A pair of interesting pieces at The Oil Drum, a site whose views lean strongly toward Peak Oil. One is a reproduced letter to The Guardian by Colin Campbell, one of the worlds preeminent depletion analysts, and co-author of the 1998 Scientific American article, "The End of Cheap Oil." He's not a crank - read his pedigree, and the background information he brings to his commentary. It is remarkable, and the letter offers a good short summary of his analysis.

Which brings us to the second, related topic. The Jevons Paradox (sometimes called the Jevons effect) is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase, rather than decrease, the rate of consumption of that resource. It's counter-intuitive, but sometimes true.

The second piece is an interesting "what if" look at oil demand in the OECD countries, and outside of it. "A New Geopolitical Jevons Paradox? A Look at Non-OECD Oil Demand" assumes slightly rising production, but wonders if a series of recessionary shocks that drive down oil demand in 1st and 2nd world countries might just result in substitution by demand from non-OECD countries.