A pair of interesting pieces at The Oil Drum, a site whose views lean strongly toward Peak Oil. One is a reproduced letter to The Guardian by Colin Campbell, one of the worlds preeminent depletion analysts, and co-author of the 1998 Scientific American article, "The End of Cheap Oil." He's not a crank - read his pedigree, and the background information he brings to his commentary. It is remarkable, and the letter offers a good short summary of his analysis.
Which brings us to the second, related topic. The Jevons Paradox (sometimes called the Jevons effect) is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase, rather than decrease, the rate of consumption of that resource. It's counter-intuitive, but sometimes true.
The second piece is an interesting "what if" look at oil demand in the OECD countries, and outside of it. "A New Geopolitical Jevons Paradox? A Look at Non-OECD Oil Demand" assumes slightly rising production, but wonders if a series of recessionary shocks that drive down oil demand in 1st and 2nd world countries might just result in substitution by demand from non-OECD countries.
This may sound like a stupid question, but what is OECD?
Oxford English Compulsive Disorder.
It's an affliction that affects some writers and many aristocrats.
Remember there are no stupid questions, just stupid answers.
Here's the OECD Wikipedia entry
Thanks, Foobarista. Achillea, just substitute the words "1st and 2nd World Economies" for "OECD".
OECD is the organisation where General Franco got his "second-best-in-class" mark during the 1960's. Japan was the first.
IMHO, the problem about arguing on oil reserves is that there is no objective data, further complicated by the fact that the issue has two sides: geological deposits and extraction technology.
And the increasing percentage in oil consumption by developing countries could be interpreted in many ways, one of them is that oil is being substitued in some applications in modern economies.