Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans Summary": 2004-02-24

by Nathan Hamm at February 24, 2004 5:48 AM

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus.

TOP TOPIC

  • Georgia's President Saakashvili sent in Special Forces to root out rebels/bandits on the Abkhaz border, and the Abkhaz leadership seems to be happy about it. But, were Russian peacekeepers the real target of Georgia's anti-guerilla operations around the Abkhaz conflict zone? Much like in Tajikistan, Russian peacekeepers appear to be letting bandits move across borders in which they should be contained and not protecting ethnic Georgians who have returned to the area. Georgia may be trying to drive them out to take advantage of the turmoil in Abkhazia... The breakaway region has refused to participate in direct talks with Georgia.
  • The IFPA says that the US should re-conceptualize its security relationships (the full report can be found here) in Central Asia. The crux of the argument is that the US should move towards a long-term vision for its military presence in the region rather than sticking with the ad-hoc arrangements made post-9/11. A quick glance shows this report well worth reading.

Other Topics Today Include: Khan Wilhelm; A Bad Month for Jihadists in Turkestan; The Chicken Sandwich Transforms Kyrgyzstan; Russia Revives Soviet Ob-Redirection Plans; The Uzbek Model of Economic Reform; Afghan Militia Disarmament A Success?; Uighurs Under Siege Across Central Asia; and, Much More.

Great Game

  • As the United States seeks to encourage and consolidate democratic change across Central Asia, one of its most valuable resources is the soldier-diplomat. Colonel Thomas Wilhelm, the former US defense attache to Mongolia is a superb example of the intelligent soldiers forming and executing US policy across the globe.
  • Jane's Islamic Affairs Analyst says a few interesting things about how shared security concerns bind SCO members (Russia, Old Turkestan, and China) and there's not a thing the US can do about it. However, Sino-Russian dominance can be mitigated with debt reduction and access to Western financial institutions for Central Asian states.
  • Members of Kazakstan's peacekeeping batallion (KAZBAT) are serving in Iraq under Polish command, perhaps as part of plans to make KAZBAT interoperable with NATO.
  • Kazakstan's "multi-vectored" foreign policy shows signs of tilting towards Russia, which shouldn't be too much of a surprise.
  • Because India's becoming a regional power and looking to project its influence into Central Asia, it's probably important to note that they are about to get the AWACS system from Israel. What makes this story even better is that the system will be mounted on an IL-76 platform.

Afghanistan

  • The plan to disarm Afghan militias is reportedly much shorter on results than it is on promises. IWPR, however, has an entirely different view of the disarmament program, reporting that many of those participating are happy to finally be rid of their weapons and looking forward to job training programs. The UN also disagrees with Eurasianet's view on the disarmament program too, saying the program is a success.
  • Following an attack on the helicopter of a US construction company, US forces and Afghan police stormed Thaloqan, a village known for its support of the Taliban and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, looking for the gunman who brought down the helicopter. The search resulted in the arrest of 30 suspected Taliban and the seizure of weapons.
  • The Daily Times (PK) is reporting that the US will rebuild 810 miles of roads in Afghanistan. While already completed highway improvements in Afghanistan are much appreciated, highways are proving to be dangerous for travelers. To boost the power of the central government on highways, Pakistan is helping out by setting up an Afghan highway patrol.
  • The US is considering forming an Afghan National Guard made up of militia members to keep the peace until an army can be trained.
  • If your an Afghan teen, Guantanamo is a blast according to this great WaPo story about Ismail Agha, who spent over a year in US custody. Interestingly enough, this story on the same boy has different details.
  • The Taliban is using violence to intimidate potential voters in hopes of delaying or preventing the planned summer presidential elections. Leaflets have been confiscated warning people that their lives are in danger if they register to vote. Nonetheless, the Afghan government still plans to keep elections on schedule.
  • A number of radio and television stations are springing up in Northern Afghanistan.
  • When General Gromov crossed the Friendship Bridge 15 years ago, he was considered the last Soviet soldier to leave Afghanistan. A number of Soviets taken prisoner still haven't left though, and have in fact become well-integrated members of their captors' communities.

Turkestan

  • The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute has released a comprehensive and informative policy paper (PDF) on China's Uighur problem that is a superb starting point for understanding the politics and issues in East Turkestan.
  • When does a restaurant change society? When it's an American restaurant. Kyrgyzstan's American Pub is not only my favorite restaurant in Bishkek (and perhaps all of Central Asia), it's developing other businesses and introducing the concept of customer service to Central Asia.
  • Russia is considering redirecting 7% of the Ob River's flow (which has been increasing in recent years) to Central Asia, increasing water available to Kazakstan and Uzbekistan by 50%. This plan would obviously be of substantial benefit to Central Asia and make economic development in Northern Afghanistan (which is along the Amu Daryo) easier, but to some it seems like feeding an addiction. (hat tip: ZenPundit)
  • The Syr Darya is experiencing a unique problem: too much water. In Kazakstan, thousands have been evacuated as officials have had no choice but to release water from reservoirs dangerously close to capacity. Water management is much more difficult in the post-Soviet period as controlling flow and use is now an international issue involving quite a bit of politics.
  • As the above stories illustrate, water management is a complex issue in Central Asia, and a major concern for development workers is to improve inefficient irrigation and drainage systems. So, it's great that the World Bank gave $60mln to Uzbekistan to improve its irrigation systems.
  • Is Uzbekistan's gradual approach to economic reform working? This EBRD assessment seems to say so, seeing slow improvement. Karimov says the economy grew 4.4% in 2003. This article on Uzbekistan's economy says that things are getting better for Uzbekistan's economy as well and that the most significant problems are a stark urban/rural income divide and massive inequalities in consumption and income.
  • Kyrgyzstan is debating raising the status of the Kyrgyz language, making Russians feel unwelcome. It'll be too bad if they flee, the Russians in Kyrgyzstan are great people, and from my anecdotal observations, the proprietors of some of the most successful and innovative small businesses in the country.
  • Compared to its neighbors, Kyrgyzstan has few problems with small arms--low ownership rates, low gun crime rates, and very little arms smuggling. The entire Kyrgyzstan small arms survey can be read here (PDF).

Caucasus

  • With Mary Neal's return to the US, Living With Caucasians has a new author, Elizabeth. Check her out for an entertaining take on life in Georgia.
  • President Saakashvili's honeymoon may be over as people are up in arms (maybe not the best choice of words for Georgia--not literally in this case) over constitutional changes that created a cabinet, prime minister, and has transferred some legislative powers to the President. Saakashvili may have a good reason for doing this, but, it sure doesn't look good.
  • President Saakashvili visited Russia this month, and the relations between Georgia and Russia look to be headed in the right direction. Saakashvili supports Russia's entry into the WTO, calling it good for Georgia. Georgia has also agreed to step up joint patrols with Russian troops along the Chechen border, and the two countries have agreed to discuss Abkhazia.
  • Meanwhile, Abkhazia's opposition groups, jealous of Georgia's young and dynamic leadership, have decided to focus on winning regional elections this weekend in their quest to oust President Vladislav Ardzinba.
  • Congressman Frank Pallone (D, NJ) is fighting to maintain parity in military aid to Azerbaijan and Armenia.
  • At 122, Pasikhat Dzhukalayeva may be the oldest woman in the world. This Chechen woman has lived through two world wars, the Russian Revolution, deportation to Kazakstan, and a civil war.

Human Rights

  • The arrest and conviction of a 63 year old woman, Fatima Mukhadirova, for membership in Hizb ut-Tahrir highlights the conundrums in the war on Islamic extremism. This woman is also the mother of a man tortured (boiled) to death who criticized the government and contacted foreign governments to investigate the case.
  • In Kazakstan, a proposed new law would give the government expanded wiretapping powers, making legitimate their practice of snooping on the opposition.

Fashionistan

  • Fashion designers are looking to Central Asia for inspiration. If I start to see people wearing the clothes I've avoided wearing in public for the last two years, I don't know how I'll feel.

All rights reserved. This article can be found on the Internet at:

http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/nathans_central_asia_stans_summary_20040224.php

Persons wishing to contact the author of this article for reprints etc. should put a request in the Comments section, or send an email to "joe", over here @windsofchange.net.