Special Analysis: Predictions Revisited...

About 2 weeks ago I made a number of specific predictions on the future direction of the war on terrorism that I thought might be useful guides to what the enemy will do next. You can access those predictions here.

Today I'm going to go through each of those predictions one by one to see how close on track I was and what that means for the future ...

Here is a listing at my various analyses and predictions (the "committees" being referenced here are the al-Qaeda military committees that coordinate terrorist activities) and analysis on how they turned out.

1. One committee in northern Pakistan, specifically the Northwest Frontier Province, Baluchistan, and Azad Kashmir that coordinates both the Taliban/Hezb-e-Islami insurgency in Afghanistan and terrorist activities across the Indian subcontinent. If bin Laden is alive, this is where he is likely to be. The loss of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Tawfiq Attash Khallad, and Ammar al-Baluchi has likely heavily diminished this committee's capabilities.

While there is still a definite center of terrorist attacks, the number of dead civilians being killed by the jihadis, with the exception of the August Bombay bombing that left 50 dead there have been no mass casualty attacks by the al-Qaeda affiliates HuM, JeM, and LeT appear to be on a downward swing that will hopefully continue. Nevertheless, the loss of the leadership does not negate the organization possessing the infrastructure or will to carry out major attacks, as events like this clearly demonstrate.

2.One committee located at an IRGC military base in the Kerman province of Iran, allegedly "under arrest." As this committee appears to be the one that is coordinating the insurgency in Iraq, I would take Iranian claims that the al-Qaeda leaders are in custody and unable to communicate with their followers with a whole shaker of salt.

Judging from recent reports regarding Saad bin Laden and two dozen other al-Qaeda leaders being hosted at IRGC military bases, it would appear that my suspicions were right on the margin here.

3.One committee located in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge and in Chechnya whose members include Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev, Abu Walid (a relative of three of the 9/11 hijackers), Abu Iyad, and Abu Khabab, the head of al-Qaeda's WMD department. This committee is heavily involved with their counterparts in Iran and has a number of additional members according to Collin Powell's presentation to the UN who were complicit in the attempted plots to use chemical weapons in Europe in late 2002 and early 2003.

Chechnya has been fairly quite of lately (relatively speaking) and the Russians recently thwarted a major attack on their handpicked leader in Chechnya. However, Chechnya is still a focus for jihadi activity and is very likely to remain such for the near future.

4.There appears to be at least one more committee located somewhere in Africa (Sudan, Somalia, or Niger would be my best bet) that consists of a number of dangerous individuals that include Hassan Hattab, Mokhtar Belmokhtar, Abderazak al-Para, and Fazul Abdullah Mohammed. Of all the al-Qaeda leaders, these are probably the ones that we know the least about.

I wrote this before the GSPC directly merged with al-Qaeda and Hassan Hattab was deposed. The recent attacks on Western NGOs in Somalia and Eritrea, with the attacks in the latter nation being directly linked to al-Qaeda, would seem to indicate that Africa is taking on more and more of an importance to the network, a topic I'll deal with further down.

5.Africa is going to take on an increased role in terms of the war on terrorism. Both Burkina Faso and the former government of Charles Taylor in Liberia had documented ties to al-Qaeda that remained strong even after September 11. Al-Qaeda operatives began arriving in Somalia almost as soon as the Taliban fell in Afghanistan and the organization reputedly established bases in Algeria, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Nigeria in June 2002. Additional strongholds were said to have been established in Sudan and Kenya at some point prior to the Riyadh bombings. These bases are going to take on more and more importance for the organization as the battle continues.

Again, the incorporation of the GSPC into al-Qaeda and the attacks against Westerners in Eritrea and Somalia are all indicative of this. Far more telling is this story from the Washington Post documenting the spread of both Wahhabism and al-Qaeda into Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria. As the article suggests, the US would do well to follow these moves to ensure that al-Qaeda is unable to transform Africa into a successful base from which to recoup the substantial losses that it has suffered over the last two years.

6.The current fighting in Iraq is now the central pivot of al-Qaeda's global war against the West. Increasing amounts of resources and operatives are going to be diverted away from regional campaigns in order to fight against coalition forces in Iraq. This turns the fighting in Iraq into a contest of collective wills between the coalition and the terrorists as far as who backs down first. If they succeed in Iraq and force the US to withdraw with its mission unfullfilled, using Iraq as a base from which to destabilize other Middle East states will be child's play by comparison.

The writing is on the wall on this one, as can be seen in the very words of bin Laden (or at the very least, someone who sounds like him). Iraq has become the central battlefield of the global jihad and while it has a temporary force multiplier for the organization, there is also the added benefit of creating a battlefield where we can do to them what they seek to do to us: kill their fighters and exhaust their resources. It has become somewhat cliche in blogosphere, but every al-Qaeda fighter dead in the sands of Iraq is one less suicide bomber with which to attack New York City or Washington D.C.

The enemy is quite aware of this, which is why they seek to thwart our efforts in Iraq at all costs. They know that Iraq is a battle in this war that they dare not afford to lose and it must be recognized that the same is also true for us.

7.Tracking down and eliminating each of these leadership committees should take on a top priority as a means of both ending the foreign insurgency in Iraq as well as serving as the ultimate means with which to splinter the terrorist network. That al-Qaeda is now forced to incorporate what had previously been affiliates into the center is ultimately a sign of weakness and a testimony to the success thus far of US-led anti-terrorism efforts. By destroying the entire leadership of the terrorist network, al-Qaeda's remnants and affiliates will splinter apart, enabling each of them to be dealt with in turn. The loss of the leadership, combined with the destruction of any bases that have been established over the last year and the disruption of the financial channels, will be the three blows that nail shut al-Qaeda's coffin once and for all.

This statement was true two weeks ago and it remains true now. Killing a hydra is tricky business, but sooner or later it dies.

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