Winds of Change.NET: TEOLAWKI, continued

January 31, 2008

TEOLAWKI, continued

by Donald Sensing at January 31, 2008 3:46 AM

TEOLAWKI - The End of Life as We Know It - continues to threaten.

First there was the supernova and galactic-attack scenarios.

Then the predicted return of the comet Genondahwayanung, which pretty much annihilated most life in North America when it came here the first time.

And then the massive gas cloud speeding toward a collision with the Milky Way!

And now, yet another insult: The earth's atmosphere may detonate.

It seems that about 55 million years ago, there was a massive warming of the earth (incredibly, before human beings existed!) that caused mass extinctions. Known as the Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum (LPTM), the warming period lasted about 100,000 years and ushered in the rise of mammals, leading eventually to the evolution of human beings.

Its cause? The release into the atmosphere of enormous amounts of methane.

A tremendous release of methane gas frozen beneath the sea floor heated the Earth by up to 13 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius) 55 million years ago, a new NASA study confirms. NASA scientists used data from a computer simulation of the paleo-climate to better understand the role of methane in climate change. While most greenhouse gas studies focus on carbon dioxide, methane is 20 times more potent as a heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere.

Methane is solvent in ocean waters, but below 500 meters in depth the cold and pressure forces the methane to become trapped within ice crystals. Generally, this ice (which can actually be set alight if brought to the surface) is embedded on or under the sea floor.

[H]owever, that might not always have been the case. A period of global warming, called the Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum (LPTM), occurred around 55 million years ago and lasted about 100,000 years. Current theory has linked this to a vast release of frozen methane from beneath the sea floor, which led to the earth warming as a result of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The hypothetical cause of the release was the tectonic shifts of the continents, especially of the Indian subcontinent smashing (geologically speaking) into Asia breaking up the sea floor for thousands of miles and releasing trapped methane into the atmosphere.

But it gets worse! Some scientists say that with a properly large sea floor eruption, such as a massive earthquake, so much methane could be released into the air that the atmosphere itself could become literally a fuel-air explosive.

[T]here may be stagnant, oxygen-poor basins in the ocean where methane might accumulate. Even a small explosion could cause a catastrophe. Imagine what would happen if such an event occurred in the mid-Pacific. Tsunamis would be generated in continuous waves, striking Hawaii and the entire West Coast. Coastal areas would be flooded for miles inland. Methane/water clouds would auto-ignite and the massive fires could cause widespread destruction. Consequences could be global. Whatever humanity survives would be thrown into a Dark Age.

Now, there's some atmospheric warming for ya!

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Comments

#1 from Umbriel at 1:56 pm on Jan 31, 2008

If the methane would have to reach the atmosphere and mix with oxygen before detonating (and accepting for the moment the seemingly unlikely proposition that something, such as lightning, would ignite it before it diffused too much to be explosive), the blast would be taking place above the surface of the water. such a blast would tend to expend its energy along and away from the ocean surface rather than transferring energy to the water. I wouldn't want a front row seat, but I strongly doubt it would generate significant waves, much less "tsunamis".

The usual alarmist "give-me-more-research-funding-or-we're-all-doomed" worse-than-worst-case scenario.

#2 from Bart Hall (Kansas, USA) at 2:03 pm on Jan 31, 2008

Yes, indeed, if the current crop of clathrites (those methane ice balls on the ocean floor) were to release their methane it could warm up a lot, and even reverse the last 50+ million years of global cooling.

As it is, intelligent technological life anywhere within about 20 million light years could figure out that there's life of some sort on Earth. Our planetary methane profile way too high is a universal beacon.

And, BTW, if Comet Genondahwayanung caused so much devastation by crashing into Earth the first time ... how's it gonna do it again, eh?

#3 from Donald Sensing at 3:33 pm on Jan 31, 2008

Well, Bart, ya gotta read the linked post!

#4 from Donald Sensing at 3:35 pm on Jan 31, 2008

Unbriel, I accidentally saw the History Channel show referred to at the link. What it means is that the massive undersea earthquake causes the tsunami (as happened in the India Ocean in, what, 2004) and the methane clouds attack coastal cities by blowing up over them. Of course, they'd be washed away already from the tsunami, but nature ain't kind, eh?

Surely everyone realizes that my whole TEOLAWKI series is severely tongue in cheek, yes?

#5 from Mark Buehner at 3:45 pm on Jan 31, 2008

No problem. We just mine the methane and use it to to supercharge our SUVs. Problem solved.

Regardless, even in the disaster scenario the methane explosion would just cauterize the beachfront that the Tsunami had just erradicated. Think how many lives will be spared from disease.

#6 from andrewdb at 3:55 pm on Jan 31, 2008

Check out the book Out of Thin Air by Peter Ward, which traces the of O2 in the earth's atmosphere - which has varied from about 10 to over 30% (it is now about 21%) and the impact this has had on evolution, etc. Very interesting - and not many humans involved 600 million years ago!

#7 from Glen Wishard at 2:35 am on Feb 01, 2008

Feh. We thought the Trinity atomic bomb might ignite the atmosphere, and we went right ahead and set the damn thing off anyway. Cowboy Science rules.

We're not one of those pussy little Kyoto Accord countries with a pastel flag and a socialist half-wit for a prime minister. Not at the moment, anyway.

#8 from Wolf Pangloss at 3:24 pm on Feb 01, 2008

Glen, that is a motto worth repeating!

"We're not one of those pussy little Kyoto Accord countries with a pastel flag and a socialist half-wit for a prime minister."

I love it!