In my Normblog interview, I was asked about threats to the future peace and stability of the world. Islamofascism was #1, of course, but I also spent a bit of time explaining my worries about one possible future for China: a future of state capitalism under dictatorial control, a strong need for external resources to fuel that economy, carefully fostered xenophobia, a legacy of belief in the racial superiority of Chinese peoples, a major demographic problem in an excess of young males, and the meme that China is being cheated of its rightful place in the world. Germany's history in the 20th century teaches us what this combination portends.
Over at Between Hope and Fear, "The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Enemy" brings this possible future into sharp relief. As you read this essay by bestselling Chinese authors Zhang Xiaobo and Song Qiang, remember that there are other important trends at work in China. This isn't the whole story - but it is a clear warning. Some excerpts:
"many of us maintain that China should aspire to take its place as a world power instead of lamely emulating Western society as, for example, Japan has.... Critics of China Can Say No have noted that we make no secret of our appreciation of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the Russian nationalist.... No doubt our views on Taiwan will worry the Americans and some people in Taiwan because we encourage Chinese youth to prepare to solve the Taiwan issue by force.... At the end of the 20th century, China has once again become a world power in its own right. It need not play second fiddle to anyone."
Zhirnovsky, for those unfamiliar with him, is a bit more than a Russian nationalist. "Russian neo-fascist" is more like it. Now let's look at this excerpt from Geoffrey York in Canada's Globe and Mail (Oct 25, 2004):
"The nationalist mood seems to be gaining strength every year here. The schools are filled with "patriotic education" classes. Young people are organizing boycotts of Japanese products. Web petitions against the Japanese government are attracting millions of supporters. The Japanese are routinely denounced as "devils" and "little Japs" in chat rooms on the Chinese Internet, and one bar in southern China went so far as to post a "Japanese not welcome" sign.
A few years ago, optimists had hoped democracy would be nurtured by China's growing personal freedoms and its new Internet culture. But in reality, it is the nationalists, not the democrats, who have scored the biggest victories from the relaxed atmosphere.
....Thousands of petitioners and protesters in Beijing had been rounded up by police during the Communist Party meeting to avoid any embarrassment to the political elite. Yet even as arrests continued, the Chinese patriots were allowed to carry out their demonstration freely, under the noses of police officers who carefully supervised the event and even escorted one of the organizers inside the embassy's fence to deliver his petition.
It was further evidence of Beijing's semi-official approval of the new nationalists. The Communist leaders are seeking to harness Chinese nationalism as a unifying force, a sentiment that can be tapped by authorities to build loyalty, to quell opposition, and to fire the passions of young people who might otherwise drift into dissent.
"With the decline of Communist ideology as a source of legitimacy, the Communist Party depends even more on nationalism to legitimize its rule," wrote American scholar Peter Gries, author of the book China's New Nationalism, in a forthcoming issue of the China Quarterly."
....And this excerpt from Kate's blog The Roadkill Diaries, where she reposts a letter from Guangzhou (June 28, 2005):
"Re the nationalist side of China, I've witnessed the rise of this during the last 12 years and, yes, it has already surpassed the nationalism of what we read was evident in pre-war Germany, Italy, Japan etc.
The "us" and "them" mentality(i.e. we Chinese and you foreigners led by America) is staggering in China. And the expectation that China will directly challenge the US one day isn't debated over here, it's seen as an inevitable fact.
The govt here encourages a victim mentality complex and a sense of aggrieved history among the population (as in the recent anti-Japan riots) as well as teching all schoolchildren that The Middle Kingdom ruled the world for millenia before, several hundred years ago, the industrialised west stole it's technology like gunpowder etc. and usurped China's rightful place in the world. China incurred a HUGE loss of face and now China has started on the road to re-claiming it's rightful place in the world...."
Will China's future live Zhirnovsky's dark dreams, in an arc of conflict that stretches from Siberia through the Straits of Malacca, into India and the Middle East, and thence into Africa? Will it feature economic integration, the spread of religion, and relatively peaceful engagement with the rest of the world instead? Or something in between?
All we can do is consider the possible stories for China's future, note which elements seem to go together, and watch for developments that suggest trends in the direction of these stories. With our readers' support and help, we'll continue to do that here at Winds of Change.NET.
UPDATE: Winds offers a set of questions and scenarios designed to help our readers evaluate China's potential futures... and a more comprehensive post covering China's Stresses, Goals, Military Buildups... and Futures, which includes tips on how to do that kind of analysis.
This is very much like a scenario Ihave described: The US destroys the Muslim world because of some atrocity commited on US soil. This destuction includes the nuking of Beiging and Shanghaim for geopolitical reasons. The result is a US-Russian coalition not too disimilar to the Co-Dominium described in several novels by Jerry Pournelle.
Can you please define the term "Islamofascism?"
Fascism requires a heavy dose of nationalism, and nationalism does not appear to be something that the Islamicists are keen on promoting (indeed, their pan-Islamism appears to eschew such).
...a future of state capitalism...
I would have to argue that the trend is strongly away from such; and that this has been the case for some time now.
under dictatorial control, a strong need for external resources to fuel that economy, carefully fostered xenophobia, a legacy of belief in the racial superiority of Chinese peoples, a major demographic problem in an excess of young males, and the meme that China is being cheated of its rightful place in the world.
This is more tune with actual definition of fascism. However, none of the things you note of above is all that different from the China of the 16th century.
At the end of the 20th century, China has once again become a world power in its own right. It need not play second fiddle to anyone.
Well, yeah, and so what? Is it merely the fact that China will become a powerful competitor to the US that bothers you? Or that China will become a powerful military power in its own right?
I've always seen the Chinese situation, particularly with regard to their brutal repression of numerous religious groups, as being fairly analogous to the pre-Constantine Roman Empire. The words used by the higher-ups in Bejing talk about Falun Gong or Tibetan Buddhism or Christianity these days could just as easily have been put in Nero or Domitian or Diocletian's mouths (with respect to Christianity, some of it probably was).
What's going to happen eventually in my view is that sooner or later these religious groups are going to start gaining some kind of a following among the folks whose loyalty to the Party (which is more about power than Marx or Mao these days) is essential for the continued functioning of the current Chinese state. When that happens, I think that it's quite conceiveable that we might see some kind of hot or cold in-fighting among the Chinese elites for how their society gets up. Either the state is going to have to yield to these religious groups (and the creation of the puppet churches is already a tacit admission of this) or they're going to get overwhelmed by it, a la Rome. Now China has been through this kind situation twice in recent memory, during the Taiping and the Boxer Rebellions. Neither were too pleasant and that's certainly one possible future here.
For a completely alternate view, I would recommend reading Gordon Chang's The Coming Collapse of China.
Keep in mind that my post was one ray of light in the spectrum of Chinese reality. One thing the 21st century seems to hold is the high probability of sudden surprises occuring. I can see the evolving danger that China might become a highly militarized, economically competitive, dictatorial anti-American player in the Pacific. Their designs on the region could be very similar to imperial Japan's in the 1930s and 40s.
But I also believe that China is complex and vast, and the technology of our time creates surprises that await history's stage. For example, the Tienamen crackdown in 1989 was far from a unanimous decision by the Party. There is a famous book smuggled out of China called 'The Tienamen Papers'. The papers detail how hard-line and reformist Chinese leaders disagreed about how to handle the huge pro-democracy demonstrations. The documents show how Communist Party elders led by Deng imposed martial law, ousted reformist party chief Zhao Ziyang and replaced him with Jiang Zemin, now China's president.
There was a heated debate, one side advocating loosening Communist strictures, the other side reacting with the lance. We assume that there is political unity in a China with one party, but there are great tensions.
We tend to see China as a big block much in the way we saw the Soviet Union---when in fact it was composed of many Republics. It is very hard to predict what will happen with our relationship with China, which has very interdependent economic ties. Surprises await. It could be an invasion of Taiwan; or it could be the collapse of the Central Government.
TACITUS
I thought Simon's East Asia Overview had some good stories speculating on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The crux here is that there could be generational sea change in Taiwan favoring independence. China may be faced with the prospect of making good on its threats to solve the question by force sooner, rather than later.
I think the best source for China's future and its' relationship with America is the Chinese themselves. Have any of you read "Unrestricted Warfare"? If not, you should. You can download it from here
From Newsmax.com
As incredible as it may be to believe, three years before the Sept. 11 bombing of the World Trade Center a Chinese military manual titled Unrestricted Warfare touted such an attack – suggesting it would be difficult for the U.S. military to cope with.
Here is an excerpt from Unrestricted Warfare:
“Whether it be the intrusions of hackers, a major explosion at the World Trade Center, or a bombing attack by bin Laden, all of these greatly exceed the frequency bandwidths understood by the American military...”
Surprisingly, Osama bin Laden is mentioned frequently in this book.
Then we have this new tidbit. I am sure we can all remember ChinaGate which showed China's intention to influence our elections and our Congressional leadership. Did you also know that there was a candidate other than Bill Clinton who received illegal contributions? Can you guess who that could have been?
Secret FBI Documents Reveal Kerry Accepted Laundered Contributions
Senator Also May Have Set Up Meetings Between Chinese Firms, U.S. Officials
From Judicial Watch
Here are the links to the new FBI docs just released under the Freedom of Information Act.
Document1
Document 2
This is just more proof that this election is one of the most important election this country has ever faced.
SBD
"As you read this essay by bestselling Chinese authors Zhang Xiaobo and Song Qiang, remember that there are other important trends at work in China."
Sorry I missed this in your post as I did not see the title of the book. The 911 quote is rather insightful though.
SBD
"As you read this essay by bestselling Chinese authors Zhang Xiaobo and Song Qiang, remember that there are other important trends at work in China."
Sorry I missed this in your post as I did not see the title of the book.
SBD
>>a future of state capitalism under dictatorial control, a strong need for external resources to fuel that economy, carefully fostered xenophobia, a legacy of belief in the racial superiority of Chinese peoples,
Hmm.
China has to play nice and globalize or it dies.
It's that simple.
They need massive amounts of energy to fuel their economic miracle.
They can't secure these resources militarily, because they don't have the military.
So over the next two decades they're going to fully join the world community and everything will be fine.
When you've been the center of the world for a millennium or so, the past couple centuries have to hurt in Peking circles. We don't know whether China will become a fascist superpower, benign authoritarian friend, real democracy, basket case, or even splinter into several states. It sure as heck important to us which way China goes and we need to pay attention.
Brian J. Dunn
Joe: "a major demographic problem in an excess of young males" If we gould get accurate data out of China the population genetics equations can predict with accuracy just how much of a problem this will be-- but witness the origins of the SARs epidemic-- that is very difficult to do.
However, we have to assume the Chinese keep good data sets, and have already done the projections. I have to assume the government is changing the population make-up either deliberately, or in benign neglect because they see it as a global advantage. It is a good way to make armies.
>>They need massive amounts of energy to fuel their economic miracle.
These resources don't (and won't) exist.
>>They can't secure these resources militarily, because they don't have the military.
I'm becoming increasingly suscpicious that MidEast intervention is primarily Peak Oil related. Cheney & Co. aren't morons, they have to know Peak Oil is coming. US military occupation of the region means that when world oil demand really begins to outstrip supply, the Chinese can be cut out of the loop. Their lights go out, ours stay on. From a Realpolitik standpoint it's the only way to go.
Presumably the Chinese leadership aren't idiots either. They must know that they have 10, maybe 15 years to build a military strong enough to prevent the US from blockading them. The problem is that sheer manpower isn't very helpful, especially not when nukes are in play -- and when it comes to keeping the lights on, they definitely are.
TJ, I think it has more to do with Iraq becoming a second swing producer than with Peak Oil or whatever.
I actually don't think Cheney believes in Peak Oil, but he does believe we are entering a crunch period, and did not want to have a guy like Saddam manning the on/off switch of the global economy.
But I think you have a point about the relationship of the Iraq war to China, given the history of Wolfowitz's thinking on the relationship between oil and military power and the Pentagon's China obsession.
I think it's still too early to tell which way China will go, but a good sign will be just how effectively they manage to establish the rule of law -- and they have a long way to go in that. The increasingly rough handling of Hong Kong does not bode well for that.
What makes me most nervous, however, is how they might deal with the eventual cooling (or even crash) of their economy, coupled with a collapse of the banking system (think what happened to the 'little tigers' in SE Asia). The banks are already accumulating bad and improperly secured debts at an enormous rate (getting a loan is often more about your connections than whether the loan is a good idea or not), which will come back to haunt them eventually.
On the flip side, a vibrant middle class has already been established, and its growing in leaps and bounds -- a terrific moderating influence. As standards of living and education rise, a relatively peaceful and orderly transition to democracy is not impossible. Taiwan did it, and so did South Korea.
I think the surplus of males in China will coalesce on doomsday morning into one massive rice wang that phucks the Earth all to hell.