Winds of Change.NET: Russia's Kosovo Precedent

September 5, 2008

Russia's Kosovo Precedent

by Michael Totten at September 5, 2008 11:16 PM

Russia’s Vladimir Putin darkly hinted that his country would invade and dismember Georgia months before last month’s war in the South Caucasus region began. “We have Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Pridnestrovie [Transnistria],” he said back in February this year after Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, “and they say Kosovo is a special case?” Putin has a point, but only a very small one. The overwhelming majority of Kosovars want nothing more to do with Serbia just as the majorities in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia want to secede. But there the similarities end.

Kosovo is a viable nation state of more than two million people, greater in size than its neighbors Montenegro and Macedonia which also broke free of Yugoslavia recently. (Montenegro’s secession from the Yugoslavian rump state of Serbia-Montenegro in 2006 somehow didn’t produce any hand-wringing about a “Montenegro precedent” in Russia or anywhere else.)

South Ossetia, meanwhile, has a population of around 60,000 people, the size of a small American suburb. Abkhazia’s population is less than 200,000, around the size of a large American suburb. These are not viable nation states.

Nevertheless, last week Russia recognized them as independent. Unlike Kosovo – which is formally recognized by 46 counties, including all of the G7 – no country in the world other than Russia recognizes the “independence” of Abkhazia or South Ossetia. That’s partly because what really just happened is de facto Russian annexation. Before the invasion and dismemberment of Georgia, Russia made the majority in South Ossetia and Abkhazia citizens of Russia and gave passports to anybody who asked. I just returned from a trip to Georgia, and the Russian military wouldn’t let me enter South Ossetia or even the central Georgian city of Gori because I did not have a Russian visa.

Read the rest in COMMENTARY Magazine.

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Comments

#1 from metrico at 8:13 am on Sep 06, 2008

What's the population of Andorra? Lichtenstein? Brunei? Dominica?

I frankly do not give a damn about Totten's analysis of whether Ossetia and Abkhazia are viable nation states.

The fact is that they have distinct languages and cultures and regard the Georgians as oppressors. If they want to be independent, or autonomous Russian oblasts, it's not worth going to war over.

#2 from Michael J. Totten at 9:11 am on Sep 06, 2008

not worth going to war over

You really -- I mean really -- need to read the article again if you think I'm advocating a war with Russia over Ossetia.

#3 from laura at 12:59 pm on Sep 06, 2008

thanks Micheal, you are one of the best journalist and good person, because you are trying to find out trues. I know that Georgians didn't started war in south ossetia, i know that Russians giving passports to people living in Georgia and they are using small ethnic groups against Georgian. Russians gave them money, weapons and this way they are provoking wars.
I know that 1992-1993 Russians killed around 20,000-30,000 Georgians and kicked out 80% of populations out of abkhazia, Georgia, mostly Georgian.
Now Russians used Ossetioans against Georgian and they came and occupy country. They burned down all Georgian villages in conflict zone and so call in "buffer zone". they are pushing even Georgians to take Russian passports.
I know that and you know that and whole world knows that, But thing is Russia has oil and gas and like they say Europe is "heavily depend" on them, and also Europe need Russian market to invest more money and even more.
what do you think? true matters? what is see no one cares that Russians continuing Georgians genocide. they sold out Georgia and even themselves because of money and influence.
One fact, Look I hear lately that Russians allow OSCE observers in conflict area. this is official news from them.
No one saying who are those observers and where exactly they are or what do they see there. Same time Georgians have more refuges from "buffer zones" occupied by Russians. and know they
"Representative of OSCE parliamentary assembly Goran Lenmarker was not allowed to enter the village by Russian occupants who are located in Karaleti.
OSCE special delegation was sent back without any explanation."
other info"For the first time today, international observers were allowed to travel to the occupied territory since the August conflict with Russia. OSCE military monitors launched patrolling in the Tskhinvali region.

They have already inspected the Karaleti-Megvrekisi sector of the road, which is four kilometers away from Tskhinvali.

Reportedly, the observers have also patrolled the village of Meghvrekisi; however, yesterday the Russian soldiers did not let the OSCE parliamentary assembly official travel to the region."
you can make conclusion from it. Russian let OSCE observers where ever they want them to be, not the areas where Georgians ethnic cleansing took places.
what the point to have any international observers if They are helping occupant Russians, not civilians.
I can assure you that at the end they will blame Georgian government. They will say that Georgia is the one did genocide of small ethnic Ossetians. This is "convenient true " for Europe and for Russia, Because Europe, this "paper tiger", can not admit that they failed to protect small country like Georgia from Russian invasion, they can not admit that Russia set the rules for them, they can not admit they that it's all about money they are not ready to loose. and Russia in other hand plays by rule: "strong is always right" and they can show they they are capable to restore there influence in there "satellite country".

My friend True does not matter, strong is always right.