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The Perfect Iranian Storm on the Horizon

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Jonathan Spyer is not your typical Israeli journalist and political analyst. He has a PhD in International Relations, he fought in Lebanon during the summer war of 2006, then went back to Lebanon as a civilian on a second passport.

I can't say I felt particularly brave venturing into Hezbollah's territory along the Lebanese-Israeli border, but it takes guts for Israelis to go there. If Hezbollah caught him and figured out who he was, he would have been in serious trouble.

No one he met in Lebanon knew where he was from. Everyone thought he was British. And no one in Israel but his friends and colleagues knew he went back to Lebanon on his own. He decided, though, that he may as well "out" himself on my blog. His secret journey will soon be revealed anyway when his book comes out in November called The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict.

We met in Jerusalem this month and discussed his two trips to Lebanon--with and without a passport--and the perfect Iranian storm brewing on the horizon.

MJT: So why did you go back to Lebanon?

Jonathan Spyer: Lebanon is a fascinating place, and I wanted to visit for all sorts of reasons. I especially wanted to get back to where we were during the war. There is a green valley, which I imagine you know very well, between the towns of Khiam and Marjayoun.

MJT: Yes, I know where you're talking about.

Jonathan Spyer: We were down there in that valley during the war, and our tanks got shot up. I wanted to get back there and look at it from Khiam. I hired some guides in Beirut and asked them to take me. We took the coast road down, then drove all the way across southern Lebanon to the eastern sector. And I stood in Khiam and looked down into that valley.

We got stuck there because of a cock-up. The infantry in our division were supposed to capture Khiam. There were 300 Hezbollah men there. We were operating at night. After a series of screw-ups, our column of tanks ended up heading through that valley toward Israel with 300 Hezbollah men looking down on us in the morning. So you can imagine what happened.

And to make it even more ludicrous, we weren't even moving at the right speed. The steering mechanism on one of our tanks was broken, so we had to drag it with reinforced cables. We were going about five kilometers an hour. We were hardly moving at all. And we got blown to bits by Hezbollah's missiles. Our armor is pretty good, though, so only one of our guys was killed.

An Associated Press photographer was also in Khiam at the same time, so the AP has a photograph of our tanks in flames. [Laughs.] I'm laughing because I found that photograph on a pro-Hezbollah Web site, and this tough revolutionary guy was on there boasting and saying "the people in those tanks died horrible deaths!"

I wrote back and said, "Listen. With the exception of one person who was killed, the people in those tanks all got out, hid in the fields for over an hour, and got back across the Israeli border. All of them were operational again within 48 hours."

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Four quotes:

MJT: It took me years to understand how this place works just on the most basic level because it’s so different from the part of the world I grew up in. I first had to stop assuming Arabs think like Americans. Then I had to learn how they think differently from Americans. I still don’t fully understand them, and I probably never will.

I’d be interested in someone taking a stab at articulating this difference. We hear that Arabs are organized politically, and think, along tribal lines more than the West. My conception is that we, in the U.S., hold civil (secular) government and it’s role in upholding constitutional values centered on the rights of individuals as among our highest ideals. Do Arabs hold a more religious world view? How does the focus on tribalism make them think differently?

MJT: The Arab world has its own political culture, and it’s not like the political culture I know, or even like other Middle Eastern political cultures. If the Palestinians had a Western political culture, the problem here could be resolved in ten minutes. If you Israelis were dealing with Canadians instead of Palestinians, you would have had peace a long time ago. And if the Palestinians were dealing with Canadians instead of Israelis, there would still be a conflict.

I spent last weekend at Irish Fest in Milwaukee, and spent some time absorbing the ongoing force of the Unionist/Nationalist split. The historical hangover from the Cromwellian invasion and the dispossession and disenfranchisement of Irish Catholics has not worn off. To suggest that the dispossession and disenfranchisement of Palestinians would be solved in ten minutes (if only they were Canadians) seems very chauvinist.

Jonathan Spyer: They are [Iran having a real civilization and being more like China and India than Jordan and Qatar]. And it’s a dangerous thing when people have a feeling of historical justification and want to bring the world to order again. We’ve had experiences with that. It’s a worrisome combination. I think those ideas wedded to nuclear weapons is unacceptable. And I’m of the opinion that either the West or Israel will come to the conclusion that a nuclear Iran is worse than the military action needed to stop it, and will therefore take action.

This may be correct. The danger of people having “a feeling of historical justification”, of course applies equally to the Israeli settlers. There is talk that West Bank settlements could not be dismantled without a civil war.

Jonathan Spyer: I’d tell the current bunch in power [in the U.S.] that they need to ditch this sophomoric idea that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the key to the region’s malaise. They need to get that out of their heads. That’s not what I’d want to talk about. That’s not even an adult conversation. Once we can clear that up, we can talk about something serious.

Wow! A little sensitivity to the plight of Palestinians and the civil rights issues created by the creation of Israel and 40 years of occupation wouldn’t hurt.

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