What led Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to reject the ceasefire deal being brokered by France, Lebanon and the United States? Unquestionably, he wanted a ceasefire resolution of some kind and until today seemed willing even to embrace one with terms so unfavorable to Israel as was being proposed for a vote in New York this afternoon.
Before the PM Olmert's rejection of the deal's terms this morning, Haaretz editorialized what acceptance of the deal would have meant for him: Olmert cannot remain in the prime minister's office.
By Ari ShavitMy prediction: Olmert will lose his office, anyway. And, as I grow weary of saying, Israel has not exhibited evidence of a strategic plan for this war at all.
Ehud Olmert may decide to accept the French proposal for a cease-fire and unconditional surrender to Hezbollah. That is his privilege. Olmert is a prime minister whom journalists invented, journalists protected, and whose rule journalists preserved. Now the journalists are saying run away. That's legitimate. Unwise, but legitimate.However, one thing should be clear: If Olmert runs away now from the war he initiated, he will not be able to remain prime minister for even one more day. Chutzpah has its limits. You cannot lead an entire nation to war promising victory, produce humiliating defeat and remain in power. You cannot bury 120 Israelis in cemeteries, keep a million Israelis in shelters for a month, wear down deterrent power, bring the next war very close, and then say - oops, I made a mistake. That was not the intention. Pass me a cigar, please.
There is no mistake Ehud Olmert did not make this past month. He went to war hastily, without properly gauging the outcome. He blindly followed the military without asking the necessary questions. He mistakenly gambled on air operations, was strangely late with the ground operation, and failed to implement the army's original plan, much more daring and sophisticated than that which was implemented. And after arrogantly and hastily bursting into war, Olmert managed it hesitantly, unfocused and limp. He neglected the home front and abandoned the residents of the north. He also failed shamefully on the diplomatic front.
Still, if Olmert had come to his senses as Golda Meir did during the Yom Kippur War, if he had become a leader, established a war cabinet and called the nation to a supreme effort that would change the face of the battle, a penetrating discussion of his failures could be postponed. But in blinking first over the past 24 hours, he has become an incorrigible political personality. Therefore, the day Nasrallah comes out of his bunker and declares victory to the whole world, Olmert must not be in the prime minister's office. Post-war battered and bleeding Israel needs a new start and a new leader. It needs a real prime minister.
I'm certainly no expert on Israeli politics, but a recent survey states that Olmert's personal approval rating fell to 66% from 73%. which still seems pretty high, if he can turn this thing around.
But there certainly seems to be a complete lack of communication between the IDF and the cabinet. Asked why a plan for a wide-scale ground invasion was only recently approved, Olmert said:
Here
Whose running things there?
Olmert has re-flip-flopped, and now says he'll accept the cease-fire plan (after having abandoned the operational pause yesterday, which was announced immediately after the cabinet endorsed a new push to the Litani, confused yet?) . Make no mistake, this is flat our surrender and humiliation if it goes forward. I think there is a strong chance the Olmert government will stand a vote of no confidence in the immediate future.
This is truly astonishing, Olmert is accepting a deal that doesnt even return the captured soldiers that were the casus belli of this mess.
CNN and National Review's Corner blog both say that Olmert is recommending that the Israeli cabinet accept the cease-fire. The terms seem to be a clear and disastrous defeat for Israel.
This is as of 3 pm Pacific Time on Friday, which is 6 pm Eastern Time.
The only thing which appears capable of heading this off is a refusal by Hezbollah, or its inability, to cease rocket attacks on Israel.
#1, PD Shaw:
That ain't what the IDF says. See Olmert had military plan, sat on it
That such blame shifting has already begun indicates that everyone concerned understands Israel lost. They're ducking for cover. As the old saying goes, success has a thousand fathers, failure is an orphan. Note no one is claiming credit for this campaign, only pointing fingers.
Here's my crystal ball on the political principals' near future.
WTF!!!!
Rev. Sensing:
Its hard for me to believe that Olmert would be so specific and proncounced about a lack of a plan if there wasn't some truth to it. I wonder if the truth is that he was given a plan at the outset of the campaign, but a subsequent plan was not offered after troops took up their current positions just inside the border?
Is it just me or have unnamed senior military officials been leaking like a sieve throughout this camaign?