The Future of Japan

Vodkapundit takes a look at a quiet but important player on the world stage: Japan.

"Fareed Zakaria thinks the sleeping Japanese giant might finally be stirring after a decade-long slumber:

"Many economists look at Japan and remain cautious. The economy is growing and the stock market is up, but in the last decade there have been many such false starts. More important, Japan’s reformist prime minister has not tackled the big economic problems the country faces—writing off bad loans, reforming the tax code and finding the right economic stimulus. In short, there has been no economic revolution. But in the last month Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has launched something more important—a political revolution."

There's more, and I suggest you read the whole thing to catch all of Zakaria's argument -- but I ain't buying...."

Read why not, and get the link to Zakaria's piece while you're at it. Gweilo Diaries takes Vodkapundit's analysis to the next level, giving more details about the obstacles while believing that reform is possible. Probable? Well, that remains to be seen. As for those bad loans, you might be wise to ponder the wider implications of the term "yakuza recession."

Meanwhile, I highly recommend picking up some thoughts from the futurists and scenario-planning gurus at Global Business Network - esp. the Economist excerpt from their "Scenarios for the Future of Japan" with Tadashi Nakama.