Winds of Change.NET: Liberty. Discovery. Humanity. Victory.

Formal Affiliations
  • Anti-Idiotarian Manifesto
  • Euston Democratic Progressive Manifesto
  • Real Democracy for Iran!
  • Support Denamrk
  • Million Voices for Darfur
  • milblogs
Syndication
 Subscribe in a reader

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-03-24

| 10 Comments | 2 TrackBacks

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPIC

  • Haiti remains in the news as the aftermath of Aristide's departure leaves some unanswered questions and a rift between the US and Caricom.

Other Topics Include: Hugo Chávez continues to rail against his foes (real and imagined) and presume he has friends where he, in fact, doesn't; Interesting news from several Central American countries; Brazil's financial worries after its worst economic performance in 11 years; Cuba reaches a disgraceful anniversary; An exciting and comprehensive introductory series of books on Latin America.

HAITI

  • Was Aristide pushed? Obviously it depends upon who you talk to. The former president and his supporters, to no one's surprise say yes. The Bush administration and its supporters, also to no one's surprise say no. The truth, as it usually does, probably lies somewhere in the middle. An American security guard who served as one of Aristide's bodyguards contends that Aristide was duped by US authorities, which squares with Aristide's account. Personnel at the US Embassy in Port-au-Prince contend that Aristide left on his own and willingly. Given the increasing violence prior to his departure, one could make an argument that Aristide's choice was Hobson's Choice.
  • If the Caribbean Community (Caricom) had negotiated a power sharing arrangement, the US had approved it and Aristide had agreed to it, why did the US press for Aristide's departure when the opposition rejected the proposed agreement? This is really vexing and has probably troubled me the most. Regardless of how one feels about this particular instance, I don't think it bodes well for subsequent diplomatic initiatives in the Americas. It is puzzling to me when one side in a dispute accepts the terms, the other side doesn't and rather than mediate further, the side that accepted the terms is pressured to capitulate. According to one of the articles cited above, the "move was prompted, aides said, by unexpected progress of anti-Aristide militias." Marcela Sanchez makes a compelling argument that the dispute in Washington is not doing Haiti any good.
  • The Caricom nations have refused to participate in any peacekeeping force in Haiti and, the rift between Haiti and its closest neighbors was widened with the arrival of Aristide in Jamaica, although the Caricom nations have asked Nigeria to grant Aristide asylum and the African nation has agreed. Perhaps Aristide and Charles Taylor can learn to play golf or help in the training of Nigeria's formidable national soccer team, the Super Eagles. I think that there time might be better used on reflecting on the limits of authoritarian power in developing nations . . . [Update: Aristide has declined Nigeria's offer]

VENEZUELA

  • Hugo Chávez continues to decompensate and blame anyone and everyone other than his imperious and divisive rule for Venezuela's problems. After threatening to cut off oil supplies to the US, he has backed down, perhaps after he realized that might entail closing all Citgo stations and driving Venezuela's economy deeper into red ink.
  • Chávez's Foreign Minister, Jesus Perez indicated that if President Bush were not reelected, that US-Venezuelan relations would improve. Senator Kerry quickly and unequivocally disabused Perez of this notion with a firm criticism of Chávez's rule, stating among other things, that Chávez has "repeatedly undermined democratic institutions by using extra-legal means, including politically motivated incarcerations, to consolidate power." Be careful what you wish for . . .

CENTRAL AMERICA

  • First, El Salvador. Antonio Saca of the right-wing ARENA party appears to have won the presidential election, beating Shafik Handal of the left-wing FMLN, a man almost twice his age. Expect a continuation of the same sort of rule under outgoing President Flores.
  • In Nicarauga, ex-president Arnoldo Alemán has been forcibly moved from house arrest where he was being held for health reasons to a regular prison. Alemán was convicted of diverting some $100 million in government funds (in this the second poorest country in the Americas) to his party and his pocket. After being sentenced to 20 years in jail and fined $10 million, he now faces hard time. If you look at him, though, being on prison rations might save his life.
  • Good news from Guatemala as new president, Oscar Berger announced his intent to reduce his nation's army by 50%. The Guatemalan Army has been riddled with corruption for a number of years and has been linked to drug dealers and death squads. It won't be missed.

BRAZIL

  • Nothing is as worrisome in Brazil as inflation. It has been especially brutal on the poor, and with a president devoted to helping the poorest of the poor, keeping inflation under control in Brazil has been a major priority since Lula took control of the Palácio do Planalto.
  • The preferred method to fight inflation in Brazil for the past several years has focused on high interest rates. While inflation has been kept much lower than n the 1980's, the interest rates have stifled growth and made it extremely difficult to develop new business and for current businesses to expand. The crux of the issue seems to be a disconnect between the banking sector and the manufacturing sector.
  • With an overnight rate of 16.5% (imagine the panic if that were the best ratee in the US) and dubious claims of the economy overheating (following a year in which it actually shrank.2%), made worse by a weak dollar (a rare complaint in Brazil) one wonders who will have the president's ear in this battle: the bankers, the manufacturers or the unemployed, who might be willing to live with a little increase in inflation - provided they have an income.

CUBA

  • Last week marked the first anniversary of the arrest of the 75 dissidents by the Castro regime. Human Rights Watch along with several other human rights organizations issued a joint statement condemning the arrests and calling for the release of the dissidents.
  • Of course Castro did not expect the arrests to unify the family members of these freedom fighters whose only weapons are words and justice, nor did he expect condemnation from unexpected corners for his acts as previously imprisoned dissident Vladimiro Roca pointed out. Everyone who cares about freedom and justice must not let these brave souls be forgotten.

BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Duke University Press has just issued the fifth book in a terrific series of "Readers" on specific countries in Latin America. These are very comprehensive anthologies of writings of many aspects of Latin American culture, politics and history and make for a great introuduction to each country. They have volumes about Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Mexico and have just released one on Cuba. I hope further volumes of all the countries are on their way. I'd especially like to see Chile, Colombia and Venezuela.

The next installment of Randinho's Latin America Briefing will be April 28. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Latin American events can be found at Beautiful Horizons.

2 TrackBacks

Tracked: March 25, 2004 3:13 AM
Excerpt: My latest Winds of Change Latin America Briefing is available at the Winds of Change site. Click over at check it out. I'd also like to point out that Joe Katzman, who created and manages the site, is from a
Tracked: March 26, 2004 9:21 AM
Excerpt: Tomorrow Mute Troubadour is coming by for the tour of the nation's Republican heartburnland.

10 Comments

I got this in an email from a friend (translation first):
Caracas.- Roger Capella, the Secretary of Health and Social Development, warned that those public servants working for his office who had signed to request the recall referendum against the president will be fired.

In Secretary Capella’s estimation, having signed for the referendum is an act of conspiracy and terrorism, which is unacceptable.

When a journalist asked about the right of individuals to freely epxress their will, the Secretary answered that “to conspire is impossible, anywhere in the world, and if you want to do so anywhere in the world, you’ll see how you get freely fired. I propose for you to go to NASA and sign against the Bush government and state that you’re conspiring against the Bush government, and you will see whether you’ll stay at NASA or not.”

Caracas.- El ministro de Salud y Desarrollo Social, Roger Capella, advirtió que los empleados públicos adscritos a su despacho que hayan firmado para solicitar la realización del referendo revocatorio presidencial serán despedidos.

A juicio del ministro Capella haber firmado para solicitar la realización del referendo es un acto de conspiración y terrorismo, lo cual resulta inaceptable.

Al preguntarle una periodista sobre el derecho de las personas a expresar su voluntad libremente, el ministro respondió que "conspirar en ninguna parte del mundo es posible, y si usted quiere hágalo en cualquier otra parte del mundo y usted verá como queda libremente despedida. Yo le propongo a usted que en la NASA firme contra el Gobierno de Bush y declare que está conspirando contra el gobierno de Bush y usted verá si continúa o no continúa en la NASA".
A.L.

AL,

It backs up what Francisco Toro said in Caracas Chronicles in the post I linked to above. Unbelievable. Chávez and his minions put the ass in bombastic.

Congratulations to you and your bride, by the way. May life bring the two of you all the joy possible in the world.

There are much wider limits on authoritarian power in a developing nation provided the nation is developing.

Hati is not. Obviously there is a fundamental flaw.

My guess - with out any deep knowledge - is that the educational system is probably not delivering.

The other problem that they may be having is that they speak French. :-) What do I mean by that? French colonies do not seem to have the power to maintain themselves as well as former English colonies.

Now not all English colonies have turned out well (Rhodesia/Zimbabwe). But India and Even South Africa are finally pulling it together.

I put it down to a fundamental flaw in the French world view.

The only way to control inflation is to control the money supply. Your basic Chicago Boys prescription.

Initially it drives up unemployment. However if not controlled increases in the money supply (inflation) will destroy a whole economy. Think Germany 1933.

If you make the money supply grow faster than the real economy in an effort to help the poor you wind up hurting the poor.

There is only one way to help the poor. Get the economy growing. For this to happen the rich must be assured of positive returns on their investments. The greater the returns to the rich the faster the economy grows. Punishing the rich with high taxes or other confiscations is short sighted.

FWIW, I didn't mention anything about raising taxes.

But if you control the money supply so strictly that businesses cannot grow, you cannot grow the economy and you cannot increase employment.

What a truly sharp mind will do is find the balance between controlling the money supply to the point where inflation (which probably impacts the poor far more than the wealthy) is kept at a manageable level and meeting the needs of businesses who need affordable capital to expand.

I'm surprised to see no mention of France's role in Aristide's removal, which I suspect tipped the U.S. in the direction of forcing/getting him out. Aristide's initial exile was arranged by France's longtime ally in Central Africa, Gabonese President Omar Bongo.

More here.

Joel,

Tht's an important point, but unfortunately I've been able to find out very little regarding the French role beyond the fact that the French were the first non-haitians to call for Aristide to resign.

If the Caribbean Community (Caricom) had negotiated a power sharing arrangement, the US had approved it and Aristide had agreed to it, why did the US press for Aristide's departure when the opposition rejected the proposed agreement?

There is a fairly simple answer, though it's truth and wisdom can be disputed, I suppose. First, the opposition that rejected the proposed agreement rejected because they were winning. They were about to overrun the capital anyway-- for that reason they felt no need to accept a ceasefire and power sharing agreement.

Secondly, the rebels stated that they would be willing to accept a ceasefire, but only if Aristide were gone. (And they do indeed have reasons to distrust him, surely.)

If the power sharing agreement was agreed to by Aristide's side, but not the other, it wasn't much of an agreement, was it?

So the choice facing the US was either to throw military might behind sustaining Aristide's rule, and imposing this "agreement" upon the opposition which didn't agree to it, or to tell Aristide that the US would not militarily invade just to save him, and to attempt to negotiate a power sharing agreement that the opposition would agree to, without Aristide.

Note that if the US does nothing, then Aristide is forced out. Inaction causes him to go. Somehow inaction on the part of the US, not intervening, is transformed into forcing Aristide to leave.

This entire incident reminds one that the same people who criticize the US for shoring up and supporting dictators with questionable human rights records will criticize the US for failing to do so as well.

In my mind, Aristide's subsequent fixed election and human rights violations trump any legitimacy he might have hoped to have claimed.

Actually, John, I'm not criticizing the US for failing to support Aristide. I find it peculiar that rather than at least making an effort to continue negotiations, the Bush administration just gave up and walked away. I'm sure Caricom feels that they were sandbagged and I think that that aspect of the matter is troubling.

If the power sharing agreement was agreed to by Aristide's side, but not the other, it wasn't much of an agreement, was it?

Imagine the outcry if the US took that position in the Middle East. I think that you're presenting a false set of choices here. The alternative is to keep negotiating not to walk away. These things involve compromise on both sides.

As for the opposition, I don't see how you can't find this disturbing:

Mr. Latortue has no democratic mandate. Haitians are bitterly split between Aristide supporters and opponents, and both sides are heavily armed. Clearly, he needs to reach out to those on both sides of this divide who want to move their country forward. But Mr. Latortue aided neither national reconciliation nor his own shaky legitimacy by the unseemly ceremony he took part in last Saturday.

Ferried by American military helicopters to the city of Gonaďves, where the anti-Aristide revolt began, he stood on a stage with killers like Jean-Pierre Baptiste. Mr. Baptiste, who escaped from prison in 2002, is a death squad leader convicted of participating in a 1994 massacre of Aristide supporters.

Also welcoming Mr. Latortue to Gonaďves was Guy Philippe, the rebel military chief, who has yet to keep his promise to American commanders to disarm his fighters. While there, the prime minister unwisely paid tribute to Amiot Métayer, the murdered founder of the Cannibal Army, an initially pro-Aristide gang. In 2002, Mr. Métayer was jailed at the behest of the Organization of American States. Freed by his supporters the next month, he turned against President Aristide and was later murdered. Mr. Métayer's followers began the revolt that toppled the elected government.

Sure smells like past becoming prologue to me.

Leave a comment

Here are some quick tips for adding simple Textile formatting to your comments, though you can also use proper HTML tags:

*This* puts text in bold.

_This_ puts text in italics.

bq. This "bq." at the beginning of a paragraph, flush with the left hand side and with a space after it, is the code to indent one paragraph of text as a block quote.

To add a live URL, "Text to display":http://windsofchange.net/ (no spaces between) will show up as Text to display. Always use this for links - otherwise you will screw up the columns on our main blog page.




Recent Comments
  • TM Lutas: Jobs' formula was simple enough. Passionately care about your users, read more
  • sabinesgreenp.myopenid.com: Just seeing the green community in action makes me confident read more
  • Glen Wishard: Jobs was on the losing end of competition many times, read more
  • Chris M: Thanks for the great post, Joe ... linked it on read more
  • Joe Katzman: Collect them all! Though the French would be upset about read more
  • Glen Wishard: Now all the Saudis need is a division's worth of read more
  • mark buehner: Its one thing to accept the Iranians as an ally read more
  • J Aguilar: Saudis were around here (Spain) a year ago trying the read more
  • Fred: Good point, brutality didn't work terribly well for the Russians read more
  • mark buehner: Certainly plausible but there are plenty of examples of that read more
  • Fred: They have no need to project power but have the read more
  • mark buehner: Good stuff here. The only caveat is that a nuclear read more
  • Ian C.: OK... Here's the problem. Perceived relevance. When it was 'Weapons read more
  • Marcus Vitruvius: Chris, If there were some way to do all these read more
  • Chris M: Marcus Vitruvius, I'm surprised by your comments. You're quite right, read more
The Winds Crew
Town Founder: Left-Hand Man: Other Winds Marshals
  • 'AMac', aka. Marshal Festus (AMac@...)
  • Robin "Straight Shooter" Burk
  • 'Cicero', aka. The Quiet Man (cicero@...)
  • David Blue (david.blue@...)
  • 'Lewy14', aka. Marshal Leroy (lewy14@...)
  • 'Nortius Maximus', aka. Big Tuna (nortius.maximus@...)
Other Regulars Semi-Active: Posting Affiliates Emeritus:
Winds Blogroll
Author Archives
Categories
Powered by Movable Type 4.23-en