Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans Summary": 2003-11-19

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia's "-stans" courtesy of Nathan Hamm, whose creds include a stint in Uzbekistan as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer. Nathan's regular blog is The Argus.

TOP TOPIC

• Georgia held parliamentary elections on November 2nd. Hold on to your hats, the fallout has been a wild ride that is mercifully summarized here (PDF file). [More inside...]

• Arash of Afghan Voice comments on Afghanistan's opium boom and the important role that poppy cultivation played under the Taliban.

• Crisisweb reports that in Central Asia, where half the population is under 30, youth are being lost and that there is a long list of needs that must be addressed. Why? Young people are turning to violence, extremist politics and/or religion, and migration as a way out of societies that offer them little opportunity. If you want to see an example of this frustration, read this email from an Uzbek acquaintance of mine.

Other Topics Today Include: Russia's Quest for a Liberal Empire; India Marches North; Special focus: Afghanistan; A Landmark Agreement on the Caspian; World Bank Backs BTC Pipeline & Rebukes Uzbekistan; Karimov is not Hussein; and much more.

The Great Game: Politics & Regional Security

• Russian policymakers have recently started to float the idea of a liberal empire to reinvigorate Russia's foreign policy goals. Being advanced primarily by Russia's pro-business liberals (as defined in the Russian sense...), such an empire would be, depending on your point of view, modeled after, an homage to, or, competition for the liberal empire of the United States. US experts weigh in on one of Russia's "imperial moves," and this imperial behavior is also causing waves in Europe.

• As far as old Turkestan is concerned, Uzbekistan is most definitely not part of Russia's empire while Kyrgyzstan has snuggled a little closer.

• Russia's not alone in its imperial ambitions in the region. India too is seeking to make its presence known in Central Asia and has been extremely busy this month. Making its focus known, Indian officials have visited Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in recent weeks. To reduce the overland travel time between India and Central Asia, India is cooperating on new road and rail routes from Termez, Uzbekistan to Chahbahar Port in Iran. This plan will cut down the distance between India and Central Asia by about 1,500 km and will entirely bypass Pakistan.

• For more views on India in Central Asia, see Indian Express and China's People's Daily.

• Meanwhile, India has pledged anti-terror cooperation in the region and opened its only foreign military base in Tajikistan.

• Kyrgyzstan claims to have foiled a terrorist attack on the US airbase at the Manas Airport. However, there are serious doubts about whether or not Kyrgyzstan's claims about the attacks are true. Further, some speculate that Kyrgyzstan is trying to scare the US military out on Russia's behalf.

• Despite initial hesitancy on the part of Turkmenistan, a landmark treaty to protect the Caspian Sea from any and all dumping of waste has been signed by all five littoral states. The Caspian agreement is a rare case of cooperation among Central Asian states. All too often, Central Asian leaders fail to cooperate because of their tendency to view disputes as zero-sum games.

Special Focus: More on Georgia

• As in neighboring Azerbaijan, Georgia's recent elections were marked by irregularities and protest. Georgia's opposition pledged to overthrow President Shevardnadze and masked gunmen opened fire at an opposition rally on the same day. The opposition camped out in front of parliament and Shevardnadze pledged to negotiate with the opposition. No deal of course.

• To put pressure on the opposition, Shevardnadze has mobilized supporters (who seem thoroughly unenthusiastic) and has turned to Russia for its two cents and a warm hug.

• In latest news, the opposition plans a nationwide protest and Shevardnadze warns of impending civil war.

• Eurasianet feels that Shevardnadze will prevail, while Transitions Online asks if Shevardnadze will share Ceausescu's or Milosevic's fate.

Special Focus: Afghanistan

• Back in Afghanistan, Gurkhas are winning hearts and minds while the British led provincial reconstruction team is drawing criticism.

• The Afghan government's prestige got a boost this month after shake-ups in northern provinces that appear to have a good chance of success--leading to a stronger central government at the expense of warlords.

• Afghanistan's draft constitution has been released. If you are at all interested in regular updates on the developments surrounding the constitution, visit Afghan Voice. There is a lot that can be said about the constitution. Noah Feldman's op-ed on the constitution and Islamic democracy is fascinating. There is a great deal of debate on whether the draft's text with its ambiguity and heavily Islamic tones will translate into a healthy society in Afghanistan.

• Asia Times Online reports that the Taliban is poised to make major gains. Following this probably unrealistic assessment, Afghanistan's government claimed that al Qaeda is trying to draw US forces away from Iraq by opening a new front in Afghanistan.

• Reconstruction and restoration of ancient monuments is always a touchy issue, so the possibly rebuilding of Afghanistan's Bamiyan Buddhas is fraught with controversy. Computer models have been completed opening the door to reconstructing the Buddhas. The creators of the model favor reconstruction while UNESCO wants to leave the empty niches as a "memorial to destruction."

Economics

• The World Bank has decided to invest in the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline against the protests of NGOs.

• The World Bank has rebuked Uzbekistan for its lack of economic reforms and cooperation, arguing that this behavior is holding back the entire region.

• Uzbekistan's economic policies are also causing a number of problems at home. The dire economic situation is causing Uzbeks to seek work in Kazakhstan, where they face slave-like conditions. Further, the high demand for cotton outside of Uzbekistan is driving farmers to "steal" their own crops and smuggle it out of the country. The government, catching wind of this practice, has cracked down on smuggling. Partially in response to this crackdown, the US has criticized Uzbekistan on its human rights record.

Human Rights

• Of late, it has been all the rage to equate Uzbekistan's human rights record with that of Baathist Iraq as a way of criticizing Bush for hypocrisy. Having lived in Uzbekistan, I decided to throw in my two cents.

• While the Bush administration has kept quiet on Uzbekistan's rights abuses, as recently as this week, it is not altogether silent. High-ranking State Department officials called for the release of Ruslan Sharipov and pledged to bring more pressure to bear on Uzbekistan. IWPR reports that Uzbek authorities denied requests for Sharipov's release but that international attention and pressure has led to improved conditions.

• An overview of media censorship in Central Asia is fairly depressing. It's not all bad though. An independent printing house sponsored by Freedom House and the US Government recently opened for business. The new press will allow authors to print outside of the reach of Kyrgyz censors.

• If youth in general are being lost in Central Asia, girls face additional obstacles including discrimination in education. With even fewer opportunities than their male classmates, the number of women entering into polygamous marriages in Uzbekistan in search of economic security is on the rise.

• Azerbaijan's new leader, President Ilham Aliyev, is celebrating his assumption of power with a crackdown on the press. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's political opposition is very disillusioned.

Et Ceterastan

• Asia Times Online has been running a series called "Silk Road Roving." Part 1 covers Eastern Turkestan (call it Xinjiang if you like) and the life of the Uighurs under Chinese rule. Part 2 and Part 3 cover Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan is covered in Part 4, and more is sure to come. All 4 articles present a good mix of history and description of the current situation in Central Asia.

• Kazakhstan new dam plans look like the nail in the coffin of the Aral Sea.

The next installment of The Argus' Central Asia briefing will appear December 17. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Eurasian events can be found at The Argus.

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