This one comes to me from IAGS, the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.
U.S. Dept. of Energy: World oil demand to jump 50% by 2025
According to the Department of Energy's newly released International Energy Outlook 2003-2025, world energy consumption is projected to increase by 58 percent over the next 22 years. World oil consumption is projected to increase by 1.8 percent annually over the 22-year projection period, from 77 million barrels per day today to 119 million barrels per day in 2025.
OPEC producers are expected to be the major beneficiaries of increased production requirements. The cartel's output will more than double from the current 25 million barrels per day to almost 56 million barrels per day by 2025. Non-OPEC supply is expected to remain competitive though most will come from offshore resources requiring expensive recovery.
Despite expectations that countries in many parts of the world will be switching from oil to natural gas and other fuels for their electricity generation, robust growth in transportation energy use - overwhelmingly fueled by petroleum products - is expected to retain oil's predominance in the global energy mix. While industrialized countries continue to consume more of the world's petroleum products than developing nations, the gap is projected to narrow during the forecast period. Developing countries use about 64 percent as much oil as the industrialized nations, and by 2025 their consumption will increase so that it will be 86 percent.
Read the Department of Energy's report. To read more about the future of oil from IAGS, click here.
Here's the thing though:
While these projections of increased oil demand are likely to be correct, it's also unsurprising. Projections about future demand for oil always show significant growth in the future, and are usually correct. A similar survey done in 1970 would have predicted that we would be using a lot more oil by 2000, and it would have been correct.
Yet despite this steady growth in demand for oil, the price of oil has gone down every decade for the entire last century. On aggregate average, it is lower today than it was in 1993, and 1993 was lower than 1983, and 1983 was lower than 1973, and so on back as far back as you care to go.
Because proven oil reserves continue to expand significantly faster than demand.
The OPEC nations make far less money now than they used to on oil, and there is much reason to believe that, even with this growth, the trend toward oil becoming cheaper and less profitable will very possibly continue.
No mention of hybrid vehicles which will in time be predominant in the auto market. No mention of switching the auto auxilaries to electric power which means an end to power robbing belt drive. Even cam shafts for the valve train are expected to be electronic in the near future. Which means cam profiles can be optimised for every engine speed and power. Even if autos don't go full hybrid they will not idle when stopped for much longer.
No serious mention of wind power where a size increase from the current 1.5 MW turbines to 3 MW jobs will make wind electricity cost competitive with coal without the current subsidy. Wind is a compliment to gas. You get the most wind in the winter when gas is most needed for heating. Gas fired turbine plants can be throttled up and down easily to compliment wind availability. Texas (which sells a lot of gas) is going great guns in installing wind turbines. It means they can export more gas which is easier to transport than electricity.
For reasons other than Dean cites (and I think he is correct) I believe the report is bogus.