Simon (of Simon World) says:
"I've written a piece titled Post Communist China, which asks what is the plan if and when the Communist Party falls? What is the best way to ensure a liberal democracy takes root and what are the potential alternatives? I would appreciate your comments and thoughts. It is a debate that needs to happen before, not after, the fall."
Interesting premise, and Kate of The Roadkill Diaries also has a recent letter from Guangzhou that's worth your time. Yeah, Winds has a few thoughts and resources to offer....
- To answer those sorts of scenario questions, it helps to be able to chart the underlying trends and forces in a society right now, then group them and look at the different stories they might tell. Winds' comprehensive post on China's Stresses, Goals, Military Buildups... and Futures offers some of that, along with tips on how to do that analysis.
- You can also find trends, indicators, and possibilities in my Oct. 2004 China framework article, which adds contributions from a number of readers on each point.
- After reading Simon's thoughts, some of his issues are addressed directly in our recent piece about democracy, liberty and global development, which talks about China in particular. That post includes new insights into Barnett's "Pentagon's New Map" core/gap thesis, the China vs. India models, the idea of an intelligence/ knowledge base 'river' in every society, and why lack of "requisite variety" in China (i.e. a blocked river) may kill you or those you love.
Having thrown those out there, I'll start with a provocative idea:
Once the problem is framed in terms of requisite variety, could it be possible to have a non-Democratic China Post-CPC, that nonetheless takes steps in the right direction and so sets the stage for coping now and positive change later? What could that look like?
Back to you, Simon (and to our readers, too)....
UPDATE: New Winds Top Prospect (we rotate that blogroll now and again, as Den Beste-san did) Pundita responds to Simon World. (Hat Tip: Dave Schuler)