This was written by my co-blogger "Alcibiades" earlier this week:
Steven Vincent's seminal piece in the NY Times about the eroding situation in Basra, written mid-summer, is still available here.
Read it to discover why last week's debacle in Basra, between the Iraqi police and the British army was forseeable long in advance. As Steven Vincent did:
Fearing to appear like colonial occupiers, they avoid any hint of ideological indoctrination: in my time with them, not once did I see an instructor explain such basics of democracy as the politically neutral role of the police in a civil society. Nor did I see anyone question the alarming number of religious posters on the walls of Basran police stations. When I asked British troops if the security sector reform strategy included measures to encourage cadets to identify with the national government rather than their neighborhood mosque, I received polite shrugs: not our job, mate.Many people believe that Vincent was killed only a week after he published this piece, by the Shi'ite militia controlled police hit-squad that he described.The results are apparent. At the city's university, for example, self-appointed monitors patrol the campuses, ensuring that women's attire and makeup are properly Islamic. "I'd like to throw them off the grounds, but who will do it?" a university administrator asked me. "Most of our police belong to the same religious parties as the monitors." ...
...[T]he British stand above the growing turmoil, refusing to challenge the Islamists' claim on the hearts and minds of police officers. This detachment angers many Basrans. "The British know what's happening but they are asleep, pretending they can simply establish security and leave behind democracy," said the police lieutenant who had told me of the assassinations. "Before such a government takes root here, we must experience a transformation of our minds."
In other words, real security reform requires psychological as well as physical training. Unless the British include in their security sector reform strategy some basic lessons in democratic principles, Basra risks falling further under the sway of Islamic extremists and their Western-trained police enforcers.
The British have only belatedly come to a similar realization, at least in public, in response to the arrest of two undercover SAS soldiers, and the refusal of the Basra police to hand them over, countermanding an order from the Iraqi Interior Minister for their release. The arrest of these two soldiers came a day after the arrest of two leaders of the outlawed Mahdi army, the sectarian militia loyal to Muqtada al Sadr. As well as an explicit threat from this militia to retaliate. By the time the British soldiers were rescued, they were no longer in the police station, but in a house.
The SAS is a British specialist regiment trained in commando warfare and undercover operations.After two years in which the British have prided themselves on ‘working with’ the Iraqi police, and ‘building them up’, it was necessary for the British army to attack and demolish a police station in Basra. For two years we have all been kidding ourselves that the British and the Iraqis have been working hand-in-glove to restore public confidence, in Basra, in the forces of law and order. This week the citizens of Basra saw British soldiers firing on the Iraqi police, crushing Iraqi police cars with their tank tracks, and destroying the very symbol and locus of civic authority.As a result of the crisis, the British Ministry of Defence is moving "to scrap the Basra police and start again."
The dramatic events in Basra last week, when British troops attempted to rescue two SAS men from an Iraqi jail and were confronted by angry local police and protesters, have forced an urgent rethink.There was a further setback yesterday in attempts to restore normal relations between the British military and Basra city officials when it emerged an Iraqi judge had ordered the arrest of the two special forces soldiers who sparked the incident. The original withdrawal plans foresaw a reduction in the British military presence in two of the four UK-controlled provinces in southern Iraq - Maysan and al-Muthanna - by the end of this year. The handover would have been completed next spring with the withdrawal from Basra and Dhi Qar and the departure of the last of Britain's 8,000-plus troops.
But the general decline in security, and the disclosure that many members of the Basra police force owe allegiances to rival militia leaders, has sent UK planning back to the drawing board.
MoD officials fear the only lasting solution to the infiltration may be the creation of a new military police force, uncontaminated by external influences. Creating the new force - which would wear combat uniforms and be trained in military tactics - could take over a year.
Unfortunately Britain seems to suffer from the same paralysis that the US often does. Wait for a crisis to strike, and once the situation has already imploded, then react and reorganize.
This need to re-establish the police force has forced Britain to put on hold plans to withdraw part of their troops early next year. And forced Geoffrey Hoon and Tony Blair to confess that they had not prepared adequately for the level of fanaticism which would arise in the wake of the freeing of Iraq from Saddam.
Now that the election is over, Tory leader Michael Howard appears to be reverting to making sensible comments on Iraq.Michael Howard, the outgoing Tory leader, warned the Government against setting out a timetable for coalition withdrawal from Iraq.Niall Ferguson weighs in here."I think that would play into the hands of the insurgents and give them a kind of green light that after a period of time they would be able to take over," he said.
"I think that if we were to leave prematurely we would leave behind a country that would be in danger of becoming a real hotbed of international terrorism and that would be a disaster."
Unsurprisingly, the Guardian appears to read the tea leaves in the exact opposite way, emphasizing that the British will pull troops out starting next May, despite Blair's protests that he won't be held to a timetable.








So much for the Brits oft trumpeted soft glove approach. Now they are in a real pickle, its probably too late to go back and start over without an explosion of violence.
This may simply be a job for the central government to address when they are strong enough. Yeh, religious police running around isnt a good thing, but if we end up having to fight Sadr, the Sunnis, and AQ at the same time we will have a problem. At some point the people of Iraq are going to have to figure out how to deal with the fundamentalists, or if they even want to stop them. That may be beyond our control at this point.
Mark,
I share your frustration of having to hear about the great soft-glove approach, only to have this happen. However, as recognizing a problems is the first step to solving it; we should be happy that the British atleast are now making noise about fixing it.
I aggree that the Bagdad central government's support is crucial in actually getting this done, and it's incumbant that the Brits recognize this, or they may become more unpopular than the Americans in Iraq.
I fear that we about to face another Muqtata based rise in violence; especially given the ambush of Iraqi troops in Sadr City last week. I hope someone kills him this time; and perhaps the shadow war has already begun given this morning's reports of an explosion at one of Muqtata's bodyguard's house.
Actually, I strongly doubt that Basra would develop into a hotbed of terrorism. Shiite religious fanaticism, perhaps.
Praktite,
Were you saying that tongue-in-cheek? Because, surely Basra is already a hotbed of Shiite fanaticism, no?
Although I don't expect mass carbombings of the type perpetrated by the Sunni chauvenist, I do expect the kind of secret kangaroo courts and repression that came to light after Muqtata was forced out of Najaf; and I expect him to begin to show his hand more often and act under the guise of 'legitimate' police less and less. If it's not terrorism, let's call it warlordism.
I'm ambivalent on Sadr at this point. If he dies, he will be replaced, and very likely with someone who wont cut deals the way Sadr can be forced to. Its the old devil we know argument. If he is locked up, we will have a festering wound instead of a swift cut, which is even worse. I think I am of a mind to keep our eyes on the ball at the moment. Kangaroo courts and all that in Basra cant really hurt our efforts in the Sunni areas, but a military uprising surely can. If the Iraqis truly hate the fundamentalists in Basra, they will use their elections to bring in people who oppose them. If the militants then attack the lawful government, we can step in with full justification. Trying to micromanage the situation ourselves at this point would be very dangerous and probably futile.
Short answer, its not our problem, we cant solve it, and we've got bigger fish to fry.
Mark, you're probably right.
I'm curious about what line Bush's supporters and/or invasion supporters will take when the cut and run begins. The Bush administration will begin pulling out as soon as the elections are held. Their talking point will be that Iraq is a democracy now and that they will have to handle things themselves. They will gloss over and ignore situations like the one described in Basra. Will the spin be bought? Will the rationalizing begin? I'm really curious!
Are you seriously suggesting that there can be no claim of success unless we leave Iraq an idyllic society? Return to Eden huh? I guess the location is about right. Please. We've left Germany a socialist nightmare with an economy slowly draining down a toilet, I suppose WW2 was a failure as well. All we can offer is an opportunity. Whether the Iraqis grasp it is up to them. I for one smile every time I think of Kurdistan blossuming instead of 13 kids holding rifles in trenches trying to turn back Saddams death squads. But I suppose that doesnt matter to you Mycat. So long as you have a chance to blame it on America, a democratic but fundamentalist Iraq must be worse than Hu sseins rape rooms and torture chambers. Whatever.