As the volume of warnings from Washington increases, there's growing speculation that Syria may become the next country to tangle with the U.S. military. While Bashar Assad could always play his hand poorly, those on the left and right floating invasion scenarios misunderstand the policies and strategic calculations driving both Syria and Washington.
The rest of my thoughts can be found at Tech Central Station ("Syria Surrounded") including some excellent analysis from Asymetrical Information commenter Mike Plaiss.
As an addendum, Zogby Blog details the extent of the economic damage from shutdown of the Iraq pipeline to Syria. He then notes the additional threat represented by reintroduction of the Syria Accountability Act in Congress (see exact text).
Finally, a piece of langniappe for readers of the blog. Though it was removed from the TCS article, Iran came up in discussions with Mike Plaiss while he was giving me permission to use his comments. My thoughts were as follows:
"Syria's ally Iran, meanwhile, becomes a covert action playground conveniently supported from nearby Iraq. It's clear that Iran has already decided to try and make the U.S.A.'s presence as difficult as possible in Iraq, so the Americans should have no issue with payback in kind. You want to play that way, Mr. Khameni? Fine. We'll make your occupation of Iran hell. How do you like them apples? While internal pressure mounts, pinpoint strikes on key nuclear and WMD facilities etc. become serious possibilities if developments require it. As a bonus, the very act of doing so would further destabilize the War on Terror's true center of gravity, by providing a clear display of the Iranian regime's weakness. As we've seen in Iraq, displays of that nature can be very dangerous to unpopular regimes.Mike's reaction?
MP: "Fully understanding what motivates dictators is half the battle. An administration that "gets it" (and I think this one does) can exert tremendous pressure. Expect to see policies that clearly display [their] weaknesses as a way of making these regimes vulnerable."UPDATE: Michael Ledeen has more on Iran and the current situaiton in Iraq.
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