I mentioned on May 1 that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would be driven from office because of his government's mismanagement of last summer's Lebanon war, a prediction I first made on Aug. 11. In the August post I also predicted former PM Benjamin Netanyahu would re-assume the office, which in the months since then has seemed like a real long shot.
But maybe not any longer. Israeli reporter Shmuel Rosner, writing in Slate, asks what comes next for the embattled Olmert government and Israel's future in the wake of the Winograd report, which harshly criticized Olmert et. al. for their bungling on the war.Three possible outcomes can be imagined, since the demand—from both the public and from fellow politicians—that Olmert should resign is getting hard to ignore:Still not the most likely outcome, but one that can't be held as unlikely any more.1. Olmert is forced out, the ruling coalition dismantles, and a date for new elections—probably this fall—is set. In the meantime, an interim government, headed by another coalition member—perhaps the tireless Shimon Peres or Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni—is established.
2. Olmert is replaced by someone else from his coalition, without a date for new elections. No one believes such a coalition could survive for very long.
3. Olmert survives as the coalition partners eventually reach the conclusion that they will lose power if new elections are called.
New elections would give Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to become prime minister again, since he is leading in all polls. ...
Glad to see Bibi may come back. He has a set. Perhaps he can restore the IDF to it's former state of readiness. The truth is they had cut budgets so much they could not prosecute the invasion of Lebanon last summer. The IDF did not have the ability to supply the troops as they moved north of the border. Why do I know? We have IDF soldiers work for us out of our office in southern Israel.
BTW, Hezbullah is moving south already and testing their cover from the Fwench. They will attack as soon as they feel they are in position. Last summer just made them bolder. This time I hope the IDF pulls out ALL of the stops and rids the Levant of those roaches.
The Hobo
So, I've got a question:
Why should I care (about the PM of Israel)?
(Please don't take this personally Mr. Sensing.)
Can you sell me on the idea that this is really something I should care about, as an American? Sure, if I were Israeli I would care quite a bit, but I'm not.
Why you should care.
1. Israeli politics in response to Lebanon provide a mirror to American politics in response to Iraq.
2. Olmert weakness invites a general war in the ME against Israel.
3. Olmert will not strike against Iran's nuclear weapons. Bibi probably will. Iran's nukes menace us as well.
#2 from InJapan: "So, I've got a question:
Why should I care (about the PM of Israel)?"
That's a good question.
I'll give an answer I think is right, which will not be what Donald Sensing things is right.
Areas wracked by jihad (Islamic holy war) are of two types. Either the state or the region is all Islamic, or sufficiently Islamic that there is no way to arm local non-Muslim populations and give them a promising shot at defeating Jihad; or there are important non-Muslim populations with a real chance to hold their turf (or ideally take turf off Islamic forces) if we help them.
Afghanistan is as good as wholly Islamic: non-Muslims have no hope to do more than survive as individuals. Iraq is as good as wholly Islamic, because Islamic persecution is destroying local non-Muslim populations such as Christians, and we can't save them. So, we have no dog in these fights, and the best that we can hope for is wars along the lines of the Iran-Iraq war of blessed memory.
Nigeria and Israel are jihad zones of the second type, meaning there are important non-Muslim populations (Jews, Christians and Traditional African or Animists) trying to survive, and they have a real chance to make it. Their welfare is our concern. When they win, in the long run, the threat to us diminishes.
Therefore the people who are of importance to the fate of the disputed regions should be of some interest to us. Not necessarily great interest. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert seems as dull as he is inept. But some interest.
Of course, everybody is not going to be interested in all these people and places. Jews have a special reason to be interested in Israel, and so do people who think that the promise that those who bless Israel will be blessed. (That would mostly be Christians.) Other people are not interested in Israel but are interested in Europe, or India, or Russia, or Africa or Thailand.
If Israel isn't one of the disputed lands you find interesting, I can't see why you should read about Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. I don't feel obliged to follow every bit of news about politicians in Kashmir.
Hi
Please consider writing news pieces or an op-ed for Jewrusalem: Israeli Uncensored News. We strive to present different views and opinions while rejecting political correctness. Ideally, we try to make the news "smart and funny." Thus, your input is very welcome.
Best,
Alex
www.jewrusalem.net/en
Trackbacked by The Thunder Run - Web Reconnaissance for 05/04/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.
At the time of the invasion it was heralded by the right as a huge win. It turned out to be a disaster in all ways for Israel.
I don't think Bibi's prospects are that good, no matter what happens to Olmert.
Donald,
In Israel, always bet on corruption.
See below:
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Olmert Survives No-Confidence Votes on Failures in Lebanon War
By Jonathan Ferziger
May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert survived three no-confidence motions brought by parliamentary opponents after a government commission's report blaming Olmert for being unprepared for last year's war in Lebanon.
The motions failed to dislodge Olmert, whose governing coalition controls 78 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament. Olmert's Kadima Party and its four allied parties easily defeated the first bill 60 to 28 with nine abstentions and the other two by similar margins.
``The entire nation is saying something simple: You've failed. Take responsibility. Go home,'' Benjamin Netanyahu, the opposition leader and Likud Party chairman, said in a speech televised from the Knesset chamber in Jerusalem.
Olmert has refused to resign, saying he needs to stay in office to fix mistakes highlighted in the report. The commission, led by Eliahu Winograd, a retired judge, said Olmert bears ``supreme responsibility'' for military and political failures in fighting the Shiite Muslim Hezbollah militia.
The no-confidence motions were submitted by the Likud, Meretz and United Torah Judaism parties.
``You're going to make the repairs?'' Netanyahu said. ``You're not the solution. You're the problem. The true way to fix an earthquake like this is to go to elections.''
The war in Lebanon erupted July 12 after Hezbollah fighters killed three Israeli soldiers and kidnapped two others in a cross-border ambush. Olmert said five days later in a speech to the Knesset that the army would retrieve the captive soldiers and demolish Hezbollah's military capabilities, which the panel described as unrealistic goals.
The conflict left 1,100 Lebanese dead, mostly civilians killed in Israeli air raids, and 163 Israelis, including 43 civilians and 120 soldiers. Hezbollah, which received financial support and weapons from Iran, fired more than 4,000 rockets into Israel before a United Nations-brokered cease-fire was declared Aug. 14.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Ferziger in Jerusalem at jferziger@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: May 7, 2007 12:55 EDT