Winds readers may recall some of our Somalia coverage (most recently in October 2006), where a group called the "Council of Islamic Courts" has been working inside that failed state to foster Taliban-style rule. Foreign volunteers, supplies, and money are smuggled in via the short sea route from Yemen; indeed, al-Qaeda has never really left that country since their involvement in the 1991 "Black Hawk Down" affair - and the great encouragement they've acknowledged receiving from the subsequent US retreat.

Short regional history lesson: Ethiopia and Somalia have been at loggerheads for some time in the modern era, going back and forth as clients of various foreign powers and fighting over territory in eastern Ethiopia. For instance, Ethiopia was a Soviet ally during a memorable period that featured the disastrous forced collectivization of agriculture and subsequent deliberate starvation of millions of its people, while Bob Geldof et. al. sang "we are the world" (if the song is burned into your brain, just add it to Marxism's long list of direct and indirect crimes). At the time, Somalia was a non-collapsed state and friendly to the West. Since the implosion of both the Soviet Union and the Mengistu government way back when, the world has changed and mostly-Christian Ethiopia has drifted back toward being a quasi-friendly pretend-democracy in the Horn of Africa. Somalia, meanwhile, plunged into complete state failure and has never recovered. A pathetic rump of a UN-backed government is now set up in Baidoa, but its reach barely extends beyond the city.

As one might guess, Ethiopia has not been pleased to see Taliban III (Son of Taliban is doing very well indeed in Pakistan's frontier provinces) growing on its doorstep. Representatives of the Religion of Peace® in Somalia have been threatening guerrilla war and suicide bombings in Ethiopia's capital of Addis Ababa, plus the creation of a small empire (hey, big surprise) that includes large chunks of Ethiopia, Djibouti (tiny state in critical location, major western naval outpost with Marines and French Foreign Legion as well), and northeastern Kenya. Ethiopia's troops have been mustering near the border, and recently clashed with Islamic Courts armies, driving them into retreat on several fronts. Given the poor state of Ethiopia's army as demonstrated by performances around Eritrea, this is better performance than I would have expected.

Ethiopia doesn't intend to stay, and their strategic rationale is actually pretty intelligent. One can expect this front to display a lot of back-and-forth over the next few years as the Quest for Islamic Empire™ continues in the region, and Ethiopia may not be the only foreign participant. The Associated Press has some coverage, and it's actually pretty good. Call it a Boxing Day miracle....