While I prepare my reply to Eric Martin's multi-part epilogue on the subject of Iraq, I'd take the time to note (as Nadezha already has) that despite the substantial gap between our different views of the Middle East that Juan Cole and I seem to agree on the fact that withdrawing from Iraq could really screw the Middle East over, even if we disagree on the particulars. The reason I bring this up is in order to demonstrate that there's very little disagreement in the basic understanding that no matter how many political points advocating immediate US withdrawl from Iraq might score, those who think that they are removing either US troops or America as a whole from harm are going to find themselves sorely mistaken.
Cole is wrong on his point #6, that the U.S. isn't allowing the Iraqis to have tanks. The Iraqi 1st Mechanized Division is being equipped with T-72s donated by Hungary, and has its first brigade already operational AFAIK.
I don't think any lack of tanks would be because we're "afraid" of the tanks being turned on us, either - in both Gulf wars, the Coalition showed it could tank kill with relative ease. I think the concerns would be more from Iraq's neighbors, who would be fairly suspicious of Iraqi intentions if they started reconstituting the large tank formations that existed in the Iraqi army during Saddam's reign.
As I noted on my own blog this morning I think that Professor Cole's prescription is not completely unreasonable but he's making some tacit assumptions that don't hold water. If the Coalition withdraws from the cities, they will become safe havens for terrorists and there will be a lot more terrorism there. There is simply no way for us to achieve the imputed benefits of withdrawal from Iraq e.g. demotivating the anti-U. S. insurgency there without withdrawing from Iraq.
Good for you, that you also mention when Cole is putting forth a responsible position, and not simply your disagreements with him.
Personally, I appreciate that.
Cole is an idiot outside of his narrow band of expertise (language and culture).
Tanks require heavy maintenance and support; Iraqis simply don't have much there right now. Air requires even more.
THAT is the limiting factor
We are already withdrawing in Iraq. TF Baghdad has closed 13 FOB's this year, TF Liberty has closed 9, with a 10th scheduled and TF Freedom has closed 1. The troops numbers haven't changed much, as more attention gets paid to the Syrian border, but at some point, the troop levels will start dropping. Parking 100,000 troops in Al Anbar seems foolish, might as well go joy riding thru syria(rumor has it, Lebanon has some serious babes).
The message being sent to Iraqi's by actions is clear...call the police if bad guys show up in your neighborhood...and US Soldier's will move out of your neighborhood. Don't call the police, and even more soldier's will move into your neighborhood.
Cole: The new Iraqi military's lack of tanks is almost certainly because the US is afraid they might be turned on US troops in a crisis.
A crisis? What sort of "crisis" would that be, professor?
Would to God that every murdering scumbag on the planet could be assembled in one place and equipped with a T-72 tank. One day's work for the Warthogs and the Armored Cav, then Utopia!
We debunked that claim about tanks at least once before.
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