Winds of Change.NET: Robin's Winds of War: 2004-01-26

January 26, 2004

Robin's Winds of War: 2004-01-26

by Robin Burk at January 26, 2004 5:08 AM

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday.

Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Robin Burk. These reports are a reflection of private research & opinions only, and are not be construed in any way as official releases or opinions of the U.S. Military Academy.

TOP TOPICS

Robin discussed David Kay's interview in the Comments section.

The threat of nuclear proliferation, especially to non-state entities (such as Islamacist terror networks) is serious and growing. Libya's decision to renounce WMD programs has blown the cover off of a black market in nuclear technologies.The head of the IAEA, Mohammed elBaradai, says that illicit trafficking of nuclear-related material and equipment has grown so widespread that it amounts to a Wal-Mart for weapons-seeking countries.

The IAEA has acquiesced to a continued US role in dismantling Libya's programs; key equipment and materials are already being prepared for shipment to the US for safekeeping. A Congressional delegation visted Tripoli by invitation this weekend.

Pakistani president Musharaf admits that nuclear technology was exported from Pakistan, but he denies it was done with government approval. Nuclear scientists and engineers are forbidden to leave Pakistan while the matter is under investigation; demonstrators protested investigation of "the father of the Islamic bomb" Abdul Qadeer Khan. Musharaf pointedly also suggested Europeans also be investigated for their role in nuclear proliferation.

Other Topics Today Include: Blair, Straw defend the decision to invade Iraq; Iraqi WMD in Syria?; Iraqi Marines; power struggle in Iran; prisoner swap in ME; Israel & her neighbours; al Qaeda supporter indicted in US; China and France get together; German armed forces restructure.

IRAQ REPORT

At the World Economic Forum, UK foreign minister Jack Straw eloquently defended the decision to invade Iraq. Tony Blair, ahead of the Hutton report on David Kelly's death, firmly stated he has "absolutely no doubt" the intelligence about Iraqi WMD that prompted the invasion was genuine.

Powell acknowledged we may not find WMD in Iraq. Meanwhile, David Kay turned over leadership of the Iraq Survey Group, then said that while he doubted Iraqi WMD would be found in large quantities, he had uncovered evidence that certain WMD-related materials were moved to Syria in the weeks before the Coalition invaded.

MAJ Gen Odierno, commander of the 4th ID, say the US Army has brought Sadaam loyalists "to their knees&quot.

His boss, LT Gen Sanchez says there are signs of increased cooperation between al Qaeda and the Baathist remnants. However, an al Qaeda magazine has reportedly urged jihadis to leave Iraq and fight the US elsewhere because the large number of Muslim deaths from their attacks have created a backlash.

A new Iraqi battalion completed training last week, including the first company of a new Coastal Defence Force patterned on the US Marines.

As religious leaders push to base Iraqi law on sharia, the role and status of women in Iraq threatens to retrograde significantly. Zayed of Healing Iraq has some comments on this. Don't miss his post on a recent survey showing Iraqi top priorities as their country and society are reconstructed. 74% of respondents say the Coalition presence is necessary and 61% say that Coalition forces attitudes towards Iraqis are "cordial".

Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker."

The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops: American, Australian, British, Canadian & Polish [updated Jan. 15, 2004]

Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive!

IRAN UPDATE

The IAEA warned Iran of "serious consequences" if it did not cooperate with a probe into its nuclear program. The mullah's stalling game continues, however. Meanwhile, Iran and the EU are cementing closer ties.

Iran announced the start of production for its new R'ad missile and DM-3B radar system.

The battle for political control between hardliners and moderates continues. An emergency session of parliament voted to overturn the disqualification by clerics of hundreds of candidates for next month's elections, but the Guardian Council reportedly has vetoed the measure.

Amir Taheri, on the other hand, points out that there is no meaningful distinction between the moderates and hardliners in terms of their policy aims. He says it's more like a feud among insiders for the spoils. (Hat Tip: Blog Iran!)

ISRAEL AND HER NEIGHBORS

Sharon agreed to a prisoner exchange with Hizbollah, but Nasrallah proclaimed that kidnappings of IDF members will continue, The complex deal was negotiated by German mediators. (hat tip: lgf)

Jordan's foreign minister calls on Arab states to denounce suicide bombings.

Yassir Arafat's wife has been granted French citizenship, raising speculation that Arafat may receive a French passport as a result.

2/3 of Americans polled say that Palestinians have not fulfilled their obligations as agreed and therefore do not deserve their own state at this time. (hat tip: Europundit Nelson Ascher)

HOMELAND SECURITY

A federal grand jury indicted a Minnesota man for conspiracy to provide material support for al Qaeda. Mohammed Abdullah Warsame, a Canadian citizen of Somali descent, trained in Afghan camps during 2000 and 2001, when bin Laden was the area.

The Iranian-American Society of Northern Virginia is holding a "solidarity" fund-raiser for survivors of the Bam earthquake in Iran, but Rep. Robert Ney, R-Ohio, has asked Attorney General John Ashcroft to investigate whether some of the event's sponsors are tied to Mujahedin-e Khalq, the MEK, or People's Mujaheddin, a known terrorist group which was supported by Saddam's regime.

The US and Saudi Arabia announced a joint effort to crack down on four branches of the huge Saudi-based charity Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation, charging that its offices in Africa and Asia are being used to funnel money, arms and personnel to al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations.

THE WIDER WAR

Are we at war? Armed Liberal thinks so, but just to be sure he re-examines the issue.

Malaysia is host to factories creating precision centrifuges and other equipment for the nuclear black market. The country has agreed to work with the US to stop the flow of nuclear technology after its role in supplying Libya was uncovered.

Three Thai Buddhist monks were killed by Muslims in two days.

Police in Pakistan have arrested a former Taliban governor, Maulvi Abdul Mannan Khawajazai.

A Jewish school bus was set on fire in France.France considers outlawing beards as well as headscarves, crosses and skullcaps. Much easier than addressing the real issues, I guess.

A huge proposed mosque in Germany is being funded by Islamacist radicals. with links to terror groups, according to federal investigators in Berlin.

The President of China is about to visit Paris and the French are rolling out a year-long celebration of French/Chinese ties. Both France and Germany hope to sell weapons systems to China, whom the French hope will provide an alternative to US power.

As Britain considers whether to mothball some of its older destroyers, the Guardian suggests it might be better to do without a navy at all - that way, the UK couldn't be asked to join the US in future operations. And besides, big surface ships are really only needed for operations away from Britain's shores and why on earth would the need ever arise for that? Lord Nelson would be rolling in his grave, if he were the type to read the Guardian. Not likely he would have been, though.

Germany is restructuring its armed forces for peacekeeping roles. Martin Walker notes that this means Germany will need to rely on its allies for serious defense against armed threats. Will that ally be the US and NATO, I wonder, or the proposed EU defense force? The answer is clear, at least for the immediate future. (hat tip: Regions of Mind)

We try to close on a lighter note if possible. A maintenance worker on Long Island turned in $12,400 left behind by Brinks when an ATM was serviced. It's good to know that there are honest people living in our communities.

Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think womething important, use the Comments section to let us know.

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Tracked: January 26, 2004 11:34 PM

Parsimonious Albion from Low Earth Orbit

Excerpt: [source, source] If the cuts were made, it was reported gravely by the papers that carried the story, the Royal...

Comments

#1 from rkb at 4:25 pm on Jan 26, 2004

I hadn't read the details of David Kay's NPR interview before sending in this report but since it's all over the blogosphere & mass media today, I thought I should add to my brief comments above.

Kay gave a nuanced account that is damning in details but also more balanced than the TV spots or newspaper headlines suggest. NO, it appears unlikely there were quantities of WMD in place. But YES, there were ongoing programs right up until the beginning of the war: at a minimum, to weaponize ricin & to restart a nuclear program in order to arm missiles they were beginning to acquire.

Kay paints a picture of an Iraq weapons program that had spiralled into chaos and corruption. This scares me even more than a Saddam who was firmly in touch with reality and in control did. Those who have no effective oversight and who are motivated by money are likely to have no scruples about the intentions of those to whom they sell botulin or ricin or centrifuge parts or semi-processed uranium. Ansar al-Islam, the al Qaeda affiliate whose camps showed traces of ricin when we overran them, is an example of the real danger of Iraq under Saddam to the civilized world.

One last point. Kay notes that the extensive looting dispersed information and perhaps materials for good. While I generally believe Donald Rumsfeld has brought some very important insights and reforms as SecDef, we have been and will continue to pay heavily for a strategy that was not geared to prevent this (intentional, on the part of Baathist) looting as major combat wound down. The lack of clear answers to some WMD questions hinders our ability to keep international focus on the real and continuing threat that WMD materials will find their way into terrorist hands.

#2 from Sparkey at 2:14 am on Jan 27, 2004

I bought the transcript of the David Kay interview off the NPR website.

Mr. DAVID KAY (Former UN Weapons Inspector in Iraq): Well, I think what we reported in October and what the president actually cited in the State of the Union address are the most important things we found. We found that the Iraqi government, particularly Saddam Hussein and his senior leadership, had an intention to continue to pursue their WMD activities; that they, in fact, had a large number of WMD program-related activities. Now it's also important what we have not found. We have not yet found actual weapons and certainly not large stockpiles of weapons. So there was a WMD program. It was going ahead. It was rudimentary in many areas--for example, the nuclear area. But it continued without, though, actual stockpiles of weapons.

...

Mr. KAY: Well, Liane, I think this is one of the questions the American public and politicians are going to have to grapple with. `Imminent' depends--it's a risk assessment. How risky are you to run? And in the shadowing effect of 9/11, it seems to me that you recalculate what risk. Based on the intelligence that existed, I think it was reasonable to reach the conclusion that Iraq posed an imminent threat. Now that you know reality on the ground as opposed to what you estimated before, you may reach a different conclusion, although I must say I actually think what we learned during the inspection made Iraq a more dangerous place, potentially, than, in fact, we thought it was even before the war.

Emphasis added...

More to come later...

#3 from murdoc at 2:23 pm on Jan 27, 2004

For a nifty graphic that summarizes the reality of our unilateral �go-it-alone� policy (so eloquently noted by Nancy Pelosi last week), check out *http://www.murdoconline.net/archives/000936.html*.