Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Peace Like a River and Security Watchtower.
Top Topics
- A Los Angeles Times report on Saturday indicated that Iran could have a nuclear weapon within three years, an estimate previously put forth by former nuclear weapons inspector David Albright. In a speech in southern Iran on Saturday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that the "threats and intimidations by the West against Iran's nuclear programme will not hinder the final victory to be that of the Iranian nation."
- Israeli security forces were placed on high alert on Sunday, 48 hours before the Israeli elections take place. According to Israeli radio "more than 70 warnings of planned terror attacks were registered, 16 of them 'focused' warnings." In the latest poll, Kadima still enjoys a large lead over Labor and Likud.
- Pakistani forces using helicopter gunships killed up to 20 pro-Taliban militants near the Afghan border today, after an attack on a security post left one soldier dead, officials said. The fighting in the restive district of North Waziristan came a day after President Pervez Musharraf ordered foreign al-Qaeda militants to quit Pakistani tribal areas bordering Afghanistan or be killed.
- British citizens were shocked to hear that a terrorist cell linked to Al-Qaeda plotted to bomb pubs, nightclubs and trains in an intense, coordinated terrorist attack in the United Kingdom. These reports emanated from the trial of terror suspects in London's courthouse, the Old Bailey. One alleged member of the terrorist cell, Mohammed Babar, a Pakistani-born American citizen who has pleaded guilty in New York to a role in the British bomb plot, is expected to testify against the British defendants.
Other topics today include: Blank check for Palestinian terrorists; Iranian oil interests; US and Iran to talk; Airstrike in Gaza; Hamas fighting with Fatah; Turkish forces clash with Kurds; majority Palestinians support terrorism & train their kids to do the same; UN wants Hezbollah to join Lebanon's army; PFLP-GC pressured to move operations to Syria; Sharm el-Sheikh suspects charged; Moussaoui trial; update on Lodi trial; more on NSA wiretaps; Terror attacks down in Chechnya; al Qaeda recruiting Azeri girls; Qu'ran controversy in Dagestan; Protests in Belarus; Tamil Tigers still kidnapping and arming children; More fighting in Nepal; ETA ceasefire; Taliban hideout in Uruzgan attacked; Fighting continues in Helmand province; Taliban vow suicide bombings; Clashes in Baluchistan; Bioterror threat in Asia; US bases in Bulgaria ok'd; fighting in Somalia; Libya to stay on terror list; GSPC kills mayor; and more.
Iran & the Middle East
- Incoming Palestinian interior minister Saeed Seyam, chosen by Hamas to oversee three security services, essentially handed Palestinian terrorists a blank check to attack Israel when he said "the day will never come when any Palestinian would be arrested because of his political affiliation or because of resisting the occupation," adding that "the file of political detention must be closed."
- Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is warning Hamas that without recognition of Israel they have no future and the Palestinian government would fail.
- Despite terror warnings, Israel agreed to reopen the Karni crossing between Gaza and Egypt this past weekend. The move is one of several steps taken by Israel under pressure from the United States.
- Israeli Chief of Staff Dan Halutz indicated on Friday that he believes Hamas may soften their stance with the obligations and responsibilities that come with governing, but currently they "present themselves as an enemy of Israel."
- According to Olivier Guitta, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is angry over Qatar's alliance to the US and Israel. In the event of war between the United States and Iran the "Revolutionary guards are threatening to attack Qatari oil and gas facilities by sea and air. They plan to use suicide boats and air missiles."
- On Sunday, the al-Rashideen Army in Iraq released a seven-minute video with an open letter to President Bush included.
- David R. Francis writes in the Christian Science Monitor that any move by Iran to cut off oil supplies would be economic suicide for a government that receives 90 percent of their revenues from the sale of oil.
- There are growing indications that the United States and Iran may hold direct talks over issues in Iraq, a move that Amir Taheri says may be a major mistake. On Saturday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the British of plotting against Iran.
- Israeli aircraft fired two missiles at a carload of al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade members on Monday morning in Gaza city, missing their target and wounding two.
- Hamas leaders in Kalkilya have been targeted in assassination attempts in what many describe as continued fighting between Hamas and Fatah. One Hamas official complained that "ever since we won the municipal election, we have been subjected to a campaign of intimidation and incitement by Fatah activists." How ironic.
- Turkish army soldiers backed by helicopter gunships are carrying out large operations in the Mur province, near the Iraqi border. On Saturday, 11 Kurdish militant members of the PPK were killed in clashes with the army.
- Hamas continues to promote terrorism and violence among Palestinian children, with the latest display taking place at the Palestinian Children's Festival. A poll released on Sunday indicates that 60 percent of Palestinians are opposed to Hamas recognizing the state of Israel.
- UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen doesn't believe it is possible to disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon, as outlined in UNSC 1559 and stated "Our goal is to integrate Hezbollah into the Lebanese army."
- According to Lebanese sources, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) is being pressured to move operations from Lebanon to Syria in an effort to reduce international pressure on Prime Minister Fuad Siniora.
- The High State Security Prosecutor in Egypt has charged 13 terror suspects of involvement in a series of blasts in Sharm el-Sheikh in July last year.
America Domestic Security & the Americas
- Prosecutors concluded their case for executing Zacarias Moussaoui with a step-by-step account of how they possibly could have identified most of the Sept. 11 hijackers if the al-Qaida conspirator had confessed when he was arrested a month before the suicide attacks.
- The Sacramento, Calif., trial of accused terrorist Hamid Hayat isn't going well for prosecutors six weeks along, a juror who was excused told reporters. Andrea Clabaugh, 39, said on leaving the court the case wasn't "very clear-cut," and if she had to decide now she would vote to acquit Hayat.
- The government does not have to tell three men accused of illegally sending $3.5 million to Yemen whether secret wiretaps were used to investigate them, a judge has ruled. Without explanation, U.S. District Judge William Skretny denied the defense request for information in a one-page decision dated Tuesday. He said he had reviewed the government's classified response to the January request in private.
- The National Security Agency could have legally monitored ordinarily confidential communications between doctors and patients or lawyers and their clients, the Justice Department said yesterday of its controversial warrantless surveillance program. Responding to questions from Congress, the department also said it sees no prohibition to using information collected under the NSA's program in court.
- Trina Magi, a UVM librarian, has traveled across the country, publicly fighting the law that opponents say infringes on free speech and abuses Americans' rights to privacy. This month's reauthorization of the Patriot Act, Magi said, does little to appease critics, despite revisions in the law that were meant to improve safeguards on civil liberties. Magi's stance is backed by local librarians and the American Library Association, which has battled for reforms in the act since it was passed four years ago in the wake of Sept. 11.
- The U.S. Justice Department's indictment of 50 individuals allegedly tied to Colombia's largest narco-trafficking group could backfire, according to a policy expert from American University, by increasing the chances that Colombia's current president - an American ally - will lose his re-election bid. Emilio Viano, a professor in the School of Public Affairs at American University in Washington, D.C., added that the indictments, announced Wednesday by U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, "could just be a propaganda gesture" on the part of the Bush administration.
- An American said he had "done nothing" wrong as a Bolivian judge formally charged him and his Uruguayan lover with murder Thursday in the hotel bombings that killed two people and wounded seven in La Paz. Triston Jay Amero, 24, and his pregnant partner, Alda Ribeiro, 45, were ordered held in preventive detention by Judge Williams Davila, who said he would consider a psychiatric evaluation for Amero and a medical exam for Ribeiro.
- Argentina's president grimly shouted "Never Again!" as he marked Friday's 30th anniversary of a military coup by remembering the thousands of people killed during the ensuing seven-year dictatorship. The country somberly recalled the March 24, 1976 coup that toppled the constitutional government of Maria Estela Martinez de Peron, widow of former strongman Juan Domingo Peron, and ushered in a "Dirty War" against dissidents.
- The murder conspiracy trial of the incarcerated leader of the Jamaat al Muslimeen, Imam Yasin Abu Bakr, was adjourned last week for a third time this year without a date being fixed for the matter to begin.
Russia, Caucasus & Central Asia
- A large weapons cache was discovered in Chechnya on Sunday, containing a large amount of explosives, two mines, a self-made explosive device, a flame thrower, 16 82-mm artillery shells, 13 rounds for grenade launchers, nine grenades and 3,800 cartridges of various caliber weapons.
- Azerbaijani National Security Minister Eldar Mahmudov says that al Qaeda is attempting to recruit Azeri girls to carry out suicide attacks.
- According to Chechen President Alu Alkhanov, the number of terrorist attacks has been on the decline, saying "only two serious terrorist acts were committed last year, and 70 terrorist acts were averted."
- Muslim leaders in the Russian Federation are demanding that the Russian government punish militia officers responsible for the desecration of a Koran in a Dagestani village earlier this month - or face the prospect of protests across the country and the expansion of violence in the northern Caucasus.
- Hundreds of Belarusian opposition activists were still in jail yesterday, and the location of one of their top leaders remained unknown one day after mass crackdowns by the government. Gateway Pundit has a run down of the protests and photos.
- On Saturday authorities discovered a fragmentation mine in Shtyba Square in downtown Vladikavkaz, and disarmed the explosive before it detonated by an attached timer.
- The Russian Interior Ministry announced they will use unmanned aerial drones to help provide security for the July G8 summit in St. Petersburg. It will mark the first time Russian police units have deployed UAVs.
Afghanistan & Southern Asia
- Children are still being kidnapped by Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers to train as fighters, the UN children's agency Unicef says, but the abductions appear to be less frequent four years into a ceasefire. The number of children taken by the Tigers has fallen every year since a 2002 ceasefire halted two decades of civil war, Unicef senior programme co-ordinator Yasmin Ali Haque said, but child recruitment was still continuing at an unacceptable level.
- Six Tamil Tiger rebels have died after blowing up their vessel off Sri Lanka's north-west coast, the military says. The blast came as the navy approached the rebel boat which was suspected of gun-running, a military spokesman said.
- Insisting that it did not habour terrorists, Bangladesh on Wednesday said ties with India could not improve as long as this 'erroneous impression' remained. "This is an erroneous impression. As long as this erroneous impression remains, relations between India and Bangladesh cannot improve", Bangladesh Finance Minister M Saifur Rahman said on the last day of a three-day visit by Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.
- In Nepal, the Supreme Court (SC) on Thursday upheld Section 9 of the Terrorists and Disruptive Activities (Control and Punishment) Ordinance of 2005 that authorises the government to slap a person in preventive detention for up to a year without prosecution or trial.
- Thirteen civilians have been killed in a landmine blast carried out by suspected Maoists in the central Indian state of Chattisgarh, police say. Four others are said to be seriously injured in the blast which took place in the state's Kanker district.
- For the second day in a row, government forces clashed with Maoist insurgents in this Himalayan kingdom on Tuesday, leaving at least 33 people dead. The Nepalese Army shot dead about 20 people believed to be Maoist guerrillas in the Dhading district, about 45 miles southwest of this capital, an army spokesman said.
- Growing international pressure on Afghanistan to respect the religious freedom of a Christian convert was met in Afghanistan on Friday by a clamour of calls for the man to be executed for denying Islam. The controversy over 40-year-old Abdur Rahman, whose trial is due to begin next week, threatens to drive a wedge between Afghanistan and Western countries that are ensuring its security and bankrolling its development. There are reports Rahman could be released soon.
- An Afghan court on Sunday dismissed a case against a man who converted from Islam to Christianity because of a lack of evidence and he will be released soon, officials said. The announcement came as U.S.-backed President Hamid Karzai faced mounting foreign pressure to free Abdul Rahman, a move that risked angering Muslim clerics here who have called for him to be killed.
- According to the report of Radio Kabul, Gen Rehmatullah Yousafi said that the Afghan National army carried out an attack on a hideout of the Taliban in Rahton area of the Uruzgan province that resulted in killing four of them. He said that ANA seized huge quantity of arms and communication devices from the Taliban. While another Talib was killed in a clash with the motorway police of the Uruzgan province.
- A U.S. soldier has been killed and another wounded in a battle with about 20 Taliban fighters in southern Afghanistan, the U.S. military says. An Afghan National Army Soldier was also wounded in Saturday's fight, the military said. The battle, which included small arms fire and close-air support aircraft, took place in the Sangin District of Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan, the military said.
- Several militants and soldiers are feared dead as fierce fighting erupted between Taliban and government forces in the Sangin district of the southern Helmand province Saturday morning. Akhtar Mohammad, eye-witness and resident of the area, told Pajhwok Afghan News he had seen six coalition helicopters bombing the Khwaja Ali village. However, he had no reports about casualties.
- The senior Taliban commander in Afghanistan's lawless Helmand province has vowed to unleash a brigade of 600 suicide bombers against the British Army when it arrives in the area this summer. In a rare interview given at a hideout on the Pakistani border, Mullah Razayar Noorzai said the chance to take on British troops was a "great honour".
- Pakistan's military airdropped pamphlets this week over towns in restive tribal regions near the Afghan border urging tribesmen to shun "foreign terrorists", saying they were part of a Hindu and Jewish plot.
- Police said Saturday they had arrested 57 tribesmen in connection with a string of bomb and rocket attacks in southwest Pakistan that killed more than 250 people in just over a year. The arrests began Friday and the suspects were being held for questioning.
- At least three people are said to have died in Pakistan's Balochistan province during clashes between security forces and suspected tribal militants. An official in Dera Bugti district said the violence broke out when a group of armed tribesmen tried to take over a security post.
- Sayed Salahuddin, the leader of Pakistan-based terror outfit Hizbul Mujahideen who was reportedly detained early this month by Pakistani authorities, has appeared in public in the country's Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). Local channel Geo TV showed a brief footage of him addressing an international conference.
- Members of the special taskforce for interrogation (TFI) continued quizzing the chief of banned JMB Shaikh Abdur Rahman and second in command of JMB and JMJB chief Siddiqul Islam alias Bangla Bhai at Uttara RAB-1 office in the city. Sources said both Shaikh and Bangla Bhai have given some important clues to TFI members during the interrogation. Meanwhile, Comilla police has raided some 100 houses following the confessional statements of three arrested JMB terrorists, but police failed to nab any JMB militants during the drive.
- Bangladesh’s militant leader Shaikh Abdur Rahman, who is in police custody, established international links of his militant outfit Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) with the help of chief of yet another outfit Ahle Hadith Andolan, Bangladesh (Ahab) Dr Asadullah al Galib, intelligence sources said in Dhaka
- Lashker-e-Taiba militants on Sunday attacked an Army convoy on the Srinagar-Jammu national highway killing a jawan and wounding six while one of the ultras was killed in the return fire. Heavily-armed militants hurled grenades and fired indiscriminately at the convoy, on way to Jammu, near Drangbal-Pampore, some 14 kms from Srinagar, at around 9.15 am, a Defence spokesman said.
Far East & Southeast Asia
- Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is vowing to "sweep disloyalty out of our house once and for all" in response to recent coup attempts launched by officers in the Filipino military. The Army recommended 20 officers face court-martial for their role in conspiring with communist rebels to overthrow Arroyo's government.
- Hot weather, crowded communities, and weak public health systems have turned Southeast Asia into a breeding ground for SARS and bird flu. Experts are now warning that the region’s vulnerability to infectious disease "could prove devastating in the event of a bioterror attack." Some of the region’s Islamic terrorists are believed to be interested in acquiring disease-causing agents or toxins, and any nation allied with the United States is said to be a potential target.
- While the Australian federal budget isn't due out until May 9th, government sources are reporting that the military is slated to received an additional $ 430 million to the military budget to fund new weapons purchases, assist in recruitment and create an elite force of 3,000 highly skilled ready-reservists that can deploy abroad in thirty days and act in support of the Australian Defense Force (ADF).
- According to Papua New Guinean Catholic bishop Giles Cote, foreign extremists from the Philippines and other locations are moving into Papua with the blessing of the Indonesian military. Cote said their information indicated that "jihad militants are in Papua to do the dirty work of the police and military."
- North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il has visited his military troops six times in the last week in an apparent response to joint military exercises with South Korea and the United States. On Saturday the despot said "Our army and people are turning out as one in the sacred anti-U.S. struggle with burning hatred for the U.S. imperialist aggressors and the unshakable resolution to take revenge upon them."
Europe
- Bulgaria will allow the United States to use several military bases in the country, giving American forces a jumping-off point closer to potential hotspots in the Middle East, officials said Friday. Ambassador Lyubomir Ivanov, Bulgaria's chief negotiator, and U.S. Ambassador John Beyrle told reporters the new agreement will go for a last review by both governments. The deal is expected to be signed by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice when she visits Bulgaria during an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers at the end of April.
- One of the men accused of plotting bomb attacks in the UK discussed poisoning football fans by contaminating beer cans and burgers, a witness has said. Babar earlier told the court he had given three computers to Waheed Mahmood after meeting him in Pakistan because he was told they were needed by al-Qaeda.
- The first permanent ceasefire called by the militant Basque separatist group ETA has come into effect. A column at NRO by Rafael L. Bardají argues we shouldn't put too much stock in this ceasefire. "ETA has made this declaration because it believes it can best obtain its aims by leaving its weapons silenced for the time being. The terrorists have left violence aside, but not their weapons — nothing has been said about handing those over."
- For almost two years, intelligence services around the world tried to uncover the identity of an Internet hacker who had become a key conduit for al-Qaeda. The savvy, English-speaking, presumably young webmaster taunted his pursuers, calling himself Irhabi -- Terrorist -- 007. Only later, according to our sources familiar with the British probe, was Tsouli's other suspected identity revealed. British investigators eventually confirmed to us that they believe he is Irhabi 007.
- In the third and final part of his series about young Muslims in Europe, Roger Hardy visits a reputed hub of Islamic radicalism.
Africa
- Heavy fighting between rival Somali militia linked to Islamic courts and a new "anti-terror" alliance has killed about 90 people in the last three days in the capital, Mogadishu, residents and local radio said on Friday.
- The United States is keeping Libya on its list of state sponsors of terrorism, even though the North African country has become a good partner on security matters, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday. Next month when the State Department publishes its annual Patterns of Global Terrorism report, Libya will remain on the list, Henry Crumpton, the U.S. State Department's coordinator for counterterrorism, told Reuters while in Colombia for a regional security conference.
- Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has pledged his support to Hamas after meeting with Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Tripoli late on Thursday. Earlier in the day he gave a lecture via video link to an audience at Columbia University and declared that Libya was the only real democracy in the world.
- Algerian militants killed five civilians, including a mayor, stepping up attacks days after the start of an amnesty for rebels aimed at ending more than a decade of strife, residents and newspapers said overnight. Suspected members of al Qaeda-linked group the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) shot dead mayor Brahim Jellab outside his house on Friday night in Boumerdes province, 50 km east of the capital Algiers, residents said.
- On Saturday, Nigeria announced that they will transfer former Liberian leader Charles Taylor back to Liberia where he has been indicted on war crimes for his role in a 14-year civil war that took 250,000 lives.
- On Tuesday, Sudan is expected to appeal to other Arab nations to support opposition of foreign intervention in Darfur. Sudanese President Omar el-Beshir vowed that Darfur would become "a cemetery" for any foreign troops deployed without Khartoum's permission.
The Global War
- The war on terror will continue long after Iraq and Afghanistan are stable, Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told military officials from around the world Friday. Speaking at the Global Terrorism and International Cooperation Symposium, Pace called for patience and collaboration, repeating U.S. assertions that it will be a long campaign.
- By using contract employees for intelligence work, government agencies lose control over those doing this sensitive work, and an element of profit is inserted into what is being done. The office of Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte has quietly begun to study the contracting issue because "it already is a problem," a senior intelligence official said in a recent interview. A related concern for intelligence agencies inside and outside the Pentagon is that the government is training people and granting them security clearances, and they then leave for better pay offered by contractors, sometimes to do the same work.
- The First Family of Jihad takes a look at the ideological divide between Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Huthaifa Azzam, which resembles the divide in the late 1980s that existed between Osama bin Laden and Azzam's father, Abdullah.
- A meeting of more than 300 prominent Islamic scholars and muftis in Bahrain has proposed an international organization to defend the Prophet Mohammad against defamatory attacks, with legal, economic, media and liaison offices. The International Conference for Defending the Prophet also recommended the establishment of an international fund to support conferences to be held annually in Islamic countries and at least once in Europe.
- Following the US Treasury Departments freezing of al-Manar assets this past Thursday, the Hezbollah television station shrugged it off and said they could still broadcast into US homes. The station manager called it "an assault on an objective and professional media group" and claimed he had "information that the Zionist lobby in the United States is behind it."
- A U.S. delegation led by Senator John Warner visited Turkey and met with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for discussions on several issues, including the Iranian nuclear program, the situation in Iraq, and the PPK.
- Madeline Albright is calling on President Bush to disavow any plans for regime change in Iran, saying "U.S. endorsement of that goal only makes it less likely." Daniel McKivergan points out the inconsistency of her position.
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The past and future of warfare, with an explanation of logarithmically declining war deaths over time.