Nathan's Asia -stans Summary: 2003-09-24

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia, courtesy of former Peace Corps volunteer Nathan Hamm of The Argus. All I can say is: wow.

TOP TOPIC

• India's former ambassador to Uzbekistan presents a clear picture of the shadowy great power competition in Central Asia. These competing influences has led to little multilateral policy coordination, leaving none of the three powers dominant in the area. As a result, Central Asia's governments have been able to pick and choose benefits without firmly committing themselves to a particular camp.

Other Topics Today Include: Al-Qaeda's 2,000 men in Central Asia; Confessions of a terrorist; China and Russia's own Great Game moves; The Taliban's changing tactics; America's "new" plan for Afghanistan is more of the same, literally; Attacks on human rights activists rise in Uzbekistan; India-Israel cooperation leaves Pakistan in the cold; Azeri election; Missionaries are buying converts and drawing ire; and a look at the state of education in the region.

Regional Security

• As Al-Qaeda turns on Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, it plans to unleash attacks against U.S. interests across Central Asia. Leaders claim to have 2,000 Uzbeks and Chechens ready for terrorist operations.

• Azizbek Karimov, a confessed Uzbek terrorist (not related to the country's President), provides a fascinating look at one of those 2,000 Uzbeks and Chechens. If his story is true, he does not particularly support groups such as Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Instead, he became involved in Islamic terror through circumstance and having little else to do in life. Initially drawn to righting perceived wrongs, Azizbek quickly became disillusioned with the nihilism of Islamic terrorists and claims to be haunted by guilt over his crimes.

• China is pushing to institutionalize the structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organizationand to discuss stronger economic cooperation among SCO members (China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan) in a meeting of the group to take place this week. This urge to strengthen the SCO comes from China's desire to counter American influence and military presence on its western frontier. China has played its diplomatic hand extremely well in this regard, expanding its influence by echoing U.S. anti-terrorist statements.

• In a Great Game move of their own, Russia and Kyrgyzstan have finally agreed on a Russian airbase to be a mere 18 miles from the U.S. base at Manas, near Bishkek. This is the first purely Russian military base opened overseas in the history of the Russian Federation. The base will house 20 aircraft and 300 soldiers.

• Uzbekistan, eternally the odd man out in Central Asia, is in a difficult position, trying to keep equal distance from Russia, China, and the United States.

Afghanistan

• Security is only one of the major concerns in Afghanistan. Delays by international donors are adding to Afghanistan's woes. In a new report, the relief organization CARE notes that donors have mostly failed to come through on their promises of the already paltry sum of $4.5 billion over five years.

• In other development news from Afghanistan, the new U.S. plan to change the face of American aid in the country turns out to be more of the same, literally. Rather than transform reconstruction efforts to more closely resemble those in Iraq, the "new" plan is to put more money and resources into existing initiatives. As expected though, President Bush has appointed Zalmay Khalilzad the new U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan.

• Taliban officials exude confidence. Taliban officials say that they plan to expel U.S. forces with a slow, costly conflict. Their stunningly brilliant argument is that it costs the U.S. a lot of money to fly planes while their landmines are cheap. More alarming though is their determination to kill Hamid Karzai and any foreign or Afghan aid workers they accuse of spying. Taliban officials say that they receive significant aid and shelter in the southeastern provinces, and Afghan officials agree. The International Crisis Group argues that Pashtun feelings of alienation cause this support for the Taliban.

• The press has made much of the Taliban's resurgence of late. Darren Kaplan convincingly argues that it is to be short lived.

• On September 9th, Afghan officials marked the second anniversary of Ahmed Shah Massood's assassination at the hands of Al-Qaeda. Schoolgirls walked to his grave carrying banners reading "Death to Osama" and "Osama, you martyred our hero!" The Afghan Voice remembers him.

• India has been very active in the region, particularly in Afghanistan. Both India and Pakistan's embassies in Afghanistan are swamped, but it is India's that is busy with businessmen and diplomats looking to play a major role in the new Afghanistan. This extension of the India-Pakistan rivalry has led to some positive results such as a road-building spree. At the same time, the competition has its fair share of traded accusations. For example, India blames the recent grenade attack on its embassy on ISI-trained terrorists.

• Indian-Israeli cooperation has made Pakistan the odd man out in Afghanistan. India and Israel are reportedly agitating among Pashtun nationalists for a "Pashtun land" that straddles the disputed Durand Line that divides the Pasthun populations of Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is much reason for skepticism as the only source for these reports appears to be Pakistan's ISI. (JK: but strategically, it's a good response for India to Kashmir.)

• Afghans are taking public works into their own hands as the government is unable to deliver. Whether good or bad, this undeniably shows a strong civic spirit and dedication to improving the country among Kabulis.

And the rest

• Eurasianet takes a look at the state of education in Central Asia. Though many of the problems they mention are quite serious, your humble author comments on a lot of other serious problems noticed working in the Uzbek school system, including widespread bribery, low teacher wages, the systematic destruction of good texts, and the use of student labor during the autumn cotton harvest.

• Discussion on water problems in Central Asia usually focus on the region's poor irrigation system, the cotton monoculture, and better regional cooperation on water. However, chances are good that the glaciers of the Tien Shan mountains will disappear within twenty years. Many of Central Asia's rivers are primarily fed by glacial melt and the loss of these glaciers would only make this problem into a disaster.

• Mormon missionaries are the newest group seeking converts to arrive in Kyrgyzstan. The church's plan to send missionaries depends on the government's decision to recognize the faith. If they are recognized, they will join a number of other church's that have thrived by offering incentives such as free English and computer classes, foreign scholarships, business loans, or even flour and imported food. Needless to say, Muslim and Orthodox leaders are wary of allowing yet another faith in to "poach" their followers.

• Leading up to Uzbekistan's September 1st independence day, the country experienced a crackdown on human rights activists. This presents a touchy situation for the U.S. On the one hand, failing to openly criticize allies like the Uzbek government invites charges of hypocrisy. At the same time, Uzbekistan tends to respond to public criticism with more crackdown, while the quiet diplomacy traditionally employed by the U.S. has made an impact in the past. And if U.S.-Uzbek relations are not already enough of a mess, a custody battle in New Jersey courts involving President Karimov's grandchildren only complicates matters.

• Meanwhile, Ruslan Sharipov, the human rights activist and journalist jailed on charges of homosexuality, has gotten word of his conditions out. He claims to have been tortured to gain a confession and to have been forced to prepare a suicide note in the event of his death in custody. I have learned through one of his former teachers, a Returned Peace Corps Volunteer, that Senator Russ Feingold has expressed concern over the Bush administrations failure to put greater pressure on the Uzbek government over the case.

• A South Korean has been appointed a deputy minister in Uzbekistan. Robert of the Marmot's Hold comments on South Korea's important role in Uzbekistan's post-Soviet economy (really, you have to scroll past his praise for me to get to it though!).

• Azeris choose a new president on October 15th. Because current president Heidar Aliyev continues to be ill, boldness in public expression by opposition candidates has made the race a rarity for the region. Opposition candidates have become more confrontational, trying to energize voters outside of Baku who feel that they have not received the benefits of the country's oil and gas boom. The government has shown alarm and gone to great lengths to stifle protests. Despite this boldness, Aliyev's son, Ilham, is expected to win because the opposition has been unable to unite behind a single candidate.

The next installment of The Argus' Central Asia briefing will appear October 22. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Eurasian events can be found at The Argus.