Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.
TOP TOPIC
- For the second time in less than a year, Georgia approached the brink of civil war only to step back. The results and players were nearly the same, but this time, it was the leader of Ajaria, a semi-independent region on the Black Sea, who fled.
Other Topics Include: More on Ajaria; Russo-Uzbek Love-in; US Trains Uzbek NCOs; Russian Border Guards to Leave Tajikistan; Afghanistan's Disarmament Plan Hits Snags; Turkmen Education System in Freefall; The Makings of a To'y; and, Disabled Athletes in Afghanistan
TURKESTAN
- The US has been retraining Uzbek troops for some time now, focusing on creating a corps of confident, well-trained NCOs that will be able to implement orders and leave big-picture issues to senior officers. The result? A military force with much more NATO interoperability.
- It is important to remember the smaller stories, such as the one above, when thinking of the implications of increasing warmth in Russia-Uzbekistan relations. The depth of Uzbek ties to the United States and the inertia those ties create suggest that there will be no significant shifts in international relations in Central Asia.
- Russia's border guards will be leaving Tajikistan. Perhaps only coincidentally, a Russian soldier was arrested with 12kg of heroin smuggled across the Afghan border around the time of the announcement.
- EurasiaNet spells out exaclty how Turkmenistan's education system is in absolute freefall. To make matters worse, the Turkmen government has decided not to recognize foreign degrees earned since 1993, leading to the firing of thousands of skilled workers.
- As Tajikistan's president seeks to consolidate his power in next year's elections, the ICG warns that corruptions, regionalism, and fringe Islamist groups threaten the country's hard-won peace.
- In other ICG-related news, the organization's Central Asia Project Director says that US policy towards Uzbekistan result from "erroneous assumptions" by American policy-makers.
- Forum 18 says that Uzbekistan uses Sufism as propaganda in the United States (they make a convincing argument if you connect the dots) while still subjecting Uzbekistan's Sufis to official suspicion and control.
- The head of Kyrgyzstan's anti-corruption unit was assassinated on May 6th, most likely by the types of criminals he had been investigating in recent months.
- Immediately following a strong rebuke in the State Department's new human rights report, Uzbekistan has started a crackdown on opposition leaders.
- Kazak opposition parties hope to capitalize from the ruling of the "Kazakhgate" scandal to be handed down in US federal courts on June 2. An American businessman, James Giffen, is said to have paid massive bribes to unnamed officials in the Kazak government to secure oil contracts for Western oil companies.
- China is making major investments in a new oil pipeline to bring Kazak oil to China's Western border. Eventually, the new pipelines will allow Kazakstan to export about 140 million barrels per year to China.
CAUCASUS
- Make no bones about it, the peaceful resolution of the Ajaria conflict is a stunning success for democracy in the former Soviet Union, and a demonstration of the power of Russo-American partnership.
- Mitch of Blogfonte graciously gives credit where it is due, to George Soros' OSI-Georgia and to the Bush Administration. The role of Russia and Igor The Angel of Death Ivanov also deserve recognition.
- With Abashidze's fall from power, Georgia moves one step closer to controlling all of its territory. Still not under Tbilisi's control are Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which are independent but not recognized as sovereign states. Abkhazia appears to be the next target, and President Saakashvili will reveal Tbilisi's plans for Abkhazia on May 26.
- For summaries of the events in Ajaria, see EurasiaNet or my Caucasus Archive (lots of pictures...).
- Chechens who live in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge are worried about Russo-Georgian rapprochement. The ability of Chechen rebels to operate unmolested in Pankisi have been a sore point in relations between Russia and Georgia.
- After a lull, protests in Armenia against the President recently resumed.
- The US is offering additional aid to Armenia in exchange for political reforms.
AFGHANISTAN
- A faction of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-e Islami has declared that it wants peace and a role in Hamid Karzai's government.
- Afghanistan's disarmament plan is not going well. Some footsoldiers are turning in weapons, but warlords see little benefit in participating. Ismail Khan, the "Emir of Herat," is a case in point.
- In fallout from the Abu Ghraib abuse scandal, the US has ordered a probe of prisoner abuse in Afghanistan. Arash points out that there are few prisoners in Afghanistan and that, in his opinion, if torturing Khalid Sheikh Mohammad can save the life of one Afghan donkey, it's a fair trade.
- Bulgaria will add troops to its Afghanistan deployment amid NATO calls for more troops.
- In the continuing battles along the Afghan-Pakistan border, Pakistan has announced that it is seeking a female terrorist leader training Pakistani women as suicide bombers as revenge for her husband's death (he was an Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan member) at the hands of the Pakistani military.
- By year's end, the Afghan Army will number between 16,000 and 23,000, making it the largest force in the country and increasing its chances of effectively standing up to militias.
- Sgt. Hook reports that rocks, and not the Taleban, are the danger he's facing around the base.
FINALLY
- From Dee, a Peace Corps Volunteer currently serving in Uzbekistan, we have: The Makings of a To'y (wedding), Parts One, Two, and Three.
- And, to end with an upbeat story, IWPR has the story of new opportunities for disabled athletes across Afghanistan.
The next installment of the Central Asia Summary will be in one month. In the meantime, regular updates on Central Asia and the Caucasus can be found at The Argus.








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