BRAZIL

• Fresh from the preliminary victory in the World Trade Organization on cotton subsidies to US farmers, Lula visited China this month to explore trade opportunities.

• China is an excellent market for Brazil. With building on the rise in China, Brazilian steel will be in heavy demand, to the point that China will be constructing a steel mill with the Brazilian iron mining and steel producing giant, Companhia Vale do Rio Doce in the northeastern city of São Luis within a few days voyage of the Panama Canal.

• Brazil is extraordinarily rich in iron ore. I spend much of my time when I visit Brazil in the state of Minas Gerais (General Mines in Portuguese) and am constantly awed by the trains filled with freshly mined iron that seem to extend for miles and the hillsides so full of iron in places that they shimmer in the sunlight. Brazil is also a major producer of soybeans and soy products will play a major role in the trade relationship as will plans for joint ventures in oil exploration for the two countries. This relationship is indicative of Lula's desire to forge trade alliances that look toward partnerships other than the traditional ones (i.e. US-Latin America)

• Unfortunately, Lula needs to learn to recognize how to respond to sloppy writing and bad press. The recent attempt to cancel the visa of New York Times reporter, Larry Rohter for a sloppy and poorly sourced story alleging that Lula had a drinking problem, ended up backfiring when calls from the Brazilian Bar Association, Human Rights Watch and even members of his own party forced both sides into an orgy of face-saving. A few words of advice: it's a fine line between victim and victimizer. It's always best to keep a cool head.

CUBA

• The Bush administration has unveiled a new policy toward bringing democracy to Cuba in a nearly 500 page document, but it has met with decidedly mixed reviews from both the exile community in Florida and dissidents on the island itself. I haven't had a chance to read the entire document, but some of the plan highlights are here.

• Some exiles feel that the policy will backfire against President Bush. Leading dissident Oswaldo Payá said "this new package of [U.S.] measures once again shifts the center of attention toward a confrontation between the Cuban government and the United States. Now there will be an avalanche of news in the government media about this new confrontation stemming from the latest U.S. measures. It's Cuba versus the United States, all over again . . . Those who led this [Cuba Commission report] looked into their own needs, rather than those of Cuba and the peaceful opposition movement." Even one of Colin Powell's aides referred to the policy as the "dumbest policy on the face of the Earth."

• A positive development did take place earlier this month, however, when the governments of Peru and Mexico recalled their ambassadors to Cuba in response to Cuba's condemnation of these countries for supporting a UN resolution criticizing Cuba's human rights record. This is what is needed; more criticism and condemnation from Latin America and every effort to be made to keep this from being framed by Castro as a US-Cuba dispute.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

• Leonel Fernandez was elected president of the Dominican Republic ten days ago, a job he held from 1996 to 2000 and lost to Hipolito Mejía amid solid allegations of corruption and bribery.

• Unfortunately, Mejía's rule was marked by a crushing economic downturn, exacerbated by the failure of the country's third largest bank. The question now is whether Fernandez has learned his lesson and cleaned up his act to the point where he can turn the country around. The Council on Hemispheric Affairs has a good analysis of the former and current leaders' records.

HONDURAS

• For the second time in 14 months, a horrific fire has claimed lives in an overcrowded Honduran prison. 103 prisoners died in a prison designed to hold 800, but actually held 1,960.

• The major reason for the overcrowding is a crackdown on gang membership in Central America. As The Economist reports in this article, gang membership in and of itself is a criminal offense in Honduras as well as El Salvador and the distinctive tattoos are a ticket to jail.

• The Economist article also puts forth the argument that many of these gangs were developed from expatriate experiences in the United States, Los Angeles in particular. This is certainly not a new argument, twelve years ago while traveling in Central America, I was told in Belize that one of the greatest exports from the expat community were freshly minted members of the Crips and Bloods. This is truly upsetting. The last thing countries like Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua need after the misery of the 1980's in Central America are violent criminal gangs.

VENEZUELA

• The snail-like pace of the move towards a possible referendum in Venezuela slides slowlys forward. After efforts recently to limit the role of the Carter Center and the OAS in monitoring the disputed referendum signatures, these groups have seemed to come to agreement with the CNE, the National Electoral Council. The CNE has ruled that the opposition has submitted 1.9 million valid signatures, with 2.4 million needed for the referendum. The opposition gets the chance later this week for four days to review the disputed signatures in an effort to validate them.

• Chavez, meanwhile, is convinced he will win and turn the country over to someone just like him. God help Venezuela!

• Meanwhile, Marcela Sánchez notes that it appears the Bush administration is seeking to possibly take a more proactive role in confronting Chávez. I agree with her when she says "The demise of the referendum would obviously be bad news for Venezuela. But any U.S. unilateral intervention would be worse news for the region." If Chávez is able to paint this as a US-Chávez confrontation, he'll only be strengthened. This is a really bad idea - no matter how much oil Venezuela has.

• To keep up with some of the events on the ground in Venezuela, check out the blogs Caracas Chronicles and The Devil's Excrement.

CHILE

• Chile is arguably Latin America's most socially conservative country. Divorce has just become legal this month and the influence of the Roman Catholic Church is quite profound.

• That makes it all the more interesting that the most popular politician in Chile right now is Dr. Michelle Bachelet, Chile's Defense Minister. Even though she has not announced for next year's presidential election, she has been leading the polls recently, just ahead of another woman politician from the same Concertacion alliance, Soledad Alvear, Chile's Foreign Minister. Bachelet's life story is fascinating and embodies the concept that living well is the best revenge. Will Alvear or Bachelet be elected Chile's first woman president? Stay tuned.

The next installment of Randinho's Latin America Briefing will be June 23. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Latin American events can be found at Beautiful Horizons.