Winds of Change.NET: Nuclear Fallout

May 23, 2002

Nuclear Fallout

by Joe Katzman at May 23, 2002 4:14 AM

(N.B. See above for my in-depth analysis of the Kashmir situation, and why I don't believe it will come to this.)

What would the impact of a nuclear war in India / Pakistan -- call it 50-100 nuclear explosions in the 20-kiloton range -- be on the United States? Probably fairly minimal. Nobody there has thermonukes, do they? Or extra-dirty atomics? If I recall, you need an h-bomb for nasty tricks like cobalt-jacketing. Er, and there isn't, like, smallpox or plague in any of those warheads. Right?"

Short answer is: sleep easy. First, here's the data, and the diagrams, for 20 KT weapons.

For India and Pakistan, doesn't matter if they're dirty. Answer is still "almost nothing," and 20 KT is a small nuke - hence unlikely to be an H-bomb. Wind patterns etc. ensure that the fallout would either hit the mountains and settle, or go out to sea. Southeast Asian countries like Thailand may have cause for real concern, but pretty much zero for the USA in terms of direct health risks.

Note, too, that most of India's population is in the south and NW river valley. Still, 100 million or so dead is worth some diplomacy and effort to avert. I really, deeply doubt it will come to that. For our own peace of mind, though, we have to take the possibility seriously in our diplomacy.

"Er, and there isn't, like, smallpox or plague in any of those warheads. Right?"

Glenn, they could pour the whole Russian chemical and bioweapon stockpile into those babies. All it would create is a very efficient disposal method when the critical mass reaction incinerates them at roughly the temperature of the sun.

Of course, I'm sure you're really asking if either side might use chemical or biological weapons instead of nukes. No. The response to that could well be nuclear, so why bother with half-measures? I don't see these weapons being used by either country... and if Al-Qaeda had such weapons, they would have been used already.

Hope this helps you sleep, my friend. As you can see from the time stamp, that's not my strong point right now.

Without sleep,

Joe Katzman,
Winds of Change

UPDATE: Good follow up from the New Scientist, which found a study that estimates 2.9 million dead and 1.5 million injured if India and Pakistan used just 10% of their arsenals. This estimate represents immediate casualties only. Truthfully, 100 MM was a guess based on FAS documents plus studying atlases and population densities. But if we imagine a full exchange, account for diminishing returns, and throw in later effects as well... it's probably pretty close.

UPDATE #2: See my June 6, 2002 post for a picture of the fallout patterns from a much smaller exchange, and detailed information about India and Pakistan's nuclear arsenals.

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