Winds of Change.NET: Liberty. Discovery. Humanity. Victory.

Formal Affiliations
  • Anti-Idiotarian Manifesto
  • Euston Democratic Progressive Manifesto
  • Real Democracy for Iran!
  • Support Denamrk
  • Million Voices for Darfur
  • milblogs
Syndication
 Subscribe in a reader

Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary: 2004-04-20

| 5 Comments | 4 TrackBacks

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.

TOP TOPIC

Other Topics Today Include: Much More on the Tashkent Bombings; Georgia's Parliamentary Elections; The Ajarian Thorn in Georgia's Side; I Love You Turkmenbashi!; Armenia Protests; China's Designs on Central Asia; When Congressmen Get Involved in Custody Cases; Sgt. Hook: Live From a Mountaintop in Afghanistan; Coolio Comes to Baku; and, Much More.

TERROR IN UZBEKISTAN

  • The nature of the Uzbek government's control of the media, coupled with the ignorance of the Western press when it comes to Central Asia, makes it very hard to know exactly what happened and where. In the words of one reporter questions outnumber answers. For the curious and adventurous, I refer you to EurasiaNet's Uzbekistan Archive, which contains numerous stories written by locals and knowledgeable experts. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Central Asia Report has a good report on the attacks and their aftermath.
  • It should also be noted that Uzbekistan and Russia may not reall walk off into the sunset together. Following the attacks in Tashkent, there was a nasty war of words between the Uzbek and Russian media.
  • Following the attacks, every major newspaper in the world seemed to have storebought analysis ready. To find the wheat among the chaff is a challenge. In my opinion, Chris Seiple's analysis is the best you'll find. For another view, see Ariel Cohen's TCS column despite my extensive problems with it.
  • The Uzbek government initially blamed Hizb ut-Tahrir, a nasty but peaceful group, and there was rampant speculation in the press about who was to blame. In a letter to Centrasia.ru (in Russian & Uzbek, here's a sloppy translation), a previously unknown group calling itself "Islamic Jihad" (not any of the other groups going by that name) took responsibility. Uzbek authorities have started referring to the guilty party as Jamoat ("society") and say they have 350-400 members, a quarter of whom have been trained as militants.
  • The CSM looks at why Uzbekistan's suicide bombers were mostly women.
  • There are reports that, having lost their refuge in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Tajik, Uzbek, and Chinese (I'm assuming Uyghur, actually) militants are returning home and establishing themselves in their old Tajik bases.

THE CAUCASUS

  • The failure of all but one of the opposition parties to pass the 7% threshhold for seats in parliament led to allegations of vote fraud on Saakashvili's part. For its part, the Saakashvili government found the vote to be so riddled with problems in Ajaria that an entirely new election was planned (and cancelled).
  • Though there has been news of some countries pulling troops out of Iraq in the wake of flare-ups in fighting, Georgia sent 159 additional soldiers, members of the 16th Mountain Battalion and graduates of the US military's Train-and-Equip Program. They will serve in Baghdad, Tikrit, and Baiji.
  • The recently-dismissed (but refusing to go) general commanding the 25th Armored-Mechanized Brigade in Batumi has officially mutinied, proclaiming that Batumi, not Tbilisi, gives him orders.
  • Armenia's opposition groups launched a permanent protest in Yerevan, demanding the resignation of President Robert Kocharian and giving rise to the hope that Georgia's "Rose Revolution" would blossom in Armenia.
  • Tbilisi's tough talk towards Ajaria may be prompting a shift in the way that Russia deals with Georgia.
  • Former Soviet Foreign Minister and President of Georgia Eduard Shevardnadze has been offered a new job: advisor to Kofi Annan. He has accepted.

TURKESTAN

  • Though not a paradise by an stretch of the imagination, the fact that former fundamentalist warlords have traded fatigues for suits is definitely an achievement for Tajikistan.
  • Kyrgyz merchants are protesting Chinese traders, primarily ethnic Uyghurs, selling in markets. Why? They sell at lower prices and pay their taxes.
  • When is a divorce and custody battle a major international issue? Drag a bunch of US Congressmen into a New Jersey case involving Gulnora Karimova, daugher of Uzbek President Islam Karimov, and you have yourself an enormous problem and a script for a very engaging soap opera.
  • Uzbekistan has denied the registration of George Soros's Open Society Institute in Tashkent. Whether you love or hate Soros, OSI Uzbekistan was doing great work. (In the interest of full disclosure, I briefly worked with OSI Uzbekistan.)
  • As if having a certifiably insane leader is not bad enough, Turkmenistan is flat broke. The government owes over $250 million in unpaid wages, making people wonder where the country's export earnings are going.
  • The previous item really makes one wonder where Turkmenistan hopes to come up with the money to finance grandiose water projects such as the creation of a 2,000 square km lake in the middle of the desert and an artificial river in the capital.

AFGHANISTAN

  • Sgt. Hook, blogging from Afghan mountaintops, reports in with the news that the transformation of his tent city into a hut city is a boon to the local economy.
  • With 5,000 peacekeepers providing intense security, representatives from Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, India, and Central Asian states are meeting in Kabul to help reintegrate Afghanistan in the economic life of the region.
  • US officials note that this year's spring offensive by Taliban and al Qaeda fighters is the weakest yet and that enemy losses are very high while Coalition troops are escaping relatively unscathed.
  • Hamid Karzai is calling for foreign troops to stay in Afghanistan for at least ten years.
  • For the first time in Afghanistan's history, citizens will face an income tax. The overhaul the tax system will bring it closer to Western systems and decrease reliance on collecting customs duties. Interestingly, the only people who will pay the income tax are those making more than $200 per month. You have one guess what group of people in Afghanistan make that much...

LIGHTER FARE

  • Coolio made an appearance in Baku. Yes, he of "Gangsta's Paradise" fame appropriately played a concert in Baku.

4 TrackBacks

Tracked: April 20, 2004 4:24 PM
Central Asia from The Daily Slander
Excerpt: By the way, go read the latest Central Asia news roundup at the Winds of Change....
Tracked: April 20, 2004 5:04 PM
Global News Roudup from The Agonist
Excerpt: Global News Roundup Nathan has the best Central Asia summary up at Winds Of Change. 'Unprecedented Hatred' for Americans in Arab World, Mubarak Says Former Boeing Executive Pleads Guilty to Conspiracy Afghan President Announces Shakeup, Reduction in Si...
Tracked: April 21, 2004 12:25 AM
Central Asia News from SiberianLight
Excerpt: Just a pointer to Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary which is up on Winds of Change right now. If you ever need a fortnightly roundup of what's going on around Russia's southern periphery, this is the place to look. And,
Tracked: April 22, 2004 7:52 PM
Central Asia Briefing from The Marmot's (Final) Hole
Excerpt: Make sure to check out Nathan's Central Asia Briefing over at Winds of Change -- it's outstanding.

5 Comments

Interesting article on Uzbek women as suicide bombers.

Usual incredible summary report. Thanks.

Thank you for your efforts in keeping the internet community informed.

In future commentaries, please provide your thoughts on the drug trade in Afghanistan and why the governing authorities do not give the farmers the option of producing legal, albeit less profitable, crops or losing their fields (through confiscation or chemical applications) altogether.

Well, I totally forgot about a story on saffron that was this month. Most articles on opium poppies follow a few standard formulas.

The government at least talks the talk that it wants to eradicate the growth of poppies, but at US$300 per kilo, it's awfully tempting to give in. Saffron would bring in US$200 per kilo, not as much, but legal. Many farmers express concern about contributing to the drug trade, but they gotta make a living.

The other thing to consider, oddly enough, is the Aral Sea. It's gone, it's not coming back. Imagine though what the sudden addition of 10 million people drawing irrigation off of the Amu Daryo, the river on the Uzbek, Afghan, Tajik, and Turkmen borders, would do. I wouldn't be surprised if the river ran dry before Bukhara even. Everything to the west of Samarkand would become even more desolate.

Wheat, cotton, and rice are not at all an option for Afghanistan, and opium's no good either. It's a toughy.

Where did the Aral Sea go? I can surmise, but I would probably be wrong. Thanks.

Just to be all technical about it, the Aral still has some water in it. However, it's two seas now. Depending on who you ask, we have about ten to thirty years before it becomes no seas at all. I could be totally wrong, but if I recall correctly, the only chance of saving any of it is to try to concentrate on the Kazak portion of it.

All that water has gone to irrigate two of the stupidest crops one could grow in an arid region: rice and cotton. At least with cotton there's some economic return. Rice gives you next to none. The irrigation techniques are atrocious. Canals are unlined and open to the sun. Much of the water seeps into the ground or is evaporated.

Leave a comment

Here are some quick tips for adding simple Textile formatting to your comments, though you can also use proper HTML tags:

*This* puts text in bold.

_This_ puts text in italics.

bq. This "bq." at the beginning of a paragraph, flush with the left hand side and with a space after it, is the code to indent one paragraph of text as a block quote.

To add a live URL, "Text to display":http://windsofchange.net/ (no spaces between) will show up as Text to display. Always use this for links - otherwise you will screw up the columns on our main blog page.




Recent Comments
  • TM Lutas: Jobs' formula was simple enough. Passionately care about your users, read more
  • sabinesgreenp.myopenid.com: Just seeing the green community in action makes me confident read more
  • Glen Wishard: Jobs was on the losing end of competition many times, read more
  • Chris M: Thanks for the great post, Joe ... linked it on read more
  • Joe Katzman: Collect them all! Though the French would be upset about read more
  • Glen Wishard: Now all the Saudis need is a division's worth of read more
  • mark buehner: Its one thing to accept the Iranians as an ally read more
  • J Aguilar: Saudis were around here (Spain) a year ago trying the read more
  • Fred: Good point, brutality didn't work terribly well for the Russians read more
  • mark buehner: Certainly plausible but there are plenty of examples of that read more
  • Fred: They have no need to project power but have the read more
  • mark buehner: Good stuff here. The only caveat is that a nuclear read more
  • Ian C.: OK... Here's the problem. Perceived relevance. When it was 'Weapons read more
  • Marcus Vitruvius: Chris, If there were some way to do all these read more
  • Chris M: Marcus Vitruvius, I'm surprised by your comments. You're quite right, read more
The Winds Crew
Town Founder: Left-Hand Man: Other Winds Marshals
  • 'AMac', aka. Marshal Festus (AMac@...)
  • Robin "Straight Shooter" Burk
  • 'Cicero', aka. The Quiet Man (cicero@...)
  • David Blue (david.blue@...)
  • 'Lewy14', aka. Marshal Leroy (lewy14@...)
  • 'Nortius Maximus', aka. Big Tuna (nortius.maximus@...)
Other Regulars Semi-Active: Posting Affiliates Emeritus:
Winds Blogroll
Author Archives
Categories
Powered by Movable Type 4.23-en