The Iraqi government has chosen to delay announcing the results of the country's constitutional referendum until Friday while they examine the integrity of the process, with the tallies in Nineveh and Salahuddin appearing as those under the closest scrutiny at the moment. I really don't have that much to add as far as this issue in and of itself goes and I think that the Iraqi Electoral Commission is probably quite wise in making its decision. One of the things I would note in particular is this passage here:
The audit, announced by the Electoral Commission on Monday, will examine results that show an oddly high number of "yes" votes - apparently including in two crucial provinces that could determine the outcome of the vote, Ninevah and Diyala. The election commission and United Nations officials supervising the counting have made no mention of fraud and have cautioned that the unexpected votes are not necessarily incorrect.
This is one issue that needs to be highlighted, namely that no one except certain Sunni leaders at this point is declaring that there's a fraud in the works. I have no idea whether or not any ballot-stuffing or other improprieties occurred with respect to the vote, but one thing I would urge observers against is drawing any unwarranted conclusions here before all the facts are in. This one of the major mistakes that Anzar made after 3/11 with respect to the culpability of ETA on similar (and at the time far more logical than some I've seen online) assumptions and we saw where that got him.
Other brief thoughts on the referendum:
- Large figures in favor of a particular referendum are not in of themselves evidence that impropriety has occurred. It can be an indication of it, but it is also equally possible that the constitutional referendum was extremely popular, particularly in the major Shi'ite provinces. It should also be kept in mind when looking at some of the Shi'ite results that Grand Ayatollah Sistani has urged Iraqis to vote "yes" on the referendum as well as the kind of following that Sistani is reputed to have inside Iraq. We have been told (and I agree with) on numerous occasions that if Sistani ever called for a popular uprising against US forces inside Iraq, that would be the end of it for us with respect to the Shi'ite population. However, it must also be asked whether or not that level of support also works in our favor on issues such as the constitution.
- There's been a lot of talk as to just how much support the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Sunni Endowment actually have in Iraq, with a lot of it centered around the January elections. I'm not sure if that's an accurate metric to use, though, given that it seems that the Sunni political paradigm has changed a lot since the elections for a variety of reasons. How much weight groups like the Association of Muslim Scholars carry among the general Sunni population rather than among the insurgents (for some of whom the Association is more or less an informal mouthpiece) would also seem to be an open question. Please note that I am not denying that any of these groups have large and influential followings, but rather that I don't think that we can effectively gauge just how much of a following they have. I am also extremely leery of viewing the Sunnis as a singular monolithic entity in either their opposition to the constitution or in terms of their adherence to the groups that purport to speak for them, whether it be the Iraqi Islamic Party, the Sunni Endowment, or the Association of Muslim Scholars.
- On a similar note, let us point out that there is a lot that we still don't know as far as the Iraqi political scene is concerned. Without attacking the integrity of any of the polling data that's been presented to date, let me just point out that we have a lot more polling firms and information available here in the United States yet would still be extremely hard-pressed to predict the outcome of our own domestic politics. One example I know I'm going to get a great deal of flak for by citing is the case of Chalabi, who was widely viewed as someone who would more or less fade into obscurity after being cut off from his Western backers since he had no domestic support inside Iraq. Instead, he emerged as a potential candidate for the Iraqi prime ministership and currently occupies a position in the government that his detractors would have assured us would have been impossible back in the spring of 2004. Similarly, Allawi is also still extremely active in Iraqi politics and is currently trying to set up an opposition bloc despite the widespread view among most observers that he was/is a CIA asset.
- A lot of scrutiny is being put on the vote totals in Nineveh and Diyala with good reason, but one question I have is why there's been so much suggestion that the "yes" totals are inflated in southern provinces but next to none on the possibility that there's been any in Anbar or Salahuddin. If anything, it would seem that the Sunnis have more of a reason in terms of simple demographics to cheat than the Shi'ites in the southern provinces do.
Ultimately, I think it's probably best to adopt a "wait and see" policy at this point and wait to see what the Electoral Commission decides. One thing I will advise though, is for those watching the referendum process unfold in Iraq not to use this as an excuse to settle old scores about voting disputes in our own country. In addition to displaying one's own provincialism, this also misses the full scope of the situation for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being that Americans have voted on an entirely new constitution before. The stakes are much, much higher this time around, if for no other reason than that in our own country no political faction maintains well-organized militias on the order of the peshmerga or the Badr Brigades.
In an e-mail conversation with a friend of mine in Washington earlier today, I tried to the best of my ability to explain why I thought the prospects for civil war in Iraq were less likely than are generally believed. One point that I forgot to mention was that at this point all sides seem to be playing the political game except for Zarqawi, whose followers as I noted earlier were going to continue their attacks no matter what happened with respect to the referendum. As long as all the major factions keep playing politics rather than reaching for their weapons, I think that there's a good chance that Iraq is on its way to establishing a stable political system and would consider both Allawi's attempt to form an opposition bloc as well as the news that several major players in the United Iraqi Alliance are planning to run separately in the December election as positive steps in this development. In the interest of seeing that through to its conclusion, I think we would all do well to sit back and see what the Electoral Commission and the international observers have to say on this score.
Dan and Everyone,
I know the news is still coming in, but at this point do you know if this delay is stirring enough doubt to threaten the legitamacy of the vote among a sizable portion of Sunni population?
Any word from the streets of Iraq?
Granted there will always be a number of folks who cry foul (always the "losers", so to speak), but I worry that the hope that this referendum carries might be dashed even before the final count.
Thanks,
DJPR
This one of the major mistakes that Aznar made after 3/11 with respect to the culpability of ETA on similar
A) Aznar did not say that it was ETA, among other things because he usually avoids to pronounce the word ETA. Zapatero, Ibarreche (Basque Regional leader) and Bush all blamed ETA in their first statements during the morning of March 11th.
B) Aznar proved before the Investigation Commission of 3/11 that his Interior Minister Acebes just read the reports that were coming from the Security Corps.
C) How do you know it was not ETA? Evidence aims at the Islamic connection being a smoke screen. El Chino, one of the alleged leaders of 3/11, is married with a non-Muslim Spanish woman that wears a piercing and leather trousers, and has a son that studies in a Catholic School. They all celebrated the Father's day on March 19th, a Catholic festivity (BTW St. Joseph) in the house the bombs were allegedly mounted, though the envelopes of the dynamite cartridges were found in Leganes. This week we have know that Alekhema Lamari, another of the 3/11 leaders, was controlled by the Spanish Intelligence. All three alleged leaders were under surveillance.
Dan, please, support your affirmations with evidence. Otherwise they are just propaganda, and this world has already enough fanatics.
"The Iraqi government has chosen to delay announcing the results of the country's constitutional referendum until Friday while they examine the integrity of the process, with the tallies in Nineveh and Salahuddin appearing as those under the closest scrutiny at the moment. I really don't have that much to add as far as this issue in and of itself goes and I think that the Iraqi Electoral Commission is probably quite wise in making its decision. "
So, I guess you also would agree that the same should have been done right here in the Good O'l US of A, in FLORIDA in 2000 and in OHIO in 2004?
Good to see wingers coming to their senses finally.
Touchdown
In the case of the US in 2000, we had 200 years plus of rules already in place. The Florida Supreme court decided to change the rules mid stream which caused the delays, throw in the tactics of the dems (only recount in 4 dem districts, throwing out military ballots etc) and you have some chaos. But with 200 years of history, the system can withstand some chaos and still function. In ohio you have got to be kidding. What was the finally margin of victory, 97,000 + votes. And then we can discuss the electoral fraud that has happened in St. Louis and Wisconsin during last 2 elections. But in your 2nd election in 2 years, maybe taking the time to eliminate chaos is a good thing -
I've read in various places (sorry, no references) that many Sunnis believe that about half of Iraq is Arab Sunni (i.e. not including the Kurds). In the absence of a reliable census, most informed observers put Arab Sunnis at about 20% of the population.
Thus this ethnic group is in a position to be pre-disgruntled at the referendum results. Obviously, if 'we' are half of the country and most of 'us' voted, and voted No, then the mostly-Yes outcome can only be fraud committed by the Americans' stooges.
Following in the footsteps of #3, Jim Miller posted a balanced discussion of the 2000 election controversies Some readers may need to avert their eyes, as Miller cites examples of misconduct favoring Gore as well as the other way around. No need to comment in this thread, as it is off topic...
#5
In your haste to try to make controversy dissapear, you have missed my simple point, which is...why does it take someone like "Jim Miller" to provide the kind of scrutiny that should have been applied AT THE TIME? Or, to return to Thread Topic, is happening in Iraq now?
You see, instead of letting Democracy take its course, it clearly wass the case that partisan Republicans decided to step in as quickly as possible to stop the process once their boy put his nose out front.
It is of no consolation to those of us who prize the importance of a sytem of checks and balances on power that it might have come out the same in the end...the manipulation of the process itself is the primary concern.
It seems that perhaps it is you who would prefer to avert his eyes from this possibility?
"There's been a lot of talk as to just how much support the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Sunni Endowment actually have in Iraq"
Yea, I suspect it'll turn out they have a big constituency in Ninevah and Diyala, and not so much in Anbar. Since they switched to supporting it at the last minute, that split the Sunni vote in provinces where Sunnis were already diluted. That would account for why what would have been a 50, 60 or 70% no vote if all the suunis voted no, but everyone else voted 'yes', became a 20% no vote in those provinces.
Touchdown #5:
> why does it take someone like "Jim Miller" to provide the kind of scrutiny that should have been applied AT THE TIME?
Last line of that post: "Copyright 2001 by James R. Miller."
> In your haste to try to make controversy dissapear...
> You see, instead of letting Democracy take its course, it clearly wass the case that...
> It seems that perhaps it is you who would prefer to avert his eyes...
Oy.
At the time...by the GOVERNMENT, thick head!
And by your lapse into Yiddish slang, I take it that perhaps it is too much for you to grasp. No bother; every good farmer knows better than to try to cultivate barren soil.
J Aguilar:
It was intended as an off-the-cuff remark, nothing more.
As I recall, Bush won every recount Florida in 2000.
If you saw a log too short, you can't make it longer by continuing to saw.
Heh heh.
. . . one question I have is why there's been so much suggestion that the "yes" totals are inflated in southern provinces but next to none on the possibility that there's been any in Anbar or Salahuddin.
As far as I've seen, the talk about the southern provinces is all coming from the Iraqi Electoral Commission; which seems to be making a great show of diligence in looking for problems in the south where they wouldn't matter, while keeping quite about Nineveh and Diyala where they would.
First compilation on voter participation. The Iraqi Electoral Commission's turnout figures for the 18 provinces:
Baghdad 56%
8 Mainly Shi'ite provinces
54% to 63%
5 Mainly Kurdish provinces
Dohuk 85%
Arbil 90%
Sulaimaniya 75%
Diyala 66%
Babil 72%
2 Mainly Sunni Arab provinces
al-Anbar 32%
Salahaddin 88%
2 Mixed Sunni Arab/Kurdish provinces
Nineveh 58%
Tamim (Kirkuk) 79%
the problem, Seth, is that the IIP is one of the groups questioning the results. So they obviously don't think they have the chops to turn out a big yes vote.