Last summer, Israel invaded southern Lebanon in response to Hezbollah's cross-border kidnapping of Israeli soldiers and the murder of others. I did a lot of posting about the war as it progressed. "Progress" is an inapt word to use, though, since the IDF contended not only with its Hezbollah enemy, but a ham-handed and militarily inexperienced political leadership in the persons of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz.
On Aug. 11, I wrote,Ehud Olmert's days are numbered as prime minister. The slapdash, haphazard and wholly indecisive way he has handled the Hezbollah war has doomed his chances of remaining in office past the end of this year, probably before then and maybe very soon.Well, obviously, PM Olmert is still in office, so I mis-predicted (I've just invented a Bushism!) Olmert's demise. But maybe only as a matter of time rather than fact.
JERUSALEM (AP) - A government commission that probed Israel's summer war against Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon accused Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday of "severe failure," saying he hastily led the country into the conflict without a comprehensive plan.Stay tuned.A copy of the report obtained by The Associated Press cited a "severe failure in the lack of judgment, responsibility and caution." ...
According to TV reports confirmed by Israeli officials, the commission appointed by Olmert and chaired by a retired judge, Eliyahu Winograd, aims withering criticism at Olmert and Peretz over their decision- making, inexperience and failure to question plans presented by the military. ...
The Winograd panel does not have the authority to fire officials, but the scathing report could ignite public protests and demonstrations, coupled with political infighting, that could force the resignation of Olmert and Peretz. Noisy public demonstrations were expected to back demands that they step down.
Already Sunday, a demand their for resignations came from Labor Party lawmaker Ofir Pines-Paz, who is challenging Peretz for party leadership in a May primary election.
"They should follow the example of Halutz, who did not wait for the Winograd commission to show him the door," he said.
Opposition lawmakers from the dovish Meretz as well as the hard-line National Religious Party also called for the government to step down.
Update: Reuters: "Israeli media predicts Olmert resignation."
It will happen when everyone decides that they are ready for it to happen, ie. when they are able to exploit the situation the most.
Olmert did not do well as a leader under wartime conditions last year. He will probably have the unwanted chance to show if he learned & improved this year. Nothing like getting it right the first time around....but getting it right the second time around is useful too.
Guy like that is liable to swing too far the other direction and blunder even worse. Olmert just has no feel for military matters, which means he doesnt know who to listen to or stand up to. Say what you want about Bush, he at least has a belief system in this regard. Olmert just plays it day by day like a political contest. This is the worst possible scenario.
Olmert has no natural backbone or stubborness to give him good instincts- sort of a Jimmy Carter type in that respect. Some of the best American leaders have had no military experience- but they had a natural toughness and savvy that allowed them to learn (Lincoln, FDR, even Kennedy in his limited time). But guys that just dont have that instinct are incredibly dangerous. They are kind of like an autistic in this regard- all they can do is copy what they see around them and what they register is expected of them, they can never understand the underlying cause and effect. War is about will power at its end, and a guy with little inate will power or confidence has lost before he begins. Sometimes they lash out in desperation and overreact, which we could well see. But what they almost always do that is disasterous is pull their forces back on the brink of success, creating fruitless victories. So even if you win you lose. I consider Ehut Olmert the most dangerous man in the Middle East at the moment.
Donald,
Olmert has a 2% approval rating in Israeli political polls.
Those political polls have a 3% margin of error. It may well be that Olmert has no political support in the Israeli public.
The only thing that has kept Olmert in power is the corrupt politicians around him that know they are a minimum of 20 years in the political winderness after the Olmert government falls.
That reality hasn't changed and Olmert will have to be dead before he gives up power prior to his government's term ending.
"Olmert will have to be dead before he gives up power ..."
Israel doesn't have a way to force an election or impeach the SOB? I thought they were a democracy. That's just as bad as France, if they can't throw the bum out.
It's a parliamentary system. However, an attack on Israel might trigger a revolt the way the debacle in France produced Churchill to supplant Chamberlain.
All good comments, but consider:
Israel's economy is booming. The shekel is up, the employment rate is sky high. All under Olmert's government. Will those things put a tamper on popular sentiment to force him out? Some Israeli commentati say yes, others no. As well, there are no good candidates to take the PM slot. I also said back on Aug. 11 that Netanyahu would succeed Olmert, but it would appear now that that doesn't even qualify as a "mis-prediction."
Olmert is also renowned for his stubborness. So the coming days will be interesting for observers of Israeli politics. But if Olmert hasn't resigned or announced new elections with a month, then he's not going to.
That's not to say that he might throw Amir Peretz overboard, though.
Ah yes, sweet democracy. At least, he's better than #@$@#%.
Rev. Sensing --
You can't spend money if you are dead. I expect the fear of a new war by Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria to propel someone like Netanyahu.
Israel has lost the deterrence effect of military superiority, and it can be expected that a new assault on Israel will happen shortly.
"JERUSALEM (AP) - A government commission that probed Israel's summer war against Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon accused Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday of "severe failure," saying he hastily led the country into the conflict without a comprehensive plan.
A copy of the report obtained by The Associated Press cited a "severe failure in the lack of judgment, responsibility and caution." ..."
Gosh, this reminds me of the leader of another country at war in the Middle East....who could it be...."hastily led the country into the conflict without a comprehensive plan....severe failure in the lack of judgment, responsibility, and caution...."...hang on, it will come to me....