Robi's S. Asia Briefing: 2004-05-07

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

MORE MUSHARRAF DEALS

• General Musharraf faces a particular constraint as Pakistan's President - as chief of army he is constitutionally forbidden from holding the post of President. As the position of army chief holds considerable influence he is reluctant to let go; even at the risk of unraveling a deal he struck with the Islamic undamentalist alliance under which he was to 'shed his uniform' by the end of 2005. Musharraf is now engaged in political re-engineering [video] that many observers feel will involve him becoming the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League, faction-ridden political party founded by Pakistan's founder. While Pakistan's progress towards democracy is at best marginal, both the European Union and the Commonwealth are moving towards legitimizing Musharraf's regime.

• Meanwhile the Pakistani army made a deal with Al Qaeda supporters in its South Waziristan region in a step which showed Musharraf's limitations in the war on terror. More than 78 militants arrested in this year's "hammer and anvil" spring offensive were released in return for the surrender of 5 key Al Qaeda Taliban supporters, who were also granted amnesty. Nek Mohammad, who had trained and fought with the Taliban in Afghanistan remains unrepentant. The Pashtun tribesmen seem to have defeated yet another army.

• Pakistan recently complained about a slight border incursion by US troops chasing elements of Al Queda and the Taliban. Showing again its weakness as a key alley in the war on terror Pakistan has refused to kill or capture foreign militants on the border of Afghanistan. It is hard to understand why the US has made Pakistan a Non-Nato Major Ally (NNMA).

• If you would like to learn more about Pakistan's government and political structure you should read Patrick Belton's excellent analysis at Winds Of Change. Links to all 3 parts of his special report can be found here.

Other Topics Today Include: India's all electronic elections; non-proliferation resolutions; Shifting Alliances; Lashkar-e-Taiba in Oz; Pakistan and India; Nepal in chaos; Bangladesh's internal woes; Terror in Thailand.

NO DIMPLED CHADS

• More than 600 million voters in India are voting in the world's largest, all electronic elections. Early exit polls predict that Prime Minister Vajpayee's ruling BJP may not do as well as expected, dealing a potential blow to economic reform agenda. While there is bipartisan consensus with regard to improving relations with the United States, China and Pakistan and also on economic reforms, a change in government or a hung parliament may slow things down a bit.

NON-PROLIFERATION: TRY ABSTINENCE

• After initially leading the protest against a new UN resolution forbidding the transfer of weapons of mass destruction to non-state actors such as terrorists, Pakistan ended up voting in its favor. But not before ensuring that the resolution was not retrospective (allowing Dr Khan's nuclear ring to escape punishment) and diluting the provisions such that errant nations get nothing more than a slap on the wrist. However, being under Chapter VII of the UN charter, the Security Council has kept the doors open to future enforcement action. Just like how Pakistan was able to subvert laws designed to prevent it from going nuclear in the 1970s and 80s due to its crucial role in the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan, it has managed to use its frontline role in the war on terror to escape punishment for its role in selling nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

SHIFTING ALLIANCES

• Last month we talked about China's sale to Pakistan of a new nuclear reactor. China has helped finance the sale of the latest nuclear reactor by loaning Pakistan approximately 350 million dollars further strengthen the ties between the two nations.

• China has also been helping Pakistan build and fund a new port in Gawdar which would help provide trade access to for Pakistan as well as Afghanistan and other land locked Central Asian counties. May third a car bomb killed three Chinese men working on the project. Pakistan has moved quickly to make arrests detaining 17 suspects. China has urged Pakistan to try to assure the safety of its workers and has a great interest in Pakistan becoming a more stable country seeing Pakistan's potential for economic growth as a way to offset its own emerging economic problems.

• China has also been playing nice nice with India recently acknowledging that Sikkim is officially part of India . Why this is important is India and China fought a war in 1962, where India was defeated, over the border between China and India and has been a major sore point between the two countries. China has recently been making a series of conciliatory gestures as well as military and trade agreements with India perhaps because several reports suggest India's economy will soon overtake China's and India is becoming a major trading partner for China.

• China and India are natural competitors as well as military rivals. Indeed much of India's nuclear arsenal was developed to as a deterrent to China but money and need make strange bedfellows where even seemingly the most unlikely countries may work together towards there own personnel advantage.

PAKISTAN AND INDA

• While this article form the BBC talks about the peaceful back drop of relations between Pakistan and India anyone who is paying attention can see this is not the case. It seems as if elements of Pakistan's IIS and Islamic militants are biding there time to unleash a new series of attacks in the Kashmir. Recently in Kashmir the Indian Army killed seven terrorists including Abdul Rashid who was recently appointed as the head of Hezb-ul-Mujahdeen.

• Pakistan also has a host of internal problems which further increases the odds of an internal crisis which probably prompted the bombing in Gawdar.

• While the media focuses on US abuse of Iraq prisoners a new story is emerging that ex-Indian soldiers who have been lured to Iraq to provide security have been mistreated.

LASHKAR-E-TAIBA'S FOOTPRINTS

• Although the US State Department retained Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) on the list of foreign terrorist organizations, its chief Hafiz Mohammad Saeed made public appearances in Pakistan ranting against elections in Indian Kashmir and proclaiming that jihad is the only roadmap.

• Recently the LeT has been linked to the attempted attack on a NATO meeting in Turkey which George W. Bush planned to attend. The terrorists who planned the attack where apparently trained in Pakistan.

• Australia is the latest to be worried about Lashkar-e-Taiba after a Pakistani medical student was arrested in connection with terrorist plot. In another case, five brothers from a Pakistani family were arrested for the violent gang-rape and killing of two teenagers.

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA

• Nepal continues to be caught in a three-cornered contest between an dogmatic King, discredited politicians and a violent Maoist terrorist group, as the economy reels after several continuous days of protests. India, China and the United States are all aligned in trying to restore stability in this Himalayan Kingdom, but the King's persistent refusal to immediately restore parliament or call for elections is preventing a solution.

• Bangladesh's opposition is also taking its case to the streets amid unprecedented authoritarian tactics by Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's government, which has been accused of massive corruption and a swing towards Islamic fundamentalism. A scandal has broken out over a seizure of over $100m worth of arms in Chittagong. These arms could have been intended for various terror groups in the region, including those fighting Indian forces in its north eastern states, Myanmar insurgents, Tamil Tigers and al Qaeda's regional affiliates. In this hostile environment vigilantism has emerged.

• Violence has flared up in Thailand's south, where government forces are fighting militants variously described as drug smugglers, local influence-peddlers and al Qaeda related Islamic fundamentalists. Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has authorized the Thai armed forces to take strong action; which has led to protests from neighboring Malaysia's Islamic opposition parties whose sympathies lay with the Muslim population of southern Thailand. Thailand has also asked Malaysia so send moderate Muslim preachers there to help blunt the spread of extremist Islam.

ETCETERA

• Sri Sri Ravishankar, a Hindu Holy man, who recently related how he was able to make a group of armed Naxalites convince 8,000 of their fellow terrorist surrender after talking and meditating them has some interesting advice for President Bush.