"Hamas, the Islamic radical party now ruling the Palestinians, announced that they don't really care about financial aid from Europe or the U.S. This is because Hamas believes that soon the world will be largely Islamic, and the Christian nations will amount to little, or nothing, in the grand scheme of things. Hamas believes they are on a mission from God, and that their success is preordained. This creates some difficulties when trying to negotiate with Hamas."
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And this is going to accelerate the splintering of Hamas tenfold.
Hamas believes that soon the world will be largely Islamic ...
Just like the Bolsheviks believed, circa 1918, that all of Europe would be "socialist" within ten years (or less). So they negotiated as if any opposition or setback was purely temporary.
This gave them the reputation, among the usual assortment of chumps, of being the kind of people you could reason with.
Hamas has other similarities to the Bolsheviks. Like the Bolsheviks, they spring from the poorest and most backward region of their ideological world. The Bolsheviks felt culturally and historically inferior to the fat socialists of Germany and Western Europe, but at the same time felt ideologically purer. That's not far from how the Palestinian views the Saudi.
The Hamas Five Year Plan. Heh
The best way for Israel to destroy Hamas is to engage them diplomatically. They cant offer anthing at the table so it costs nothing. The world is demanding Israel be recognized and Hamas cant do that. They will tear themselves apart if Israel just manages to stay out of the way and not unite them. Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
What will cause Hamas to tear themselves apart? They've decided they're not willing to rise even to the notoriously low standards the West sets for aiding the palestinians. They're going to get their cash from Muslim sources (and perhaps Latin American ones, too, if this is to be believed). They haven't come close to renouncing terror, but Russia - with the support of France - is already reaching out. There are reports saying that the U.S. is going to soften its posture after the Israeli elections (refraining now so as not to ruin Olmert's chances).
They're going to get their cash from Muslim sources
I can't believe it, Colt. From where are going to obtain the cash those leftist European middlemen, such as Fernando Huarte?
I can't believe we the Europeans save 500 million Euro.
"What will cause Hamas to tear themselves apart?"
The same thing that causes the almost all radical groups to rip themselves apart when they finally gain the throne- power. Power and money (the same thing really). However much the Saudis and anyone else send wont be enough to effectively govern the territories (what with the built in corruption tax inherint in the whole system, at least the UN/Euros on occasion demand some level of transparency). There will be purges and probably civil war if history is any indicator, espcially with all the rivals like Fatah still out there causing trouble.
Look, Hamas cant reform the territories, and they cant destroy Israel. Those are the two things they campaigned on, yet it's impossible for them to deliver. What that equals is pressure, and the pressure will build. Some faction will advocate maximum violence against Israel, some will advocate biding time and trying to get UN/Euro dollars back into the equation. This will cause strife. Some will seek Al Qaeda help, some will be against this. More fractures. The more option we and the Israelis can put on the table diplomatically, the more facets with the potential for disagreement. And it costs nothing because you are never actually offering anything. Just talk. We should learn from our enemies, think about how effectively Hussein and the Iranians use just this tactic to cause strife within the West. Rejecting Hamas gets you nothing if you dont intend to destroy them by force. Assuming that is off the table for the moment, the next best option is to ferment discord and this is a cheap and easy way to do that.
Mark nailed it. Click on my name for a discussion on historical precedent.
Like Castro's revolutionaries? The Iranian mullahs? The Bolsheviks? How about Fatah?
So what? Not many Arab countries are governed effectively. Hamas will blame the West for any economic woes, due to the withdrawal of aid.
The only Hamas figure who has come close to accepting negotiations with Israel told reporters sarcastically that, if Israel wanted to offer prisoners or territory, they would be happy to meet with them to accept. That's it. That was the "negotiations aren't taboo" guy. There isn't a faction of Hamas interested in talking to Israel - not the Syria-based leadership, not the Gaza leaders, not the cells in Judea and Samaria.
We haven't seen much in the way of deviation from the line coming from Damascus: no talks with Israel, continue 'resistance', reject Oslo. Castro, the USSR, the PLO, etc, all had/have a uniting figure (in the murderous totalitarian sense). And while Meshaal isn't exactly Arafat, he runs a pretty tight ship - especially when you consider he's in Damascus.
"Like Castro's revolutionaries?"
Broke with Guevera (who won the revolution for him) by the mid-60s.
"The Iranian mullahs?"
Internal Iranian disputes was one of the main reasons Hussein initiated the Iran-Iraq war in 1980.
"The Bolsheviks?"
Trosky?
"How about Fatah?"
How bout them? What they up to these days? Theyve spent the last 5 years fighting amongst themselves while running the place into the ground.
"So what? Not many Arab countries are governed effectively. Hamas will blame the West for any economic woes, due to the withdrawal of aid. "
Ok. So what? I think we can agree Hamas will blame the West for whatever the outcome, that shouldnt influence our thinking. What should influence it is the prospect of keeping Western dollars out of Palestine. So long as the territories remain broken and corrupt Israel has little to fear from Hamas. You think a vital and cash infused Palestinian state with an Israel unwilling to so much as talk will be more less of a threat?
"The only Hamas figure who has come close to accepting negotiations with Israel told reporters sarcastically that, if Israel wanted to offer prisoners or territory, they would be happy to meet with them to accept. That's it."
Exactly. That is wonderful. I want to see press releases like that on the BBC and CNN every day for the next year. Like I said, you cant buy bad press like that for your enemies. The more opportunities we provide to hand Hamas a bullhorn the better.
"We haven't seen much in the way of deviation from the line coming from Damascus: no talks with Israel, continue 'resistance', reject Oslo."
So much the better. Dont mistake me by thinking i believe Hamas will make much less execute any deal. In fact im counting on them not to. Thats the beauty of it. The more they sound like mindless killers the better, so give them every stage to do it on.
"Castro, the USSR, the PLO, etc, all had/have a uniting figure (in the murderous totalitarian sense)."
And what all those regimes have in common is the utter failure of their goal at spreading revolution. At best they maintained grubby little 3rd world prison-states. If force is off the table, containment is your next best option. What exactly is gained by grandstanding besides the pleasure of giving Hamas the finger? Wow, we told Hamas to F off, what then? No, in this particular game you go out of your way to appear accomidating and reasonable, there is only upside.
Much as I'd like to believe Mark's approach will work, I've got to go with Colt on this one.
Hamas is not brittle, it's flexible, and it is not a personality cult. It is a franchise of the Muslim Brotherhood. These are patient and clever people and it is a mistake to believe they will easily be punk'd.
Hamas can however deliver things: it can "calm down" (its term, not mine) the violence against Israel, it can dangle the prospect of a cold armistice (not peace, not recognition, not the end of claims). Through interloqutors such as Abbas it can negotiate without actually "negotiating".
Putin's move is just the first step. The funding will not be cut off, and Hamas will gain a kind of defacto, operational legitimacy in the world.
I'd turn the question around: putting aside the question of what might cause Hamas to implode, what is in the best interest of Israel right now?
#11 Mark
40+ years ago - Castro still in power.
20+ years ago, mullahs still in power, now premier sponsors of terror and manufacturers of nuclear weapons.
Nearly 100 years ago, didn't stop the USSR from exporting death and misery all over the world (never mind within the Soviet Union).
Fatah took power a decade ago, and they're only now starting to turn on each other in a serious way - and only because Arafat is gone. In the meantime, how many Israelis did they kill?
All of these examples demonstrate that 'revolutionary' movements fracture, but they take different amounts of time to do so and usually murder a lot of people before they do. As a strategy for destroying Hamas, its a bad one. One day, ten years from now, Hamas might split?
The territories were broken and corrupt four years ago when suicide bombers were striking every week.
1. My point was that there is no obvious issue that splits Hamas, which undermines the theory that power will tear them apart.
2. How's that bad PR working so far? The only countries that aren't officially dealing with Hamas are the U.S. and Israel. Hamas has picked up friends in Russia and South America without having to change their stance - and Europe will follow.
As you know, I don't think force should be off the table. But dealing with Hamas for PR that isn't going to work anyway is at best pointless, and at worst encourages them in their belief that Israel is ripe for more terror.
I'll simply reiterate my point, if force is off the table (which like it or not it seems to be for the moment), shaking your finger at Hamas accomplishes nothing but encouraging more nations to support the 'poor misunderstood Palestinians that Israel wont negotiate with', oh and making you feel tough. Inviting them to the table with the simple demand that they recognize your right to exist (which they will not) wins you support and loses them support in the West. They wont do it so absolutely nothing is required of Israel, except a little pride. Colt, I understand where you are going but it is predicated on a policy change that isnt on the table at the moment.
Believe me, i dont think it is a cure-all and i certainly dont think actual negotation would lead anywhere. But in the context of the Sharon plan- ie unilateral disengagement and building defensible borders- it makes perfect sense to isolate Hamas diplomatically as much as it is possible for Israel to do. And the best way to do that is to help show the world exactly what they are. Its disengenuous to say 'oh Russia is doing this, Saudi is doint that' as though there is anything Israel could do to influence those nations policies. Israel can influence Western nations policies, however, particularly a Europe that is finally being forced to look terrorism in the face. They can pick up some empathy but first they have to disarm the knee-jerk anti-Israelism. Its a grown up world, you have to build policies to influence areas that you can influence, not throw up your hands because there are places nothing you can do has any effect. This one is a no-brainer, it costs nothing and can help the cause.
MEMRI has just translated Hamas' covenant, which I take it is sort of like its contract with Gaza:
Source
When someone takes an absolutist position like this, you've got to make them eat their words. You don't make it easy for Russians or Saudis or South American dictators. Maybe it doesn't come from Israel, maybe the U.S. proposes "peaceful solutions, initiatives and international conferences." Use the same words Hamas used.
This is not primarily directed at Hamas, its directed at the World.
How can you say that Israel cannot possibly influence Russia or KSA, but can make Europeans not hate Israel? Israel can't stop Chavez making overtures, but can undo everything pumped out by the European media, goverments and Union by simply inviting Hamas to the table?
How?
"How can you say that Israel cannot possibly influence Russia or KSA, but can make Europeans not hate Israel? "
Because European nations are democratic and respond to the will of their people, not the whims of their West-hating dictators. Putin and Chavez are thugs at heart, the European people arent bad, just misguided. Cracking into their thick, socialism soaked heads is a priority for the survival of the West.
#17 Mark Buehner
Israel will never - never - be a deciding issue in any European election. It is a lot safer to attack Israel than support it, and with demographics as they are, that isn't going to change.
"Israel will never - never - be a deciding issue in any European election."
Thats too simplistic of a take. Its all part of the ball of wax, which is why Israel is so integral to US policy as well. We need to push the Euros over the cliff with us into realizing this is a world wide conflict against Islamo-fascism, and Hamas is the same threat as kids burning cars in Paris as blowing up humvees in Iraq as blowing up trains in Madrid and London. What we need out of our allies is a paradigm shift, and Israel is a part of that.
"It is a lot safer to attack Israel than support it, and with demographics as they are, that isn't going to change."
In the short term. One of our jobs is to force them to face facts. Israel is a liberal western nation, their enemies are the enemies of all of us. Europe will realize that at some point, hopefully not too late. Arafats 'brilliance' was showing them an illusion they wanted to believe. Hamas cant hold that illusion together unless Israel helps them.
Arafat managed to run a terrorist campaign while still pretending to be a peacemaker - only because Israel made diplomatic overtures to the PLO.
Hamas may try to maintain a similar face by having non-Hamas figures in top cabinet positions, and obviously by maintaining Abbas. All that need happen for Europe to 'find' another Arafat is for the non-Hamas cabinet to accept Israel's overtures. And we're back to square one.
"All that need happen for Europe to 'find' another Arafat is for the non-Hamas cabinet to accept Israel's overtures. And we're back to square one."
But Hamas has indicated it wont acknowledge Israels right to exist. Israel can never resume negotiations until they do. Hence it is very simple for Israel to offer the negotiation branch knowing full well Hamas will never pick it up with that simple universally acknowledged requirement. Thats just my point, Israel gains sympathy and loses nothing by simply taking the position that they are willing to negotiate but Hamas isnt willing to. The Palestinians used this tactic to great effect over the years, which is a large part of the way they gained Europeans sympathy to begin with.
Hamas won't, but the non-Hamas cabinet members - plus president Abbas - will. And when Israel says Hamas has to accept Israel's right to exist, and refuses to negotiate with people who already have because Hamas won't, Israel will be the bad guy - again.