Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.
TOP TOPIC
- Haiti remains in the news as the aftermath of Aristide's departure leaves some unanswered questions and a rift between the US and Caricom.
Other Topics Include: Hugo Chávez continues to rail against his foes (real and imagined) and presume he has friends where he, in fact, doesn't; Interesting news from several Central American countries; Brazil's financial worries after its worst economic performance in 11 years; Cuba reaches a disgraceful anniversary; An exciting and comprehensive introductory series of books on Latin America.
HAITI
- Was Aristide pushed? Obviously it depends upon who you talk to. The former president and his supporters, to no one's surprise say yes. The Bush administration and its supporters, also to no one's surprise say no. The truth, as it usually does, probably lies somewhere in the middle. An American security guard who served as one of Aristide's bodyguards contends that Aristide was duped by US authorities, which squares with Aristide's account. Personnel at the US Embassy in Port-au-Prince contend that Aristide left on his own and willingly. Given the increasing violence prior to his departure, one could make an argument that Aristide's choice was Hobson's Choice.
- If the Caribbean Community (Caricom) had negotiated a power sharing arrangement, the US had approved it and Aristide had agreed to it, why did the US press for Aristide's departure when the opposition rejected the proposed agreement? This is really vexing and has probably troubled me the most. Regardless of how one feels about this particular instance, I don't think it bodes well for subsequent diplomatic initiatives in the Americas. It is puzzling to me when one side in a dispute accepts the terms, the other side doesn't and rather than mediate further, the side that accepted the terms is pressured to capitulate. According to one of the articles cited above, the "move was prompted, aides said, by unexpected progress of anti-Aristide militias." Marcela Sanchez makes a compelling argument that the dispute in Washington is not doing Haiti any good.
- The Caricom nations have refused to participate in any peacekeeping force in Haiti and, the rift between Haiti and its closest neighbors was widened with the arrival of Aristide in Jamaica, although the Caricom nations have asked Nigeria to grant Aristide asylum and the African nation has agreed. Perhaps Aristide and Charles Taylor can learn to play golf or help in the training of Nigeria's formidable national soccer team, the Super Eagles. I think that there time might be better used on reflecting on the limits of authoritarian power in developing nations . . . [Update: Aristide has declined Nigeria's offer]
- As for the future of Haiti, new Justice Minister, Bernard Gousse, is calling for criminal charges against Aristide, although perhaps justice delayed needs to be addressed first. In any event, new Prime Minister Gerard Latortue should consider how his apparent embrace of the violent opposition will only exacerbate divisions in Haiti.
VENEZUELA
- Hugo Chávez continues to decompensate and blame anyone and everyone other than his imperious and divisive rule for Venezuela's problems. After threatening to cut off oil supplies to the US, he has backed down, perhaps after he realized that might entail closing all Citgo stations and driving Venezuela's economy deeper into red ink.
- Meanwhile, whither the recall referendum on Chávez? Who knows? The Supreme Court's Electoral Chamber ruled that the 876,000 disallowed signatures must be included unless the individuals disclaim them. Credible allegations of retaliations against public employees for participating in the recall continue and the time for holding the election is shrinking.
- Chávez's Foreign Minister, Jesus Perez indicated that if President Bush were not reelected, that US-Venezuelan relations would improve. Senator Kerry quickly and unequivocally disabused Perez of this notion with a firm criticism of Chávez's rule, stating among other things, that Chávez has "repeatedly undermined democratic institutions by using extra-legal means, including politically motivated incarcerations, to consolidate power." Be careful what you wish for . . .
- Finally, in the bad news column for Chávez, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has released its report(available in HTML format here or as a PDF file here). I haven't had a chance to read it in detail, but the section on the Bolivarian Circles is disturbing.
CENTRAL AMERICA
- First, El Salvador. Antonio Saca of the right-wing ARENA party appears to have won the presidential election, beating Shafik Handal of the left-wing FMLN, a man almost twice his age. Expect a continuation of the same sort of rule under outgoing President Flores.
- In Nicarauga, ex-president Arnoldo Alemán has been forcibly moved from house arrest where he was being held for health reasons to a regular prison. Alemán was convicted of diverting some $100 million in government funds (in this the second poorest country in the Americas) to his party and his pocket. After being sentenced to 20 years in jail and fined $10 million, he now faces hard time. If you look at him, though, being on prison rations might save his life.
- Good news from Guatemala as new president, Oscar Berger announced his intent to reduce his nation's army by 50%. The Guatemalan Army has been riddled with corruption for a number of years and has been linked to drug dealers and death squads. It won't be missed.
- Although former Panamian dictator, Manuel Noriega was denied parole recently, I think that he should be paroled and retrned to Panama. Perhaps he can finally answer for the murder of Hugo Spadafora.
BRAZIL
- Nothing is as worrisome in Brazil as inflation. It has been especially brutal on the poor, and with a president devoted to helping the poorest of the poor, keeping inflation under control in Brazil has been a major priority since Lula took control of the Palácio do Planalto.
- The preferred method to fight inflation in Brazil for the past several years has focused on high interest rates. While inflation has been kept much lower than n the 1980's, the interest rates have stifled growth and made it extremely difficult to develop new business and for current businesses to expand. The crux of the issue seems to be a disconnect between the banking sector and the manufacturing sector.
- With an overnight rate of 16.5% (imagine the panic if that were the best ratee in the US) and dubious claims of the economy overheating (following a year in which it actually shrank.2%), made worse by a weak dollar (a rare complaint in Brazil) one wonders who will have the president's ear in this battle: the bankers, the manufacturers or the unemployed, who might be willing to live with a little increase in inflation - provided they have an income.
CUBA
- Last week marked the first anniversary of the arrest of the 75 dissidents by the Castro regime. Human Rights Watch along with several other human rights organizations issued a joint statement condemning the arrests and calling for the release of the dissidents.
- Of course Castro did not expect the arrests to unify the family members of these freedom fighters whose only weapons are words and justice, nor did he expect condemnation from unexpected corners for his acts as previously imprisoned dissident Vladimiro Roca pointed out. Everyone who cares about freedom and justice must not let these brave souls be forgotten.
BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS
- Duke University Press has just issued the fifth book in a terrific series of "Readers" on specific countries in Latin America. These are very comprehensive anthologies of writings of many aspects of Latin American culture, politics and history and make for a great introuduction to each country. They have volumes about Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Mexico and have just released one on Cuba. I hope further volumes of all the countries are on their way. I'd especially like to see Chile, Colombia and Venezuela.
The next installment of Randinho's Latin America Briefing will be April 28. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Latin American events can be found at Beautiful Horizons.








AL,
It backs up what Francisco Toro said in Caracas Chronicles in the post I linked to above. Unbelievable. Chávez and his minions put the ass in bombastic.
Congratulations to you and your bride, by the way. May life bring the two of you all the joy possible in the world.
There are much wider limits on authoritarian power in a developing nation provided the nation is developing.
Hati is not. Obviously there is a fundamental flaw.
My guess - with out any deep knowledge - is that the educational system is probably not delivering.
The other problem that they may be having is that they speak French. :-) What do I mean by that? French colonies do not seem to have the power to maintain themselves as well as former English colonies.
Now not all English colonies have turned out well (Rhodesia/Zimbabwe). But India and Even South Africa are finally pulling it together.
I put it down to a fundamental flaw in the French world view.
The only way to control inflation is to control the money supply. Your basic Chicago Boys prescription.
Initially it drives up unemployment. However if not controlled increases in the money supply (inflation) will destroy a whole economy. Think Germany 1933.
If you make the money supply grow faster than the real economy in an effort to help the poor you wind up hurting the poor.
There is only one way to help the poor. Get the economy growing. For this to happen the rich must be assured of positive returns on their investments. The greater the returns to the rich the faster the economy grows. Punishing the rich with high taxes or other confiscations is short sighted.
FWIW, I didn't mention anything about raising taxes.
But if you control the money supply so strictly that businesses cannot grow, you cannot grow the economy and you cannot increase employment.
What a truly sharp mind will do is find the balance between controlling the money supply to the point where inflation (which probably impacts the poor far more than the wealthy) is kept at a manageable level and meeting the needs of businesses who need affordable capital to expand.
I'm surprised to see no mention of France's role in Aristide's removal, which I suspect tipped the U.S. in the direction of forcing/getting him out. Aristide's initial exile was arranged by France's longtime ally in Central Africa, Gabonese President Omar Bongo.
More here.
Joel,
Tht's an important point, but unfortunately I've been able to find out very little regarding the French role beyond the fact that the French were the first non-haitians to call for Aristide to resign.
If the Caribbean Community (Caricom) had negotiated a power sharing arrangement, the US had approved it and Aristide had agreed to it, why did the US press for Aristide's departure when the opposition rejected the proposed agreement?
There is a fairly simple answer, though it's truth and wisdom can be disputed, I suppose. First, the opposition that rejected the proposed agreement rejected because they were winning. They were about to overrun the capital anyway-- for that reason they felt no need to accept a ceasefire and power sharing agreement.
Secondly, the rebels stated that they would be willing to accept a ceasefire, but only if Aristide were gone. (And they do indeed have reasons to distrust him, surely.)
If the power sharing agreement was agreed to by Aristide's side, but not the other, it wasn't much of an agreement, was it?
So the choice facing the US was either to throw military might behind sustaining Aristide's rule, and imposing this "agreement" upon the opposition which didn't agree to it, or to tell Aristide that the US would not militarily invade just to save him, and to attempt to negotiate a power sharing agreement that the opposition would agree to, without Aristide.
Note that if the US does nothing, then Aristide is forced out. Inaction causes him to go. Somehow inaction on the part of the US, not intervening, is transformed into forcing Aristide to leave.
This entire incident reminds one that the same people who criticize the US for shoring up and supporting dictators with questionable human rights records will criticize the US for failing to do so as well.
In my mind, Aristide's subsequent fixed election and human rights violations trump any legitimacy he might have hoped to have claimed.
Actually, John, I'm not criticizing the US for failing to support Aristide. I find it peculiar that rather than at least making an effort to continue negotiations, the Bush administration just gave up and walked away. I'm sure Caricom feels that they were sandbagged and I think that that aspect of the matter is troubling.
If the power sharing agreement was agreed to by Aristide's side, but not the other, it wasn't much of an agreement, was it?
Imagine the outcry if the US took that position in the Middle East. I think that you're presenting a false set of choices here. The alternative is to keep negotiating not to walk away. These things involve compromise on both sides.
As for the opposition, I don't see how you can't find this disturbing:
Sure smells like past becoming prologue to me.