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The Nuclear Proliferation Nightmare -- A Retrospective

| 4 Comments

Now that the "Kim Regime" of North Korea has birthed the Nightmare of Rapid Nuclear Proliferation with it's Sunday nuclear test. I think a retrospective listing of "worst case posts" made here on Winds of Change on the subject of North Korean/Iranian nuclear proliferation is in order.

Starting with my 5-year anniversary September 11th prediction that North Korea was about to test a nuclear weapon:

NORTH KOREA'S COMING NUCLEAR TEST
by Trent Telenko at September 11, 2006 5:30 AM

This is my Sept. 11th prediction of the October 8th North Korean nuclear test. I make the points that
1) The Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs are not separate national programs, but are really a single, joint, international arms program;
2) That it can only be stopped via regime change in Iran,
3) That the logical assessment of the Libyan nuclear program meant If Libya could have nuclear weapons next year, Iran can have them now.
And finally,
4) That not stopping the Iranian nuclear program will lead to "A world of 20-30+ unstable nuclear-armed 3rd world tyrannies is less than a 15 years away, maybe as little as seven, if Iran succeeds in its goal of becoming a nuclear power."

IRAN'S NUCLEAR WARHEAD
by Trent Telenko at May 24, 2006 1:55 PM

Here I point out a Straegypage.com report that Iran is getting Russian and Chinese missile warhead design help.

COUNT DOWN TO IRAN’S NUCLEAR TEST REVISITED
by Trent Telenko at April 10, 2006 4:10 AM

I make the case that the US Government has chosen to mirror image the Iranian nuclear program rather than truly assess where Iran’s policy objective will lead its nuclear weapons development program. And that the result is that Iran has several gun-type fission warheads for its Scud missiles that the American intelligence and national security establishments deny the existence of.

Continued

HOLSINGER: THE UNITED STATES WILL ATTACK IRAN
by Guest Author Thomas Holsinger March 17, 2006 6:12 AM

Holsinger makes case that the US Government has chosen to attack Iran to pre-empt their nuclear program.

COUNT DOWN TO IRAN'S NUCLEAR TEST
by Trent Telenko at February 15, 2006 12:53 PM

Based on a Sunday Times of London article on North Korea’s plutonium stockpile, I predict in this post that the world is on a count down to both a Iranian nuclear test and possibly a nuclear war between the USA and Iran.

THE CASE FOR INVADING IRAN
by Guest Author Thomas Holsinger January 19, 2006 1:24 PM

Holsinger made the policy case for invading Iran to pre-empt their nuclear program.

IRAN'S SPOILING ATTACK
by Trent Telenko at April 20, 2004 3:23 AM

In this post I predicted that Iran would have nuclear weapons by the Spring of 2006

IRAN: IT WILL COME TO BLOWS
by Trent Telenko at July 13, 2003 3:44 PM

Based on a David Warren column, I predicted that the USA must conduct a ground invasion of Iran to pre-empt it from acquiring the nukes.

You can say a lot of things about the Nuclear Proliferation Nightmare we face. The one thing you can't say is you weren't told it was coming.

4 Comments

Its true- you guys have predicted 10 of the last 1 global upheavals. Congratulations.

I did not find the links in any of these articles to be satisfactory.

For instance, one cannot substantiate the claim that the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs are one and the same by casually linking to a 300 word stratpage article- one which only passingly hints that N. Korea might sell nukes to Iran but offers no evidence of any kind.

SAO

"There are none so deaf as those who do not wish to hear and none so blind as those who don't wish to see."

This is Micheal Yon reporting on the NRO corner blog:

Not Atomic [Michael Yon]
A very well-placed government source told me Tuesday afternoon that the North Korean explosion was non-nuclear. The explosion may have been an actual nuclear test - this is unknown - but the source reports the outcome was non-nuclear. The source stressed the importance of bearing in mind that though the explosion occured in North Korea - if it was actually a test and not merely a dictator clamoring for attention and influence - the test may have been by or for the Iranians. The source reported that American physicists with access to the information see no sign of nuclear activity, however. My source also mentioned that Japanese sensors picked up no radiation signatures.
This further confirms some of what Bill Gertz reported in the Washington Times this morning.
Posted at 4:35 PM

SAO,

This particular article is quoted numerous times in the article linked too above.

You could find it, if you actually bothered to read them. Since you didn't, the key passages are below for you.

North Korea's plutonium pile attracts Iran

The Sunday Times - January 29, 2006 - Michael Sheridan, Beijing

The drab compound that houses the Iranian embassy in Pyongyang is the focus of intense scrutiny by diplomats and intelligence services who believe that North Korea is negotiating to sell the Iranians plutonium from its newly enlarged stockpile - a sale that would hand Tehran a rapid route to the atomic bomb.
It would confound the international campaign to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions by restricting its ability to make bombs through the alternative method of enriching uranium.

The risk is viewed with such gravity in Washington that the United States has launched a concerted diplomatic and covert effort to prevent it, according to diplomats based in Pyongyang and Beijing.

The belief that Iran and North Korea are talking about plutonium stems from a recently reported offer of oil and gas from Tehran in exchange for nuclear technology ... "

Further down the article mentions:

"The Americans were aghast to learn last year that while engaging in disarmament talks, North Korea had made enough plutonium to amass a stockpile of about 43 kilograms, perhaps as much as 53kg. For the first time since the nuclear crisis began in 1994 it has sufficient fissile material to sell some to its ally while retaining enough for its own purposes. Plutonium is the element used to fuel the bomb that destroyed Nagasaki in 1945. Between 7kg and 9kg are needed for a weapon. According to Siegfried Hecker, the eminent American nuclear scientist, officials in North Korea intend to restart a reactor that will produce 60kg a year."

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