Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from Iraq that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday. This briefing is brought to you by Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended and Andrew Olmsted of Andrew Olmsted dot com.
TOP TOPICS
- The Iraqi government claims it is close to capturing the new leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Ayuub al-Masri. The official, however, followed up his claim with the traditional caveat, God willing, meaning the threat may be more of a hope than a promise.
- A majority of Iraqis want the U.S. out of Iraq, and a growing majority also favor attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq. According to Senator Mike DeWine, we're not in Iraq for the Iraqis, a sentiment that is unlikely to help those poll numbers. (Hat tip: Amygdala.)
Other Topics Today Include: leading terrorist killed; rough Thursday in Baghdad; AQI leader calls on Iraqis to strike U.S.; Cyprus cancels Iraq debts; oil infrastructure problems costing billions; U.S. way behind on reconstruction; al-Sadr losing control; 7,000 security forces fired; waiting to crack down on militias; Sunni leaders pledge to fight insurgency; Carnival of the Liberated; Saudi Arabia plans Iraq fence; Congress bans permanent bases in Iraq; new NIE commissioned; new Woodward book roils Washington.
REPORTS FROM THE FIELD
- British forces in Iraq say they have killed a leading al-Qaida terrorist, Omar al-Farouq, who escaped from a U.S. prison in Afghanistan last year.
- The Iraqi government shut down the capital on Saturday to try to curtail the continuing violence throughout Baghdad.
- The bodies of 40 men were found in Baghdad over a 24 hour period on Thursday. The bodies all showed signs of having been tortured.
- The new leader of al Qaeda in Iraq called on Iraqis to strike back against the West, urging them to kidnap foreigners and take up arms against the occupying forces in Iraq during Ramadan.
- U.S. airstrikes destroyed a house in Baquba on Wednesday after a gun battle with occupants of the house. Eight Iraqis were killed in the firefight and resultant airstrike. Locals claimed the house held only a family of Iraqis.
RECONSTRUCTION & THE ECONOMY
- Cyprus cancelled all its debts on Iraq and confirmed its continual support to reconstruction of Iraq.
- The U.S. is way behind its goals for rebuilding Iraq, and the continuing violence in Iraq threatens to continue to force reconstruction projects back on the schedule.
- Attacks on Iraq's oil infrastructure, criminal activity and old infrastructure have cost Iraq some $16 billion in oil revenues over the past two years, undermining Iraq's attempts to rebuild its energy sector.
- China and Iraq may revive a Hussein-era oil deal that would allow Chinese companies to develop Iraqi oil fields, the first foreign nation permitted to do so in the post-Hussein era.
IRAQI POLITICS
- Sunni and Shiite politicians clashed over a U.S. allegation that a Sunni politican's bodyguard may have helped plan an al Qaeda attack.
- Muqtada al-Sadr reportedly is losing control of his militia as portions break off to become hired guns in Baghdad neighborhoods.
- The Ministry of the Interior has fired more than 7,000 security personnel on charges of corruption.
- The U.S. is waiting for Prime Minister al-Maliki to give the go ahead for U.S. and Iraqi forces to crack down on the burgeoning problem of armed militias competing with the Iraqi military. LTG Peter Chiarelli, second-ranking U.S. general in Iraq, says that it is imperative the Iraqi government deal with the problem of these militias.
- A group of Sunni tribal leaders from Anbar Province met with the Prime Minister on Wednesday to pledge their support to defeating the al Qaeda in Iraq.
- This week's Carnival of the Liberated is up.
THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE
- Saudi Arabia is pushing ahead with plans to build a fence to block terrorists from crossing its 560-mile border with Iraq.
- Congress passed a $70 billion bill to fund operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, including a provision that bars the President from spending money on permanent bases anywhere in Iraq.
- The Bush administration has commissioned a new intelligence report on Iraq. The National Intelligence Estimate will provide a consensus view of all U.S. intelligence agencies regarding the stability of the Iraqi government and the potential for quelling the violence caused by the ongoing insurgency.
- A UN report on Iraq claims that Iraq has provided a recruiting base for al Qaeda. The report claims that al Qaeda is heavily involved in both the fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- A Jordanian military court sent two Jordanian militants to prison for trying to enter Iraq to join the insurgency.
ETCETERA
- Two of the Army's top commanders in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli and Maj. Gen. James D. Thurman, have been selected for new assignments.
- Journalist Bob Woodward has a new book out that claims that the White House disregarded warnings that many more troops were needed in Iraq to put down the budding insurgency, and that the Bush administration is suppressing the full extent of the attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq even now.
- Bilal Hussein, an Iraqi photographer, enters his sixth month in an American jail with no prospect of release despite not having been charged with any crime. The U.S. Army believes Hussein is an insurgent or insurgent sympathizer and has detained him on those suspicions, claiming there is no judicial authority capable of ordering Hussein's release.
- Do you have your GI Bracelet? Many military families fall into financial hardship when the breadwinner is injured or killed. The entire purchase price of the GI Bracelet is donated to support our troops and their families! Please join us to give back to these brave people in their time of need.
- The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops: American, Australian, British, Canadian & Polish. Anyone out there with more information, contact us!
- Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive!
- Many American troops have taken it upon themselves to reconstruct schools and gather learning tools for the children of Iraq. Their efforts have been met with immense gratitude from the local Iraqis and their children. You can help too! Visit Operation Iraqi Children and get involved.
Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know. And if you have a tip for a future Iraq Report, email us at MondayIraqReport(at)windsofchange.net.
"About three-quarters of Iraqis believe that American forces are provoking more conflict than they are preventing in Iraq and that they should be withdrawn within a year, according to a poll conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes, a group from the University of Maryland."
Fine. Anyone can have an opinion on what is best for their country.
"The poll found that 78 percent of Iraqis believe that the American military presence causes more conflict than it prevents, including 97 percent of Sunnis, 82 percent of Shiites and 41 percent of Kurds."
Fine. Agitation for a referendum on swift American withdrawal should logically follow in a democracy.
"The poll also found growing support for attacks on American forces, with 61 percent of the respondents saying they approved, compared with 47 percent in January. Support for the attacks was strongest among Sunnis, at 92 percent. But support among Shiites rose to 62 percent in September from 41 percent in January. Only 16 percent of Kurds favored attacks on American troops."
Not fine.
This means that apart from the American client pseudo-state, it is in general a true statement that Iraqis are our enemies.
Contrary to their vital self-interest, which ought to be enough to overwhelm other factors, every sixth or seventh Kurd is an enemy too.
I think we should internalize these facts deeply.
Apparently, the Muslim disposition to be our enemies is so strong that even in the limit case, many people are in favor of killing us, and if things do not go perfectly - as they are guaranteed not to, with Muslims themselves determining how they will turn out - we can see a majority opinion of half to two thirds in favor of attacks on us.
The theories behind our present policies, aimed at liberating, enriching and strengthening our enemies so that they will be our friends, do not make sense in the light of this. (But maybe even if the theory behind our actions was wrong, our actions were still sensible for other reason. That is what I still claim.)
Even if we should alter our policies, which I would argue, I don't think that's enough. We should alter our underlying thinking so we don't make grave errors in future.
For gamers: in the Muslim world, reaction rolls are on 1d6, with the least favorable result being "favor killing", and we get a -1 on that reaction roll, and no bonuses can alter the reaction roll to eliminate the "1=kill" result.
That deadly bias is not fixed by genes or (contrary to Ralph Peters) by geography, but it does seem to be fixed by the Muslim religion. Logically that would be the case if you look at Muslim dogma, as Robert Spencer has done, and here is some empirical evidence that what is logically true is also practically true.
Religion is an influence, and malign religion is a malign influence. How big an influence? About 15% (I'm figuring that in any society it's reasonable to discount about 1% of people who are crazy enough to approve killing in general.) That's a lot.
We need to take deeply to heart that this is the deal, because it is, and because it is a matter of life and death.
Jack Kelly at Real Clear Politics analyses the data very reasonably, and recommends setting a flexible timetable for withdrawal. (link)
I no longer have a counter-argument to that. As he says, we've worn out our welcome.
The longer we stay, making painful and costly efforts to help Iraqis, the more they will be inclined to take bloody revenge for efforts that their religiously innate hostility will redefine as interference by "crusaders".
That said, if we really can accomplish something critical by staying on an extra year or two, go for it. I don't really care if Iraqis like it or not since they are our enemies anyway.
But, what are we accomplishing that is so valuable? Are we building a better state?
If leaving early rather than late results in a weak Iraqi state, well given that it will be inclined to hostility to us whether it is weak or strong, good.
Those whose interests are not favored by our leaving in the next two years are likely to go from being our shallow and self-interested friends to being true enemies who will reproach us forever for betraying them. Okey-dokey. That is going to happen anyway; this is part of the fixed cost of seeking allies preferentially in the Muslim world.
Oh well, oh well, I feel so good today,
We touched ground on an international runway
Jet propelled back home, from over the seas to the U. S. A.
New York, Los Angeles, oh, how I yearned for you
Detroit, Chicago, Chattanooga, Baton Rouge
Let alone just to be at my home back in ol' St. Lou.
Did I miss the skyscrapers, did I miss the long freeway?
From the coast of California to the shores of Delaware Bay
You can bet your life I did, till I got back to the U. S. A.
Looking hard for a drive-in, searching for a corner café
Where hamburgers sizzle on an open grill night and day
Yeah, and a juke-box jumping with records like in the U.S.A.
Well, I'm so glad I'm livin' in the U.S.A.
Yes. I'm so glad I'm livin' in the U.S.A.
Anything you want, we got right here in the U.S.A.
- Back In The USA (Chuck Berry)
So long friends, and thanks for all the improvised explosive devices!
Of course, since jihad is eternal and the demographics and oil revenues that are turning jihad hatred into acts of war are still going strong, the long war will continue regardless. We'll have to find some other place to kill jihadis in large numbers.
OK.
Next time we should skip the Muslim nation-building nonsense and let our army do what it does best.
I'm baffled by the low level of financial support provided to the families of U.S. military personnel killed or wounded while on serving their country.
The "death gratuity" (who thought up that name?) provided to the families of armed forces men and woman killed while on duty is only $100,000.
Is their anyone at all, left, right or center, that would object to raising that up to, say, $500,000?
Or is there some moral hazard argument that keeps this payment so pitifully low?
And their families are only allowed to stay in government housing for a year?
What's the rush?
It's a safe bet that those 78% of Iraqis would ask "what welcome?"
Seriously though, how could anyone with any knowledge of occupations in that region find these poll results a suprise?
US far behind in Iraq rebuild
From correspondents in Washington
THE US has slumped well short of its goals in rebuilding Iraq, with production in the critical oil sector still languishing below pre-war levels, a government audit warned today.
Targets have also been missed in expanding water and electricity production and a third of Pentagon projects are still to be completed, the Government Accountability Office said in a new report.
OK, why? And more to the point, why are these US goals rather than Iraqi goals?
"The difficult security environment and persistent attacks on US funded infrastructure among other challenges, contributed to project delays, increased costs and cancelling or reducing the scope of some reconstruction projects," the report said.
"The continuing violence may make it difficult for the United States to achieve its goals," the report said, but added that it was not too late for the Defence Department to learn from its past difficulties.
So, given that a growing majority of Iraqis approve of attacks on Americans, it seems these are not Iraqi goals because Iraqis have higher values, like hatred for us. In other words, the Americans are rebuilding the country as well as the Iraqis allow, which is not very well at all.
Problems strike at a key pillar of the US counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq, which depends on reconstruction work to generate jobs to dissuade unemployed Iraqis from joining the insurgency.
Apparently, providing jobs for Iraqis is also an American problem, not an Iraqi problem.
As of the end of June, the United States had obligated more than $US18.9 billion ($25.23 billion) for relief and reconstruction projects in Iraq and spent more than $US14.8 billion ($19.75 billion).
And so America must pay and pay, for what America wants but Iraqis don't want as much as they want dead infidels.
Our model, this model, of war-making is unsound.
It's true there are things in Iraq that still need doing. Mainly, Saddam Hussein needs to be dead. But he's as dead as Iraqis want him to be, since the Americans have put him entirely in the power of the Iraqi government.
I think that sums up the situation.
The war is won, and has been for a long time.
There is no threat of an external invasion that the Americans couldn't easily defeat from the air, and there is no internal security problem Iraqis themselves can't solve whenever they want to. Their army is plenty big enough now.
Iraq now runs as well as Iraqis want it to. It's just that we don't want to face up to what kind of people we liberated, and what priorities they stubbornly exhibit.
This is not a problem that requires the army to loiter around a lot longer as jihad practice for people who are more interested in hatred than in getting a job. It's a problem that calls for a political decision to finally and firmly put responsibility where it belongs, and then leave.