Furthermore, submarines are incrediably expensive to maintain at sea which is the only point in having a nuclear sub deterrant. Most nations with diesal submarines have them spending the majority of their time in port ready to surge out if war breaks out or is likely to. The point of having nuclear armed subs is to deter a surprise attack. If your sub is tied to the dock its not a deterrant, its a target. Bottom line, a nuclear armed sub fleet is too expensive for Pakistan to maintain for the forseeable future.

Mark Buehner,

Even very rich countries like the UK and France only keep a half-dozen or less nuclear subs in their fleet at any time.

Joe's reference to the Israelis developing cruise missiles for use on subs is the money item here WRT a sub nuclear capability. Either you use SLBMs on subs with missile silos, and these models don't have that feature, or you use nuclear warheads on cruise missiles launched through torpedo tubes.

But Pakistan's nuclear capability is exclusively derived from PRC/NK designs on solid fuel land missile launchers. They aren't designed to work as warheads on cruise missiles, let alone validated through tests on cruise missiles.

In order to get to a sub capability, both the Pakistanis and Israelis will have to deal with warhead miniaturization and fuzing issues, and then develop a highly reliable sub launched cruise missile with a good guidance system. Not an easy task, and while I'd guess the Israelis will get it right in the next years, I strongly doubt if Pakistan has the needed technical infrastructure.

The Israeli test was of a cruise missile with a 900km range - a bit over 500 miles. Not exactly up to the standards of the U.S. Tomahawks SLCMs, but a good start.

As for warhead miniaturization and guidance, I know the Israelis can do the guidance. Miniaturization has a testing component that makes it uncertain, but Israel has had many years to refine its designs and sea-launched capability has to be a huge priority right now given events in Iran. If they don't have it down yet, they will soon.

Agree that Pakistan is going to have real problems in these areas. But they aren't insuperable given the right situation and hence the right help/sales from abroad. Not an issue yet, though.

Joe,

Thanks for the kind words re my comments over at Roger Simon's. Jerry's followup post on that site had an excellent point on fleet-wide maintenance, incidentally.

I like your followup on Pakistan's motives in the above post. I also enjoyed your 2002 post on India's carrier capability. I think I shall be a regular reader of your blog from now on.

I tend to agree (as my original comments indicated) that the future is murkier.

To explore that briefly, from my perspective, there are two reasons to push Pakistan towards nuclear-armed subs. First, to actually combat India's Navy, both as a conventional and nuclear threat. Second, as you suggest, to deal with a (real or perceived) Indian first strike capability.

In the first case, Pakistan would seem to have only three options to counter an increasingly powerful Indian Navy with: F-16's/Mirages/Chinese planes with some sort of stand off missile attack capability, subs (exocets/torpedoes say), or the nuclear option (even relatively primitive short range missiles might suffice for that. I assume sub-based, see why I don't think nuclear ALCM's are plausible below).

The value of even quite short range sub-launched nuclear missiles becomes much higher to Pakistan if we assume a carrier that is a significant part of India's nuclear retaliatory capability. Useless for a strategic Pakistani retaliatory capability, but quite useful for dealing serious Indian assets out of the game. Even the mere whisper of the existence of short range Pakistani sub launched missiles is going to give an Indian Admiral serious pause for thought when deploying his prized assets.

In the second case, as you imply (and Tom Roberts follows up on -- good points on miniaturization, etc.), they would indeed not be able to do anything with exocets/harpoons or any short ranged missile carrying a nuclear warhead. The type of sub/missile conversion posited in the original article would be next to useless. As Tom points out, they'd have to go for SLBMs on big missile subs, or at the very least cruise on (I suggest) a larger attack sub with a lot of warhead work.

There'd be 4 choices to respond to an Indian first strike capability. I see only two of them as feasible:

- sub-launched "long" range missiles (at least cruise). This would require a larger attack sub since stuff like the TLAM (Tomahawk) is substantially larger than the exocet), or, looking further ahead, a missile sub. In either case, it's not going to be the Khalid, though the Khalid will be excellent for giving them experience.

- mobile longer range land-based missiles. This is somewhat more my favourite approach, and I suspect the Pakistanis would be pushing the development of this harder than the above, sub approach, as it seems somewhat easier. It's also clearly less of a threat to anyone else in the world. This could be ballistic or cruise.

- hardened launch facilities. I doubt it. Too vulnerable, too risky. If they get the calculations wrong about how accurate (or powerful) India's missiles and warheads are, then that's it.

- air launched cruise. They don't have any bombers, the attack craft they do have have neither the endurance, range nor capability of carrying ALCMs. Seems unlikely. The sub option seems easier, and the mobile land option easier still.

To me, it seems most likely that Pakistan would be working hard on good mobile (longer range as opposed to the primitive scud-based) land-based launch capability to counter first strike capability. Going for sub-launched missiles means new everything -- missiles, warheads, launch capsules, and subs.

Of course, this doesn't preclude development of a sub-launched missile... interestingly, China's mobile land-based missile, the DF-21 was, I believe, based on China's development of a SSBN missile (the JL-1)! (Granted, yes, in China's case a missile for an SSBN not a cruise missile for an attack sub).

One final conjecture: Having a carrier is all very well for the Indian Navy. (And, ignoring the Virat, due to be phased out, they'll have two fairly new ones ca. 2011 if no construction delays). However, in the event of any serious successes by Pakistani subs early in a conflict, I suspect you might just see the carriers heading back much closer to home ports. When you have a small number of high value assets, husbanding them becomes important.

What will Pakistan do in the end? As you say, it will be informative to watch Pakistan's procurement paths over the coming years, especially sub design acquisitions.

Regards,
Holmwood

Joe- Your last point (getting the tough items from elsewhere) is a real problem which has all sorts of diplomatic and military implications. Two choices for the Pakistanis are buying Chinese or buying Korean. The PRC loosens up their technology whenever the Indians get pushy. But with Congress in power, that appreciation might change. I've not read of one citation that India is changing the BJP's aggressive missile upgrade plans, but who knows? The rogue element here is NK. They were testing long range cruise missiles last year which sorta got the Japs upset. If they do a trade with Pakistan, missiles for testing say, then there might be some real progress by the Pakistanis which nobody is looking forward to right now.

Holmwood, Joe and Tom,

Your analysis is entirely focussed on the implications for the Indian Navy; but surely those submarines can threaten more than just India.

There is a deeper implication (pun unintended) for many states in the region - including for Iranian, Israeli and the United States' interests in the region. Anti-American sentiment run deep in the armed forces as well as Pakistan's civil society. A submarine-based nuclear delivery capability poses a threat to more than just India.

OK, serious amateur here, having never sailed anything bigger than a 27 foot cabin cruiser, but...

Conventional subs are not fast. I assume they don't dive as deep as nuke boats either, as a rule.

So why assume a missile that has to be launched from inside the sub? What precludes a modular or "strap-on" external launcher similar to that of the earliest USN and USSR boomers?

Nitin,

If Pakistan had that capability, we would worry. Fortunately, they don't, and they won't soon, as explained above.

The only threat those Agosta subs represent is to ships (well, they could hit some shore targets with conventional short-rage SLAM missiles). So that's what we focused on.

Israeli and pakistani submarines are comparable, so the technology gap is what is preventing a cruise missile in Agostas.

"Conventional subs are not fast. I assume they don't dive as deep as nuke boats either, as a rule." yes but speed is only important for transit to patrol area at 30 kt a submarine is too much noisy (conventional only go to 20-25kt)

"o why assume a missile that has to be launched from inside the sub? What precludes a modular or "strap-on" external launcher similar to that of the earliest USN and USSR boomers?"

With 1-2 missiles? thats not much. Also depth and hydrodinamic problems arise.

luckylady's points should be taken in light of alternative ways of launching such missiles. Let's assume that you want a naval capability due to range issues: your missiles can't reach your targets from the homeland. At that point, if you are only interested in a first strike then you could simply use surface vessels which presumeably would be rather disposable as they then become targets after firing. No need for subs.

It is when you want either a stealth or survivable platform (over time the two are the same for subs) that the external pod becomes almost totally undesireable. First, there is the navigation issue. If you design a sub to work without the pod, then the pod will be a drag which has to be countered by constant use of the rudder when submerged. Doesn't sound too bad at low speeds, but at medium and high speeds both the rudder pushing water around and the pod causing vortices adds to the sound emissions. Not good for a sub. Second, emplacing the pod at port takes a sub with an antiship mission and converts it to another strategic mission, unlike the sub which can switch munitions internally. You aren't going to be shadowing tactical naval units with the pod on, for the reasons above.

The depth bit that luckylady brought up is due to the fact that the pod will have to be designed to keep the missile in air, as flooding the pod interior with salt water would probably be very bad for the reliability of the missile. Think "thick steel walls and complex doors".

Joe,

That's what people thought when they set out to build nukes. There may be an naval engineering version of AQ Khan out there somewhere.

I dont know for sure, why you people are against the poor Pakistanis who are just fighting for their right to exist. Pakistan's nuclear capabilites are for their defense against Indian aggression. By the way, the whole Western Media says that Pakistanis have borrowed missle tech. from China and North Korea. Ok!! I think you should include USA also because they have given Pakistan the tech. to make Shaheen which has the same guiding system tech. as of tomhawk. Also Pakistani UAVs which USA bought for Mexico-USA border patroling are replica of praditor. Now why a country like USA needs to buy low tech. weaponsfrom country like Pakistan?? Now people you will also see a most tech. advance cruise missle in the world from Pakistan in 2005 or 2006 also JF-17 fighter get which is more capable than any midium fighter in world today (In Production, first bage due to arrive in 2006). Then tell me who are Pakistanis copying? Oh!!! India is also dependent on Russia for its complete military hardware even its missiles are 70 to 80 % Russian made. So, We are not the only then.

Pakistan just test-fired its indigenously developed cruise missle, and those are also going to be deployed with Pak Navy and Pak Air Force(Sea and Air Launched!). These cruise missiles have an initial range of 500KM, but will be expanded in the future.
During the Invasion of Afghanistan, US lost many Tomahawk Cruise missles to misfiring in Pakistani territory, and not all were recovered. So its very likely that Pakistan also incorporated some technology from the latest US cruise missles into its own program. With this tech, Pakistan does have the second strike Nuclear platform it badly needed to counter India's.

It's quite long silence here Ali .... !

It's a quite long silence here Ali .... !

The Pakistanis have recently lauched a cruise missile(Babur) whose sophistication outshines that of neighbooring India. The missile looks remarkably similar to a miniature Tomahawk. These can easily be applied to its existing Sub force. Though smaller, and having a weaker economic base; Pakistan has routinely shown itself as an ingenious nation capable of suprising many especially with the recent economic tournaround. Pakistan has always been the underdog, The Israel of the Asian SubContinent. The Maximus of Gladiator and David in David vs Goliath. I for one will not discredit this marvelous and ingenious nation. I look forward and with interest as to the way in which this nation adapts militarily and to the indigenous arms industry which is rapidly making its mark the world over. Pakistan to me, and I cant myself fully understand why; reminds me of martial Japan undergoing rapid Industrial and economic growth with all the chaos and social strive the accompanies. It will most likely become a regional power in the near future. Al Goldman

Pakistans submarine are NOT a threat to India and infact add stability to that important region as it is the entry way to the Persian Gulf. India's unchecked military buildup over the past few decades are the real cause for South Asian nations like Pakistan to building up of their fleets and armed forces. Pakistan being a major Non-Nato ally of the US has consistently provided assistance to US/Europeon/Nato forces in the past whereas India's cooperation has always been fairwether(due to courting of Russia) and India's true intentions are unclear and malingering at best if one looks at recent Indian politics and policies. Pakistan has and is a proud nation which is wrongly critized and often misconstrued in some media. The real situation in South should be understood. Pakistan has routinely called for the de-nuclearization of South Asia- but it is India which has refused; it was India which started the Nuclear race back 1974 with its smaller neighboor when it indiscriminately detonated a nuclear devise near Pakistans border which forced that nation to do the same and raised the level of tension in South Asia. Indias air force is 4 times larger than Pakistans, its army 3 times and the Indian Navy 4 times. So who's kidding who that Pakistans subs are a threat, the cause of the threat is India's military expansion and it is this that remains the prime threat to peace in stability in the region. Al Goldman

Nitin

Your comment that PN Agostas can be a threat to Iran, Israel or USA is not correct. Had this been the case, France would never have transferred the submarine building tecbnology to Pakistan.

All the major world powers as well as countries like Iran, Israel, etc., are aware of the fact that whatever Pakistan purcahses, designs or produced is always India Specific.

If you look at the expension of Indian Navy, even Australia, a friendly country to India seems to be worried about the same.

You also tried to give an impression as if officers of Pakistani Army and public hate US and its policies so it may be true on person to person but not as an institution.

Though Pakistan Army is known for ruling Pakistan for more than 40 years, is also known as one of the most professional armed forces in the world.

Its officers are highly disciplined and have traditions following Royal British Army of the prepartition days.

In other parts of the world there are many example of coups where same army seems fratriciding itelf. You wont find a single example of it in Pakistani Armed Forces.

There is no chance at all that Pakistan Nucelar Weapons will some day be used by its custodians at their will.

Interantionally, the military experts are now commenting that Pakistan's Command and Control System is very safe and highly professional vis-a-vis its foe India.

I 100% agree with Al Goldman and end my comment which he made in the above post i.e.

"I for one will not discredit this marvelous and ingenious nation. I look forward and with interest as to the way in which this nation adapts militarily and to the indigenous arms industry which is rapidly making its mark the world over. Pakistan to me, and I cant myself fully understand why; reminds me of martial Japan undergoing rapid Industrial and economic growth with all the chaos and social strive the accompanies. It will most likely become a regional power in the near future"

Hatf VII Babur: more than being at par

By

Humera Niazi

Terrain-hugging, pinpoint precision, potentially invisible to radar, the Hatf VII Babur cruise missile was successfully tested by Pakistan on August 11. This has not only proved that Pakistan excels in defence capability but has also served to make this reality accepted at the international level. The missile has been launched in the following context:

(i) An Indian quest for achieving advanced weapons systems with the recent agreement for cooperation between US and India.

(ii) India's recent tirade of falsely maligning Pakistan's nuclear potential at Washington.

It was only recently that India entered into a defence and nuclear agreement with the United States. This has enabled India to achieve advance ballistic missile defence systems. Hence India, which is already on an arms-acquisition spree, through this development is out to create a strategic imbalance in the South Asian region. In addition to affecting Indo-Pak relations, this development has also caused concern among other countries of the region. A fully accelerated arms race has been commenced on India's part. What is the reason for India to further build its defence muscle? Is this a regional or a country-specific venture? In the Pakistani perspective, the only factor that is important is that Pakistan has every right to protect its sovereignty.

President Pervez Musharraf has once again stated the Pakistan's resolve to meet the emerging challenges in the neighbourhood, making it clear that "Pakistan's security was not negotiable."

According to Jane's Defence Weekly, Pakistan's development of this Cruise Missile provides its arsenal with a significant boost. Commenting on the issue, the US State Department said Pakistan's cruise missile test "meets the criteria" of not being "provocative" or "threatening." When the State Department spokesman was informed that Pakistan did not inform India about it, he maintained positively, "It was done in a way that was not alarming and was not a surprise."

Pakistan's position on this becomes clear as the recent agreement between India and Pakistan only refers to ballistic missiles and not cruise missiles. It is also said that Babur is an air-breathing missile and therefore belongs to a different class of weapons. Another significant aspect of the testing of Babur is that it counters the Indian plan of acquiring advanced anti-missile system from the US and Israel. That is, even if they acquire these systems. In the offing were the acquisition of Israeli Aero and US Patriots. After Pakistan's launching of Babur cruise missile, the Indian quest for anti-missile system appears to be another story.

The successful testing of Babur has also indicated that there was an Indian intelligence lapse. For it appears that New Delhi had no idea that Pakistan could develop a cruise missile indigenously. This is apparent from the recent refusal of the Indian government to bring the cruise missile system under the missile control regime.

The successful launch of Babur is also a strong rejoinder to Indian lies and utterances with regard to the effectiveness of Pakistan's command and control structure. During Dr Manmohan Singh's recent visit to the US, India made an effort to create a misconception that Pakistan's nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of extremists. But the US has given a positive response to the successful test firing of Babur.

In its recent offensive in Washington, India appears to have broached a serious matter but with irresponsibility because of its irrational ideas. New Delhi is pointing at a situation which does not exist. In this context, it is apt to cite an analysis by a Canadian journalist, Eric Margolis of The Toronto Sun, who observes that India's "shaky" nuclear command and control system further increases the risk of nuclear conflict in the subcontinent. Pakistan, he points out, is believed to have a "more reliable and highly professional" command and control system.

Margolis in his article mentions with praise the achievement of Babur missile. He states, "Development of this cruise missile is a significant achievement for Pakistani defence technology." The writer further maintains that the Babur missile poses an even greater threat to India than Pakistan's 2000 KM ranged Shaheen II ballistic missile. He says that "Babur's advanced radar mapping technology and engine puts it in the class of western and Russian cruise missiles."

Credit goes to Pakistani scientists and engineers for this indigenous achievement. India had tested the BrahMos missile with the help of Russia. Babur has a greater range than BrahMos and is equally capable of being mounted on platforms at sea, land and air.

Babur missile is a timely boost for Pakistan's defence image. It comes at a time when Pakistan is to receive the oddity of two F-16s, whereas India aspires for ballistic missile defence system. Babur could be seen as the balancing act. Pakistan is a step ahead because of its indigenous efforts.

Pakistan's stance is for peace and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has stated that "Pakistan is against nuclear proliferation and as a responsible country it will continue its efforts to promote peace in the region." It is India that started the nuclear race in South Asia in the seventies with the Smiling Buddha, its first test fission explosion on May 18, 1974. Hence India should also take the lead in making South Asian region a nuclear free zone and work positively on this course.

Hatf VII Babur: more than being at par

By

Humera Niazi

Terrain-hugging, pinpoint precision, potentially invisible to radar, the Hatf VII Babur cruise missile was successfully tested by Pakistan on August 11. This has not only proved that Pakistan excels in defence capability but has also served to make this reality accepted at the international level. The missile has been launched in the following context:

(i) An Indian quest for achieving advanced weapons systems with the recent agreement for cooperation between US and India.

(ii) India's recent tirade of falsely maligning Pakistan's nuclear potential at Washington.

It was only recently that India entered into a defence and nuclear agreement with the United States. This has enabled India to achieve advance ballistic missile defence systems. Hence India, which is already on an arms-acquisition spree, through this development is out to create a strategic imbalance in the South Asian region. In addition to affecting Indo-Pak relations, this development has also caused concern among other countries of the region. A fully accelerated arms race has been commenced on India's part. What is the reason for India to further build its defence muscle? Is this a regional or a country-specific venture? In the Pakistani perspective, the only factor that is important is that Pakistan has every right to protect its sovereignty.

President Pervez Musharraf has once again stated the Pakistan's resolve to meet the emerging challenges in the neighbourhood, making it clear that "Pakistan's security was not negotiable."

According to Jane's Defence Weekly, Pakistan's development of this Cruise Missile provides its arsenal with a significant boost. Commenting on the issue, the US State Department said Pakistan's cruise missile test "meets the criteria" of not being "provocative" or "threatening." When the State Department spokesman was informed that Pakistan did not inform India about it, he maintained positively, "It was done in a way that was not alarming and was not a surprise."

Pakistan's position on this becomes clear as the recent agreement between India and Pakistan only refers to ballistic missiles and not cruise missiles. It is also said that Babur is an air-breathing missile and therefore belongs to a different class of weapons. Another significant aspect of the testing of Babur is that it counters the Indian plan of acquiring advanced anti-missile system from the US and Israel. That is, even if they acquire these systems. In the offing were the acquisition of Israeli Aero and US Patriots. After Pakistan's launching of Babur cruise missile, the Indian quest for anti-missile system appears to be another story.

The successful testing of Babur has also indicated that there was an Indian intelligence lapse. For it appears that New Delhi had no idea that Pakistan could develop a cruise missile indigenously. This is apparent from the recent refusal of the Indian government to bring the cruise missile system under the missile control regime.

The successful launch of Babur is also a strong rejoinder to Indian lies and utterances with regard to the effectiveness of Pakistan's command and control structure. During Dr Manmohan Singh's recent visit to the US, India made an effort to create a misconception that Pakistan's nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of extremists. But the US has given a positive response to the successful test firing of Babur.

In its recent offensive in Washington, India appears to have broached a serious matter but with irresponsibility because of its irrational ideas. New Delhi is pointing at a situation which does not exist. In this context, it is apt to cite an analysis by a Canadian journalist, Eric Margolis of The Toronto Sun, who observes that India's "shaky" nuclear command and control system further increases the risk of nuclear conflict in the subcontinent. Pakistan, he points out, is believed to have a "more reliable and highly professional" command and control system.

Margolis in his article mentions with praise the achievement of Babur missile. He states, "Development of this cruise missile is a significant achievement for Pakistani defence technology." The writer further maintains that the Babur missile poses an even greater threat to India than Pakistan's 2000 KM ranged Shaheen II ballistic missile. He says that "Babur's advanced radar mapping technology and engine puts it in the class of western and Russian cruise missiles."

Credit goes to Pakistani scientists and engineers for this indigenous achievement. India had tested the BrahMos missile with the help of Russia. Babur has a greater range than BrahMos and is equally capable of being mounted on platforms at sea, land and air.

Babur missile is a timely boost for Pakistan's defence image. It comes at a time when Pakistan is to receive the oddity of two F-16s, whereas India aspires for ballistic missile defence system. Babur could be seen as the balancing act. Pakistan is a step ahead because of its indigenous efforts.

Pakistan's stance is for peace and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has stated that "Pakistan is against nuclear proliferation and as a responsible country it will continue its efforts to promote peace in the region." It is India that started the nuclear race in South Asia in the seventies with the Smiling Buddha, its first test fission explosion on May 18, 1974. Hence India should also take the lead in making South Asian region a nuclear free zone and work positively on this course.

The writer is a freelance journalist. Email: niazi101pk@yahoo.com

Babur Cruise Missile

Posted by vkthakur on Saturday, August 13, 2005 (EST)

Pakistan's remarkable success in testing a long range cruise missile has brought out weaknesses in our strategic intelligence and weapon development.

Pakistan's recent testing of the Babur cruise missile is sure to have rattled decision makers in New Delhi. Though there has been no official comment, reaction to the event in the Indian press is a good indicator that our government had no clue of what Pakistan was upto.

Initial press reports harped on the fact that the missile must have been developed with outside assistance, possibly from China. Big deal! Does that make the missile any less potent? Besides, the facade of joint production notwithstanding, our own Brahmos is really a derivative of the Russian Yakhont missile, tweaked to conform to the limitations of the MTCR regime. Incidentally, while our Brahmos is chained to 300 km range limit for ever the Babur is already 200kms ahead!

There can be no denying that Pakistan has achieved a remarkable success in developing a sophisticated weapon system. I think rather than grudging Pakistan its success we should focus on the strategic implications of that success for us. In addition we need to focus on

Our apparant dismal lack of strategic intelligence.
The poor performance of our own weapon development programs vis-a-vis Pakistan.
Intelligence Failure
There is good circumstancial evidence to suggest that the Babur is based on off the shelf components procured by Pakistan from abroad.

The fact that the development of the missile by Pakistan went undetected was because of the fact that it was never developed by Pakistan. An attempt to build a cruise or a ballistic missile from scratch is easy to detect, even for Indian intelligence! Testing of unproven rocket motors requires building of physical infrastructure that can be detected by commercially available high resolution satellites.

Another indicator is the confidence expressed by General Pervez Musharaf in the capabilities of the Babur missile after just its first test. If a complex system, such as a cruise missile, were to be developed from scratch it would take years if not decades of testing to acquire the confidence that General Prevez Musharaf expressed. India's own labored effort with developing ballistic and air defense missile development illustrates my point.

One could suggest that the General was boasting and that the missile is neither fully developed nor as potent as he would want us and his countrymen to believe. Indeed, there is no denying the proclivity of the Pakistani establishment to boast. The following statement attributed to a Pakistani army spokesperson illustrates the point.

"It is a terrain hugging missile, which has the most advanced and modern navigation and guidance and a high degree of maneuverability and its technology enables it to avoid radar detection and penetrate undetected through any hostile defence system."

Clearly the "most advanced" and "penetrate through any hostile defense system" bits are boasts. However, a boast is not a bluff. When General Pervez Musharraf stated :-

"In quality, it (Babur) is far better. Brahmos has a range of 290-300 kilometres while … Babur can hit a target up to 500 kilometres".

He was, in all probabilites, grounded in facts and if that is so like the Brahmos, Pakistan's Babur is based on a well tested weapon system.

Clearly the Babur is not a home grown missile. Pakistan must have acquired the missile, its engines and electronics, all from abroad.

Acquisition of critical missile components and technology from abroad by Pakistan should not have been difficult for our intelligence agencies to detect. Our country has good relations with western nations and Ukraine from where the electronics for the Babur were probably sourced. There are understandable difficulties in penetrating a closed society like China. However, Indian intelligence can compensate by better infiltrating Pakistan and maintaining closer liason with intelligence agencies of other friendly countries. I for one would be very surprised if the Mossad was not aware of it! Afterall, the Babur could easily find its way into Iranian and Palestinian hands!

I think our focus should be on fixing our strategic intelligence apparatus so that Pakistan's purchase of critical missile components and technology abroad does not go undetectd. Only then will we have an opportunity to prevent the dangerous escalation that seems to be taking place in the sub continent.

One would imagine that the Kargil fiasco would have woken up India to the need for good intelligence. Apparantly, it has not.

Frankly, a nuclear weapon state with such a pathetic strategic intelligence gathering capability as India is a danger to the entire world.

Indigenous Weapon Development
Measured by any yardstick, India's own weapon development progams have performed very poorly. When compared with efforts in Pakistan our failings appear magnified.

If it has not so far dawned on our government that DRDO has been leading the nation up the garden path for decades now, it should now.

Pakistan with the success of its Khalid MBT, JF-17 Combat Fighter and Missile development programs has shown that it is more cost effective to build on existing technology procured from abroad rather than create it. Indeed, our own Brahmos program illustrates the same.

However, DRDO does not seem to have learnt any lessons. It continue to leverage its indigneous slogan, which has a compelling appeal to the sentiments of the uninformed masses, to grow in size and inefficiency. Its steady bloat is suckering the country out of its resources enfeebling, rather than strengthening it.

Conclusion
With the first test of the Babur cruise missile Pakistan has achieved a remarkable success. The missile itself poses little threat to India. The boasts of the Pakistani army spokesperson notwithstanding, cruise missiles can be detected and engaged. For example the F-18E/D with a AN/APG-79 AESA Radar and AIM-120 air to air missile can detect and engage a missile such as the Babur.

Enagagement of cruise missile will be greatly assisted by the acquisition and the integration of the Phalcon AWACS from Israel in the years to come.

Unlike ballistic missiles a subsonic cruise missile takes a significant amount of time to reach its target. This allows for a multiple layered defense.

The threat to India will continue to be from ballistic missile that Pakistan fields now and in the future.

The above perspective notwithstanding the Babur missile test does highlight the failures in Indian intelligence and defense production. These are serious failures considering that we are right in the middle of two nuclear armed and aggressive adversaries. The country's leadership should not only address these failures but assure the nation that they will not be repeated.

I congratulate the proud indians whohave not begrudged pakistan for its ballistic missile superiority but indeed have shown great impartiality, We must be crystal clear in our conclusion that pakistan can never be of military equalness with india but pakistan has a clear determination to fight for what it believes in and strides to achieve the near impossible in the face of such adversity, India and pakistan must now come to the inevitable conclusion that if war was to break out and nukes were to be used it would result in both countries going back to a post apocolyptic era, Pakistan is a proud nation whom will not go down without a real fight and the indian government must never miscalculate this as this would be disaster for the region. amjad shah

To whom it may concern:

Have you heard or read anything about rogue submarines armed with nuclear warheads patroling the American shores? Presumably these are old Russian subs being used by Al Qaeda. Anything? I've heard this now from two legitimate sources. But I have no more security clearance and no way of digging deeper.

Great site.

Kind regards,
Randall Gray

Randall Grey,

The very idea is beyond ludicrous, in "don't take the brown acid" territory. Sleep easy.

Pakistan acquisition of subs is line with whats happening globally and same goes for development of strike capabilities. Its high time for Muslims States to wake up to reality that, the war on terror by no means is "War Against Terrorists" its just against Muslim Countries and Muslims all over the world - examples now quite visble by what is happening in Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan.

American and European Governments talk about development of nuclear capabilities of Muslim States - "I WOULD LIKE SOMEBODY TO HIGHLIGHT THE OPTIONS AVAILABLE IF TERRORISM BY ORGANISATION TURNS INTO STATE TERRORISM WITH WORLD SUPER POWERS LIKE AMERICA AND ENGLAND ON FORE-FRONT AS SPONSORS". My Friends its do or die situation I support all 3rd world countries to develop this technology and mean of its delivery so that Terrorist States are threatened and kept at bay.

Secondly, please be assured its a matter of time, India's turn is just round the corner, as Americans and Europeans want Indian support to de-stabilze China only as they used Pakistan and all Muslim States for USSR.

It should be a wake-up call for us in sub-continent and Leaders of China, Pakistan and India should work for betterment of the region forgetting the regional disputes but looking at the global Terror threat of America and its rogue allies.

Most importantly I would highly suggest people of countries like USA and Allied European States to ask themselves - THE FLAG BEARERS OF HUMAN RIGHTS "IS WAR IN LEBANON JUSTIFIED? IS THE WAR IN LEBANON REALLY ABOUT TWO SOLDIERS? WHAT IS THE MISTAKE OF A CHILD IS IT THAT HE WAS BORN ON LEBANON? ISNT WAR IN LEBANON STATE TERRORISM BY ROGUE STATES LIKE ISRAEL?

This is nothing short of intellectual masturbation. If (and a very big one, at that), there is a war between India and Pakistan, the only certainty is that there will be a godalmighty chaos - on both the sides. The outcome would be anybody's guess. I have seen such fights (miniaturised ones) in bars and pubs when punters drink too much and decide to flex their muscles.

My sincere suggestion to all of you: please go out and do something useful. Like, assist old ladies cross roads or start a drive for cleaning up beaches and parks.

Good day
S

let me make it clear to everybody, Pakistan submarines with nuclear tip missiles are already patrolling in the atlantic ocean, pacific ocean and carribbean sea.
so there is nothing to worry about. Just everybody sit back and relax.
thanks to our enemies.

i totally agree with Al Goldman. but its time now to tell the whole world about pakistan. that pakistan is a responsible country in the world. pakistan is going to increas the Arms race in the worl. it is India who is increasing their Military power in terms of to be likely as Asia'a Power.
india Starts Nuclear Program 1st. it was pakistan who started its Nuclear Program for its Defense.

but if the Westerns Countries & Indians think, that Pakistan is a threat to Indai, it True.
bcoz India is also a big Threat to Pakistan.

Even Pakistan now has more Advanced Nuclear Program than India. Pakistani Missiles Like Shaheen & Ghauri, Ghaznavi, Abdali, Hairer, Tipu, & Specially Babur Cruise Missiles are More Advanced & Destructive than any Indian Missile. so it might be a major Threat to India. Even Pakistani Subs are also threat for India,
but
India has more power than Pakistan in Non Conventional Weapons.
Now paistanis are building high-tech Fighters & Early warning systems. high-tech Missiles & spy Planes, High-Tech Tanks.
but
it is only for pakistan's defense, not for agression.
i think that its only way for pakistan to get power over india & compete india in this field with these High Tech Systems.
bcoz india is more superior than pakistan in Non-Conventional Arms.

Indians love to live in the state of denial when it comes to any achievement by Pakistan's defence related achievement.

They try to downplay Pakistani technological progress and always boast of their supremacy. Let them live in fool's paradise. If they ever try to attack Pakistan, they will taste the shock and awe as a result of Pakistani missile attacks.

Babur cruise missile is a significant achievenent and definitely a distrubing delimma for the Indian war planners.

Shooting down a cruise missile is not that simple. It requires technology and skills which India does not seem to have possess as yet.

Shooting down a cruise missile would be more difficult if it is fired from a jet fighter or from a submarine.

In case of war, our cruise missiles will stretch Indian defences so much that our air force will have easy gaps in penetrating towards Indian targets easily.

Producing cruise missile is of course cheaper than a ballistic missile. In case of war India should expect at least 300 to 500 attacks in first three days of the war.

Also imaging long range Pakistani JF-17 Thunder armed with C-803 missile loitering over coast of India in search of targets of opportunity and launching lethal missiles at their will.

Now I suggest that India should increase number of AWACS and MRCA to at least four times if they want to save their tail from our Tail Chopper JF-17 Thunder sqaudrons!