Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Iran.
Top Topic
* As Dan's Iran Report noted recently, there are reports Iran has chosen Muqtada al-Sadr to lead the Iraqi Hezbollah. Put this together with Dan's link claiming that Imad Mugniyeh has arrived in Iraq to assist the Iranian designs in the country, and a Washington Post story that points toward Iran as the launching point for al-Qaeda's operations in Iraq. Clearly, what we have here is a full-scale proxy war between Iran and the USA in Iraq.
Other Topics Today Include: Nuclear program updates; Iran's dissidents imprisoned, murdered; Pedram's personal 1988 nightmare; Democracy, Islam, argument style, and war; Steppenwolf's blogging satori; Zahra Kazemi raped, tortured and Canada does nothing; the Left and Iran; Where are you from?
* Team member Iraniangirl had a really bad birthday.
* Not as bad as the Summer of 1988, though. Pedram finally begins to discuss the events of that summer, which led to his imprisonment and the deaths of many of his friends.
* Similar events are still happening today, as some dissidents arrested by the government are "disappearing."
* Kate notes that the U.N. IAEA agency is leaning on Iran, but this Radio Farda summary makes it pretty clear that it isn't having much effect, and in fact the U.N. has no inclination to even refer the issue to the Security Council. In response, the USA is stepping up the diplomatic pressure.
* More bad news: this article explains that Iran's nuclear program is broadly popular and seen as a prestige program (Hat Tip: ActivistChat.com). Which is too bad, because it really needs to be seen as a program with the potential to kill just about every man, woman, and child in Iran. See my comments here. I'm trying to imagine a dumber reason to create this risk. I can't.
* Meanwhile, one small bright spot: Talks between Moscow and Tehran have failed to produce a key agreement that would launch the Islamic state's Bushehr nuclear reactor
* Niyayesh at FreeThoughts.org writes about a conversation with an acquaintance who is a Muslim cleric... and sparks a very lively discussion about Islam and democracy among native and expatriate Iranians.
* Hooman follows with a very thought-provoking post that links the Western style of argument to the concept and purpose of war as we understand it. I think he has put his finger on something real, and very interesting. Victor Davis Hanson, call your office.
* Steppenwolf uses an analogy to describe what reading blogs has meant to him personally, then adds some Pink Floyd lyrics and finally comments on the balance between criticism and proportion in coverage of Iran.
* Just when you think the death of Canadian journalist Zahra Kazemi couldn't get any more disturbing, it does. Toronto-based lawyer Hamid Mojtahedi recently said that Kazemi was raped by Iranian intelligence agents, then murdered and injected with chemicals to speed decomposition and foil forensics.
* Pedram recounts the complete spinelessness of Canadian MPs re: the Kazemi case. I'm amazed only that he finds this surprising. This is par for the course (ask the Canadian man tortured for years in Saudi Arabia), and Canada's complaints to Iran will simply be ignored without any consequences.
* More on the Kazemi case, including the murders, judicial interference, and other outrages that characterize this case but aren't reported much.
* On which topic... IranianVoice.org recently ran an article called "Double Standards and Deception: How the Left Treats Iran and the Middle East". The title speaks for itself.
* Amir Nooriala asks himself where he's really from.
The next installment of our Iran update will be October 7th.
For highly alarming information about Iran's nuclear program, I suggest reading this post of mine, about a report that appeared in Sunday's issue of Tagesspiegel.
Since Israel possesses nuclear weapons, doesn't Iran technically have a right to defend itself by responding in kind?
Hmm, "myth" is a good name for you. My full answer to that idea can be found here.
To summarize briefly, there are only 2 problems with this idea:
[1] Iran's pursuit of these weapons is, by its leaders' own admission, not about defense. It's about the threat of pre-emptive attack and genocide.
[2] Even if Iran had different leaders, these weapons would offer Iran zero defense against Israel.
First of all, Israel does not threaten to occupy or militarily destroy Iran (as India could threaten Pakistan, for instance). So that classic aspect of conventional deterrence doesn't apply. As for nuclear weapons, the only scenario under which Israel would use its weapons would be at a juncture where it faced destruction (often referred to "The Samson Option"). At which point, Iran's possession or non-possession would be irrelevant. Indeed, possessing nuclear weapons sharply raises the possibility of nuclear weapons use due to miscalculation or accident in a tense situation (read the history of the Cold War for some chilling examples), a threat which did NOT exist before. My full answer explains how this works.
So in fact, Iran possessing nukes actually has the effect of making the use of nuclear weapons against Iran and its people substantially MORE liklely, not less.
Shifting now to the question of American and Western interests, it's also worth examining the Iranian regime itself. A dictatorship with a powerless democratic veneer, whose ideology is structured such that war and the promotion of war and hatred are integral aspects of its functioning. The world's #1 supporter of terrorism via training, financing, basing (including, by its own admission, a number of al-Qaeda leaders in country "under supervision"), on a scale that eclipses even Syria and Saudi Arabia. A regime whose leaders have made open threats of attack and genocide once these weapons are acquired.
Only a blithering idiot could want a regime like this to get its hands on nuclear weapons. Much less assert a right of possession for one.