Robin's Winds of War: 2003-12-15

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report. Today's briefings are brought to you by guest blogger Robin Burk. Note that these entries are a private effort, and do not represent the official position of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

TOP TOPICS

• Are we at the tipping point in the War on Terror? Victor Davis Hanson thinks we may be at that point in Iraq, at least. And he wrote that before they captured Saddam!

• The military success that VDH cites is due in large part to the strong professionalism of the US armed forces, who have stayed the course to patiently dismantle militant networks, extract intelligence and fight back when attacked. That applies to our reservists and National Guard as well, as this first-hand account of October's Battle of the Boneyard outside Kabul last October shows.

Other Topics Today Include: Why Gitmo is so important; the UN prepares to leave Afghanistan; Assasination attempt on Musharraf; Iran's nuclear program; IAEA ineffective; Another Canadian al-Qaeda; Chaplain Yee; JI in Indonesia; Venezuela; expanding the U.S. military; Saddam - riches to rags.

AFGHAN-PAKISTAN THEATER REPORTS

• Anyone wondering why the US chose to hold illegal combatants at Guantanamo might want to read this. A Taliban commander held at Gitmo and released by US authorities in July is now back in Afghanistan in charge of attacks against US forces there, according to a report released Sunday.

• Despite reports that the Afghanistan consitutional assembly would be postponed again due to threats from armed Islamacist groups and the polarization between conservatives and reformers, the delegates to the loya jurga opened deliberations on Sunday. US commanders warned that Taliban forces were planning attacks to disrupt and intimidate the proceedings, and US and Afghan forces were heavily deployed around the area.

• The Afghani delegates are demonstrating courage and tenacity but, predictably, the UN is getting ready to pull out due to the recent attacks by Talibanis. For an organization that wants to run things, they sure don't have much sticking power.

• Calling it as it is: Richard Haass, a former senior official at the State Department and currently head of the American Council on Foreign Policy told Tom Brokaw of NBC that Pakistan is the most dangerous country in the region, citing the bomb attempt on President Pervez Musharraf's motorcade close to Islamabad on Sunday. Haass said Pakistan was dangerous because it had nuclear weapons, and a military government which was not entirely in control of the country.

IRAN REPORTS

• The Iranian Students at Daneshjoo aren't thrilled with Nobel Winner Shirin Ebadi (Hat Tip: M. Simon).

• Charles says the IAEA is on Iran's side. Fuirthermorem, "Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has not been able to conclude that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, although he says that if they ever do, the IAEA might be able to detect it. In any case, he's going to need a lot more time to decide whether there's really anything going on in Iran."

• On the other hand, ElBaradei has no hesitation at all declaring that Israel has nuclear weapons (even though this has never been admitted by Israel or conclusively proven by anyone else), and demanding that they immediately disarm, for the sake of Mideast peace El Baradei: Israel should disarm nuclear weapons.

What hypocrisy.

U.S.HOMELAND SECURITY

• Cleaning up the ant nests of terror cells takes patience and commitment. Many Americans are beginning to doubt that our northern neighbor with that long, undefended border has that commitment. Trent Telenko notes that another Canadian was arrested in the US on charges of associating with al-Qaeda. Mohammed A. Warsame, who was taken into custody on Tuesday on a material witness warrant, has been tied to Zacarias Moussaoui, the suspected al-Qaeda member who faces trial in Virginia on conspiracy charges in the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington.

• On the other hand, the Chaplain James Yee case, noted in this blog, appears to be falling apart.

THE WIDER WAR

• JK: More on the growing tactical alliance between neo-Marxists, neo-Nazis, and Islamists that's taking shape around the world. The phenomenon is being noticed in Foreign Policy Magazine now.

• Momentum in Iraq has major implications for the wider War on Terror. Above all, terrorists seek to destroy the will and resolve of their enemies. What is happening in Iraq, symbolized by our patient, professional pursuit and capture of Saddam Hussein will have ripple effects elsewhere. Austin Bay agrees.

• At least one Jemaah Islamiah (JI) manual on terror tactics has been sold off the shelf in Indonesia. The manual shows that the group is well-organized and urges members to attack anyone who subscribes to Western ideology and to engage in guerilla warfare. Among the advice it dishes out: The best position to attack an army truck is usually when it is turning around a corner, and C4 explosives should be used to make bombs deadlier.

• Other JI guidebooks exist and some probably still being written. In the months following last year's Bali bombings, Indonesian security officials seized copies of JI's Constitution, known by its acronym Pupji, and a bomb-making manual written by leader Azahari Husin. In July, they also uncovered the 'Semarang documents' - a set of Arabic manuscripts that is a warfare and bomb-making manual - during a raid in Semarang, Central Java

• Don't forget major OPEC player and supporter of the FARC narco-terrorists President Hugo Chavez of venezuela. The situation in Venezuela continue to develop.

• Meanwhile, 54 of the 61 members of the House Armed Services Committee, joined by the top Republican and Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee,
  have sent President Bush a letter urging him to expand the U.S. combat force. The letter also asks Bush to reassess the ratio between active and reserve forces used in long deployments. For that to happen, the deliberate post-Vietnam crippling of our active duty service components, by pushing key functions into the Reserves, has to be undone, however. More troops won't be a quick fix, either: it takes time and money to train them to the level of professionalism we need and right now that would distract us from the operations we're currently pursuing. Bases, weapons and support systems would need to be expanded as well. No magic wands here to undo over a decade of deliberate neglect, guys. (Hat Tip: Team Agonist)

• We try to close on a lighter note if possible. Check out Rand Simberg's classic "riches to rags" photo of Saddam for a chuckle. Sic Semper Tyrannis!

Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.