0 by Lt. Col. Ralph Peters [ret.]. The revelations concerning the state of the reserves are particularly troubling. On Winds of Change.NET, Trent Telenko expands on that aspect, noting the importance of the corruption factor and wondering if the IDF has become a "hollow force" like the US military was in the 1970s.
- Center for Strategic & International Studies (Aug 17/06) - Preliminary "Lessons" of the Israeli-Hezbollah War by Anthony H. Cordesman [PDF format]
I think
Azrael's comment
is worth considering:
WE may have just seen the light machine gun displaced as the principle crew-served weapon of the infantry.
Not all infantry. Horses for courses. But this is really interesting.
And yet....
I'd like to see more analysis of this sort on the Hezbollah side. Hezbollah being "a state within a state", we should look more in depth to what effect the conflict has had on Hezbollah's 'sovereignty'. Previous to the conflict they ruled the territory from the river to the blue line. To what extent are they able to exorcise sovereignty over this territory now - considering that territory is now occupied by various other forces? They may be able to rebuild their armories as a terrorist insurgency, but have they lost their sovereignty as a state?
I'm coming closer to the winners circle:
Hizballah is packing its heavy weapons and cant show its light ones except on ceremonial occasiions. Like funerals.
Israel controls the Bekaa.
Now all I need is the destruction of Syria and I will have a sweep.
It may be there was a plan after all. Just not exactly the one I envisioned.
http://powerandcontrol.bl*gspot.com/2006/08/militias-disarmed.html
I quoted this in the link above:
"Nasrallah's comments match Israeli beliefs that Hizbullah's political stance has been harmed following the war."
The new Hizballah in Syria? Looks like it might be the old one from Lebanon. Somewhat the worse for wear.
If what I posit is true Syria is getting or has a permanent influx of Hizballah supporters from Lebanon.
This has got to strain Syria's already strained budget; add in that the Lebanese "government" intends to take over the Bekaa Valley smuggling and you have another financial blow for Syria/Iran.
The financial squeeze is on.
Once the bread riots start government falls.
Cash flow jihad strikes again.
The real war is taking place in the banks.
http://powerandcontrol.bl*gspot.com/2006/08/iran-to-enter-cash-flow-jihad-zone.html
Yet at present there's no deal, so careful M, I'm even closer to said circle than you are.
Seriously, I have heard conflicting reports on the ATGMs... and I wonder how that would have gone down had IDF not been so "hollowed out."
Westhawk believes that in Gaza certainly away from the media Israel is conducting a "stealth seige warfare" designed to make Gaza so miserable that there are no spare resources to be devoted to rocket attacks on Israel.
That part of the Israeli response to Lebanon was from the same playbook.
Don't know for myself if I buy that; but I think that intent is partially there. It makes sense of various infrastructure attacks. Without the civilian population to resupply from and provide labor Hezbollah has serious problems not the least of which is a lack of human shields.
There's a certain brutal logic there. Consider it a practical application of Maslow's hierarchy: Shred the infrastructure to the degree that the population is first of all concerned with water, food and shelter, and they won't be so worried about the 'self actualization' of taking on the kufr next door.
(For that matter, smash the civilian fuel supply and power plants, and the military logistics chain and the power sources for the fissile materials refineries stick out like a sore thumb.)
Kornet are always claimed to be everywhere but no one shows them.
Israel still not showed any captured Metis(AT-13) or Kornet missile. They showed TOW's and Konkurz and all of them is capable of penetrating the side skirts of Merkava (or any other tank for that matter, maybe excepting the uparmored skirts of Challenger 2).
So what happenend? I see no more comments after 2006, it seems all comments were wrong, Hezbulah is stronger and more polupar than ever!
Justice wins over military power of opression, it s time for people of Israel to wake up and leave the side of opressor and occupier,
Peace
Fred: If you're basing your conclusions about Hizb'Allah on the lack of activity in one thread on one blog in the entire Internet, I think you might benefit from some recalibration. :)
But thanks for the drive-by just the same.