Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans Summary": 2003-10-24

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus.

TOP TOPIC

• Azerbaijan has a new President, the son of the old one. In an election likely full of massive fraud, Ilham Aliyev has been declared the winner with approximately 3/4 of all votes.

• Baku has been rocked by unrest amidst protests by opposition parties, including the Musavat Party of self-proclaimed winner Isa Gambar. Exit polls by the Turan Information Agency indicate that Gambar received a plurality of the votes. Two opposition leaders and hundreds of protesters have been arrested in a police crack-down, while 73 journalists were attacked during and immediately after the election.

• Meanwhile, the OSCE is "concerned," while Russia and France are reportedly pleased with the outcome. The U.S. reaction is mixed, recognizing the results of the election while independent monitors sent by the Bush administration heap scorn on its conduct.

Other Topics Today Include: Georgia's Parliamentary Elections; Russian Business Leader Seeks Empire; Is Kazakstan Moving Towards Dynasty?; Positive Political and Economic Developments in Uzbekistan; The Ferghana Valley and Islamic Extremism; Afghanistan's New Constitution; The US Military Footprint in Central Asia; The Taliban Pours Into Afghanistan; Russia Moves to Join the Islamic World; and, a Peace Corps Volunteer Fights a Small Battle Against Uzbek Agricultural Policy.

Politics and Economics

• As leadership in the Caucasus moves from Brezhnev-era leaders to those who cut their teeth during the leadership of luminaries such as Andropov and Gorbachev, the ways that Azerbaijan and neighboring Georgia handle their elections have major regional consequences.

• The West is putting the screws to Georgia ahead of its November parliamentary elections. Citing corruption concerns, the Council of Europe has warned it might blacklist Georgia for its corruption and lack of democratic reforms. Meanwhile the United States has cut development aid to Georgia. The cut, much of which comes from planned aid to the energy sector, is likely punishment for Georgia ceding control of half its energy infrastructure to the Russian electricity giant RAO Unified Energy Systems. Both Europe and the US say that the elections will be a major test for Georgia.

• In neighboring Armenia, RAO has signed a new protocol with the government giving it control of 80% of Armenia's generating capacity. RAO chief Anatoly Chubais, a member of the liberal SPS party, said Russia's goal over the next 30-50 years should be to become a liberal empire.

• Dynasty seems to be all the rage in the Turkic lands of Central Asia. Some analysts believe that recent moves by Dariga Nazarbaeva, the elder daughter of Kazak president Nursultan Nazarbaev, indicate she is being groomed for leadership.

• Uzbekistan's opposition Erk (Freedom) Party held its first party congress on Uzbek soil in a decade on October 22. Throughout 2003, Uzbekistan has allowed public meetings of the Birlik (Unity) movement and protests by workers and merchants in Tashkent and Ferghana. Both Erk and Birlik aspire to compete in elections at all levels, but still face harassment and uncertain legal status. That both parties have held public meetings is a positive sign, as limited as its meaning may be. For a pessimistic view of the future of opposition in Uzbekistan, see IWPR's coverage. Also, you can find the address (which may or may not have been read) of Erk's exiled leader, Muhammad Solih, at Muslim Uzbekistan.

• In other moderately good news from Uzbekistan, the Uzbek som is now convertible, kind of. Uzbekistan has budged on IMF insistence that the country lift restrictions on the som. Grand announcements promised full convertibility and the elimination black market trading, but the reality is far different. Current account restrictions have been lifted, allowing importers and exporters to freely trade back and forth between dollars, euros, and soms.

• While a step in the right direction, for every step forward, Uzbekistan seems to take two back. Read why not to invest in Uzbekistan, the story of Paul Jahn, and how a strange decree on bazaars will drive up prices.

• Afghanistan's Loya Jirga will meet December 10 to debate, revise, and adopt a new constitution. Final touches are still being added before a draft is made public. Assuming it is left unaltered, the country will be called the "Islamic Republic of Afghanistan," and the document seeks to harmonize democracy and Islamic principles. Afghan Voice posts excerpts of past constitutions to compare to the new one, and promises to keep us abreast of developments.

Regional Security

• The Ferghana Valley in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan is recognized as Central Asia's heart of Islamic fundamentalism. There a number of reasons for this area being a breeding ground for extremism, and this story covers them all. For some, a lack of economic opportunity is the root of extremism; others are drawn to it out of a lack of opportunities to express politlcal views legally; while others seek to fill a spiritual and informational void in their lives. Unfortunatley, in Ferghana, all these forces are at work.

• Benjamin T. Brake of the Council on Foreign Relations argues the US should reasses its basing strategy in Central Asia. The current strategy of possibly maintaining permanent bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan as "lily pads" for rapid deployment to Central Asian hotspots has not been reconsidered in light of August's joint military exercises of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Uzbekistan did not participate, perhaps in a nod to the US). All the members of the SCO have a strong commitment to fighting terrorism while China and Russia view the US as a strategic competitor in the region.

• Brake argues that a continued US presence decreases chances for regional cooperation and encourages Russia and China to attempt to foil US plans the region. The unintended consequence of this competition is an "arc of instability" that creates opportunities for terrorist groups.

• As winter approaches, the Taliban is reportedly sending 2,500 troops into Afghanistan from Pakistan's Baluchistan province. In response, US and Afghan forces have launched large operations in southern Afghanistan, capturing a handful of fighters and a senior commander, Mullah Janan. Unfortunately, Mullah Janan is a common name, and the captured one may turn out to be unimportant.

• Pakistan is responding to US and Afghan criticism of cross border incursions by Taliban and Al Qaeda forces by erecting new fences, towers, and checkpoints on its western borders. Pakistani officials don't say how long the fence will ultimately be, but acknowledge that they are not doing a good job of keeping their borders secure.

• The increasing presence of Taliban in Afghanistan only makes life more difficult for the aid workers pushing to get the country back on its feet.

• Tajikistan is in a war of words with Russia over the Russian border guards that patrol the Tajik-Afghan border. The Tajiks have been trying to renegotiate their contracts with Russia to avoid having to split costs for the troops. Both countries have strong shared interests in patrolling the porous border with Afghanistan. Tajikistan's military is not strong or well-trained enough to undertake the task on its own while Russia is able to attack the flow of drugs out of Afghanistan at a relatively easy to patrol, short border (when compared to its long Kazak borders).

And the rest

• Russia made a surprise appearance at the recent OIC meeting in Malaysia. Though Russia does not have official observer status, about 15% of its population is Muslim, much more than OIC member Guyana's 9% minority. The appearance may be aimed at convincing the Muslim world that Russia is sympathetic to Muslim causes.

• Fossil finds in Georgia make researchers reconsider human evolution.

• Impress your friends! Wow poetry fans! Three-Toed Sloth points out that Langston Hughes was the first American to be translated into Uzbek. Hughes visited Soviet Central Asia, and had a book of essays published in the USSR. A handful of "lost" poems that only exist in their Uzbek translations have been "found" in the last known copy of Hughes' A Negro Looks at Soviet Central Asia.

• In Uzbekistan, the successful Peace Corps Volunteer needs to have a Machiavellian streak to get the job done. Hilltopper displays his/hers and comments on the annual debate over sending students to pick cotton.

The next installment of The Argus' Central Asia briefing will appear November 19. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Eurasian events can be found at The Argus.