Big Four's leaders "divinely ordained," says Israeli PM
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on factors working in Israel's favor on the world scene:Indeed, said the prime minister, there was currently an almost divinely ordained constellation of key personalities on the international stage favorably disposed to Israel, creating comfortable conditions for negotiations that might never be replicated.Olmert was also indirectly quoted in the JPost's article that "Israel needs to internalize that even its supportive friends on the international stage conceive of the country's future on the basis of the 1967 borders and with Jerusalem divided.""It's a coincidence that is almost 'the hand of God,'" Olmert said, "that Bush is president of the United States, that Nicolas Sarkozy is the president of France, that Angela Merkel is the chancellor of Germany, that Gordon Brown is the prime minister of England and that the special envoy to the Middle East is Tony Blair."
The imperative, he said, was to make every effort for progress while this array of supportive characters remained in place.
"What possible combination," he asked, "could be more comfortable for the State of Israel?"
I think this is an accurate statement of international expectation, although opinion inside Israel is far from united on this point. There is a significant percentage of Israeli Jews who are wedded to the idea that the Jewish state must necessarily include all of historic Jerusalem. Thus, when then-PM Ehud Barak offered in 2000 to hand over three of Jerusalem's four historic quarters to the Palestinian Authority, there was a strong, adverse reaction domestically. Yasser Arafat refused, so the offer died.
Above, the Wailing Wall, part of the Western Wall of the ancient Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Photos by the author.
A view of the old city from near the valley of Gehenna, south of the city.
The four historic quarters of the old city are the Jewish quarter (obviously never offered to the PA), the Christian quarter, the Armenian quarter and the Muslim quarter. These generally, but not completely, are contained inside the walls of the old city, but the wall's track has been moved over the last two millennia.
Modern Jerusalem is much larger than the old city. Surrounding the old city are many boroughs, each with its own religious and ethnic flavor. The American colony is north of the old city, the German colony is southwest. There are, of course, many Jewish boroughs and to the east are the Muslim ones.
Remains of another section of the Western Wall of the Temple Mount; the large stones were thrown down there by Roman legions in 70 b.c.e. when they crushed a Jewish rebellion against Rome.
The original UN plan that created the state of Israel in 1948 also called for the creation of a new Arab nation along with it, and for Jerusalem to be an international city under no single country's sovereignty.
The Arab countries of the day entirely rejected the whole proposal, attacking the nascent country of Israel immediately. Several hundred thousand (perhaps 700K) Arabs living inside newborn Israel vacated the new country. Some left on their own. Most 
were told to leave for their own safety by the Arab countries, who promised that after Israel was crushed they could return. And many were forcibly expelled by the Israelis, mainly from areas of critical terrain or lines of communication inside the country. They and their descendants, the Palestinians, now live inside the Gaza strip along the Mediterranean Sea and the West Bank, so called relative to its position to the Jordan River.
The Muslim Dome of the Rock, atop the ancient Temple Mount of the Jews, looking from the east. Beyond are Jewish and Christian sections. The official PA position is that the Jewish temples never existed atop the Mount, but were far away - Yasser Arafat even once claimed the last Jewish Temple had been built in Yemen!
The leaders of Israel, America, Europe, the Arab countries and the Palestinian people have all agreed for many years that the Palestinians should have their own state. Alas, that is where agreement ends. Israel and the West envision a Palestinian state existing alongside Israel, whose character as a Jewish state would remain unchanged.
The Palestinian people and their leaders insist that they already have a country, robbed from them by the UN in 1948 and now illegally and unacceptably occupied by the Jews. They do not accept statehood alongside Israel. The map to the right was produced by the Palestinian Authority only last month and broadcast on Palestinian television (see here). It is nothing new. That all of Israel properly belongs to the Palestinians and not at all to the Jews has been staple teaching since, well, 1948. Maps used in Palestinian grade-school geography classes show the same thing.
Nonetheless, PM Olmert is optimistic that both the Israelis and the Pallys will accept the two-state solution.
He said he was convinced, too, that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas "has made the choice in his heart" between clinging to the "myth of the 'right of return'" and the opportunity to establish a Palestinian state where all Palestinians, refugees included, would live. "My impression is that he wants peace with Israel, and accepts Israel as Israel defines itself," Olmert said. "If you ask him to say that he sees Israel as a Jewish state, he will not say that. But if you ask me whether in his soul he accepts Israel, as Israel defines itself, I think he does. That is not insignificant. It is perhaps not enough, but it is not insignificant."The main question is, though, not what Abbas believes in his heart, but what is is able to bring about. Let us stipulate for the sake of argument that Abbas has completely embraced the two-state solution and has abandoned the notion that the Palestinians will ever reoccupy Israel. The problem is that there is no real reason to believe he can make it stick among the Pallys or even the rest of the PA government. Besides, Gaza is ruled by Hamas, which emphasizes its goal of Israel's destruction and which came to open combat against Abbas' PA forces last year over who would control Gaza.
It is no doubt part of a prime minister's job description to be optimistic, but the optimism PM Olmert expresses seems an overreach. Israel is fortunate to have the main Western countries in its corner, but the obstacles remaining are so severe that the status quo is highly unlikely to change for a long, long time, except, sadly, for the worse.
Generally decisive losers in wars have peace imposed on them, not negotiated (though not always). Israel has complete control of the situation. They can impose a solution, create a border and say goodday to the Palestinians at any time. But domestic politics in Israel make that problematic. If Israelis themselves cant decide where the border will be, what hope has any negotiation with the Arabs?
The loss of Sharon is one of those terrible shames in history. He appeared to have been on the cusp of being the Nixon to the peace processes China, and pulling out most of the settlements to establish a border somewhat in line with the Green Line. Physically seperating the Palestinians from Israel and then holding them accountable as an independent state is the only long-term solution. It wont stop Palestinians from firing rockets over the fence- but a counterbarrage of artillery might.
Hamas openly stated goals are the subjugation of Palestine, visa vie the West Bank, and then the destruction of Israel. Few have any doubt of Hamas’ ability to facilitate the former and its intent to the later.
Fundamentalists on both sides of the divide will stymie any chance at reconciliation between the parties, the Israelis and the rest of the world (less a few stalwart leaders). The Arab strategy is to take what they can while they can and tacitly negotiate the rest as it becomes available. The Israeli’s are forfeiting the advantage in a game in which possession is 90% of the law.
"Israel is fortunate to have the main Western countries in its corner,"
You're joking right? NOT EVEN ONE!
Rev- This statement is incomplete.
....and reap the rewards of the bouty of the dead Jews. The Zionists had built a verdant society between the wars in the mandate. They purchased land from the indigenous Arabs that those Arabs thought was waste land. They would put a fence around it, start a kibbutz, plant crops and make something where nothing had been. This drove the locals NUTS. They could not accept that a little actual work could have such results. Drive from Be'er Sheba on the road to Ashquelon and see the argricultural results.
I would hope that some kind of accomodation could be reached but as long as "they hate us more than they love their children" nothing will change. It is a matter of 'honor' to the supposed Palestinians.
Olmert is nuts which explain his behavior fighting Hiz-b-Allah in 2006. While he is saying to Israelis they need to make concessions public for all to hear, the other side is playing the same game as always. In the end (his side?) will make the concessions and the other side will get the cake and will go for the next round . What Israel won from leaving Gaza without any agreement? Rockets. The biggest one already reached more than 15km inside Israel.
Whether or not Abbas can deliver the Palestinian side of an agreement is one question, but another is this: If an agreement is produced, who is going to be the one that finishes off the Palestinian civil war to enforce it? Fatah seems to be almost a spent force - would they create or allow Hamas to create a casus belli to allow the IDF to clean out Gaza? That's probably the second deal breaker after Jerusalem, who bells Hamas?
Olmert (and others) speak as though the Palestinians (Hamas or the PA) really want a state and that they plan to live in it alongside Israel.
That's pretty funny, folks.
Alas, it isn't funny as in "ha ha."
Olmert has violated a key run of human behaviour, and of international relations. If your adversary can't be dictated to by outside parties willing to use their leverage, then the opinions of outside parties don't really matter. Only your adversary's mental state matters.
The very existence of the current talks in the face of a Hamas government shows clearly that none of the "friends" Olmert refers to have any intention of holding the Palestinians accountable for anything, ever.
Which makes leaving the Palestinians out of the equation an act of either high dishonesty, or high insanity.
The Israeli government is living in a dream world. They are bending over backwards to accomodate the big four and the Arabs.
The latest is a decision to ban overt praying at the Western(Wailing) Wall. Overt praying includes moving the lips (Not even speaking).
The minister for the interior says the reason is to avoid inciting violence.
The Israelis are their own worst enemies.
Poor God.
He always seems to get pulled into this never ending nonsense in the ME. I would imagine, at this point, he would like to wash his hands of the whole lot of them.
Olmert handing over part/all of Jerusalem is likely irrelevant. Iran and it's nukes present an existential threat to Israel.
Perhaps Olmert is willing to make any deal at all to free his hand to attack Iran?
One of the real hopes for the ME is Iraq -- as Arabs see a functioning, capitalistic, wealth creating Arab (& Kurd) country, they might decide that a "just war" isn't worth it.
And that really has to be the Palestinians' leaders' choice -- that unjust peace is better than just war (that won't be won).
Sometimes I wish Israel was more punitive, in a consistent Big bomb for every small rocket way, and constantly trying to kill anti-Israeli leaders. Every time a rocket comes in, a bigger rocket goes back, targeting a Hammas leader, for instance.
At other times I think Israel should retaliate by expropriating 100 Palestinian houses for each rocket, and either accepting the Palestinians as 'new Arab Israelis', or paying them off to leave -- but steadily increasing the size the Jewish controlled Jerusalem.
Because of the fear of Iran's nukes, at other times I think Israel should be ready for a "first strike", but it looks pretty tough.
An alternative might be asking for asylum in the USA for the what, 5 million Israeli Jews, and live by running away -- since preemptive self defense seems to be internationally unacceptable.
What is worth doing to stop Tel Aviv from becoming a mushroom cloud?