What smelled

As I mentioned, in addition to the people I contacted I also had a number of conversations with an individual and law enforcement that I know and the two of us were both cautiously skeptical of the account for a number of reasons:

• The much-reported al-Qaeda/Mara Salvatrucha alliance is more or less regarded as bunk by the major US intelligence agencies as well as Interpol. The Central American channels it came through are generally not regarded as reliable conduits for information and are atypically full of all kinds of bogus reports, corrupt or unreliable officials, and enough nepotism, kickbacks, and graft to make UNSCAM proud. This is one of the reasons why the US tends to take reports of al-Qaeda activity in Venezuela (sans Margarita Island) with a whole shaker of salt. Near as we can tell, Mara Salvatrucha is not a hierarchial organization so much as it is an informal association and even if al-Shukrijumah was meeting with members of the group in El Salvador, Honduras, and Mexico there would have been no way for him to strike any kind of broad-reaching agreement with them, even if bin Laden or one of his deputies gave him the authority to do so.

• While it is true that al-Qaeda has attempted to make use of the Mexican border crossings to enter the US, sometimes even with the aid of the Matamoros region Mara Salvatrucha in return for some quick cash, the whole reason that this means of crossing is preferred is because Arab nationals who speak Spanish can blend in fairly easily with the general population without arousing any suspicions. A group of Han Chinese nationals, however, would have found it extremely difficult to get into the US without raising an eyebrow among the Mexican criminal element, which is quite aware that the US is more than willing to offer cash rewards in return for apprehension of suspected terrorists. This is one of the reasons that the pre-election reports of Chechens entering via Mexico, first reported to the CIA by one of its much-vaunted spies within al-Qaeda, was so easy for the government to knock down.

• While there has been recent violence between the Muslim Hui and majority Han ethnic groups in China in the central Henan province over the last month, the vast majority of Chinese Muslims have not had the opportunity to be exposed to Wahhabism in general or al-Qaeda's brand of it in particular, thus making the chances of bin Laden having over a dozen to throw our way unlikely. If these had been Uighurs, tips provided to law enforcement would have made a lot more sense.

• The initial four Chinese nationals were described by the source as being chemists, a term that the US usually uses to refer to graduates of places like Darunta camp in Afghanistan. Judging from the thousands upon thousands of pages applications and documentation seized from Afghanistan, we have a pretty good idea who went through the Afghan camps like Darunta and are expending considerable time and effort looking for them. No Han Chinese nationals were listed as having gone through curriculum, and the only Uighurs who had were just taking introductory courses in basic poisons.

• The description of the Chinese as chemists clashed with their alleged plot to detonate a radiological weapon in Boston.

• If they were going to attack Boston, why enter the US through Mexico? The Canadian border isn't exactly the Great Wall of China and the chances of getting picked up en route to the intended target are far less ...

What made sense

In general, I think that law enforcement has to air on the side of caution - there was certainly a lot more information on these guys than there was on the two 9/11 hijackers who participated at the Kuala Lumpur summit, for example. But here are some of the reasons why the relevant authorities decided to issue the BOLO:

• Sure, the reporting by Central American governments is generally uncorroborated or garbage, but even a broken clock is right twice a day. Al-Qaeda has attempted to infiltrate operatives into the US through Mexico in the past and probably will again in the future.

• The reporting that the Chinese nationals were in the company of 2 Iraqis and planning to detonate a radiological weapon in Boston was consistent with al-Shukrijumah's interest in radiological weapons and KSM's standing directive prior to his arrest that the next major al-Qaeda attack take place in the Northeastern US.

• US understanding of the recent Henan violence has been heavily limited by Chinese censorship, similar to the way that bombings and other attacks carried out by Uighur terrorists aligned with al-Qaeda are frequently dismissed by Xinhua and other official media outlets as the work of lunatics acting alone. If the unrest in Henan was due to al-Qaeda influence or direction, it could indicate the presence of a far large al-Qaeda presence in China than had previously been believed.

• While we're pretty sure we know who went through Darunta and similar camps in Afghanistan, no similar consensus has been reached with respect to similar al-Qaeda or satellite facilities in northern Iraq and the Pankisi Gorge in Georgia. Kazakhstan recently disrupted low-level training camps being used by the al-Qaeda satellite group Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan that along with known al-Qaeda training camps in northern Pakistan could have imparted terrorist training to Han Chinese Muslims.

• At least one Arab national detained in Texas on immigration offenses had told US authorities that al-Qaeda may be planning to enter the US via Mexico to carry out a terrorist attack. He may have simply been going off media reports by various Texas congressional leaders concerning their statements on Mara Salvatrucha.

All in all ...

I'm actually pretty satisfied with the results, given how fast the alleged terrorists were able to be taken into custody by the relevant agencies. Moreover, the local authorities involved all handled themselves adequately and no panic resulted from the announcement of the threat. While this event proved to be yet another unfortunate false alarm, it does show just how far the US has progressed since the days before 9/11 with respect to the speed at which suspected terrorists can now be apprehended. Looking back at the way things were before the attacks, I'd say that substantial progress has been made.