As indicated by this report and a stream of others, Pakistan is increasingly being challenged in Waziristan by al-Qaeda and its allies, a situation that has been steadily building in momentum ever since the failure of Pakistani troops to defeat al-Qaeda and its IMU allies in the spring of 2004.
This poses a difficult question for the US since our favored policy since late 2001 has been to support the Musharraf government in Pakistan and assist them in fighting al-Qaeda as an internal Pakistani affair. But if the Pakistani military is more or less thrown out of Waziristan as is now looking more and more as may be the case, I think it's fair to raise the question of what we do then given our current problems with regard to US overstretch and the delicate nature of the political situation there. I certainly don't have the answer, but I sure as hell hope that somebody does.
"I think it's fair to raise the question of what we do then given our current problems with regard to US overstretch and the delicate nature of the political situation there. I certainly don't have the answer, but I sure as hell hope that somebody does"
The overstretch is a non-issue since under no circumstances are we going to deploy tens of thousands of troops to the province, much less the hundreds of thousands it would take to truly own the place. A few teams of SF with some experienced CIA operatives backed by air power would be enough to aid the Pakistani government in regaining the region (or another indigenous local tribe if necessary). That was the formula that worked so brilliantly in Afghanistan, I have no idea why we would think of reinventing the wheel.
Iran.
Dan,
I enjoy reading your Blog. I also wish someone has an answer about Waziristan. Ultimately, I think it will come down to TOTAL EXTERMINATION of all forms of Radical Islam, world wide. That probably means about 15 to 20% of that population. I just hope that the less rabid Islamic strains do not become radicalized in the process.
Is that possible? Are there 150 to 200 Million Radicals? Yeah, those are the probable gross numbers. That is Earth's Cancer that we have to cure. Education and conversion may lower the numbers. (We can hope so anyway).
How much does Waziristan depend upon the govt for fuel, electricity, and the like? Do you mean to say there is no pressure Musharraf can put upon this region?
MR - my sense is that the rest of Pakistan is not (or at least hasnt been) ready for an all out war on Wazirstan, as opposed to a war on foreign AQ terrorists in Wazirstan. Thats where all the paki-waki, urdu press, etc posts here come in. WE may think that its obvious that the Waziris are in bad with AQ, and need to be stopped. To a huge proportion of the population of the rest of Pakistan, while its understandable that Perv wants to go after AQ (which, afterall, tried to kill him) the Waziris are more potential victims of the evil, crusader, imperialist, zionist US - and anything Perv does up there is looked at in that light.
Perv has to balance the costs of allowing open defiance in Waziristan,with the political costs in Rest of Pakistan of dealing with said defiance.
"Thats where all the paki-waki, urdu press, etc posts here come in"
oops, i forgot this wasnt rantburg :)
Remember when the Shias of Gilgit rose up in revolt? Their violent rebellion was crushed in 1988 by Zia-ul-Haq, and the Sunni Pashto tribesmen from Waziristan were the foot soldiers, accompanied, it is said, by Osama bin Laden. This ruthless retaliation and suppression grew into ethnic--or religious--genocide throughout the NA and the NWFP. Who was the cold-blooded military leader who brutally suppressed the Shia insurgency in Pakistan? Pervez Musharraf.
It was Musharraf who subsequently gave license to the Punjabi Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan--an ISI and Saudi Deobandi-Wahabi creation-- to keep the recalcitrant Shias, the Tehreek-e-Jafferia Pakistan, in check. It was the SSP that moved into Iran--at the behest of Saudi intelligence and in concert with Iraq's Mujahideen-e-Khalq-- to foment an armed insurgency against the Shia government of Iran in Baloch territories.
And that's just the late 1980s! Is Pakistan bizarre and enigmatic enough for you? How about this: it is widely believed in Pakistan that it was a vengeful Shia airman from Gilgit who took down Zia on his final flight from Bahawalpur in August 1988--killing an American ambassador as well. So, sectarian violence and inter (and intra) party, province, agency and tribal score-settling is often beyond the ken of westerners, particularly naivie journalists, but even those with academic 'area studies' backgrounds (usually anthropologists, alas.) Remember, the Waziris once fought a 30 year 'honor' war (Pushtunwali) in this century--and completely stalemated the Brits--over a Hindi convert, a bride who married into a Muslim Wazir family but was taken back by decree of British Raj judges. (These are the kind of warriors we want to win to our side...!)
Still, I love it over there and treasure my time spent in Waziristan, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, the NWFP--all of it: the hospitality of the Wazirs, the Afridis, travelling through the Khyber Pass, and up through the unbelievable treacherous roads through the mountains to the legendary gun bazaar in Darra and into the land of the Wazirs. The last Wild West to be sure, but it's not Deadwood, it's real. With a slight adjustment of policyor better interpersonal diplomacytheyd be our closest allies.
[Wish I could post my pictures among the Waziris here!]
"With a slight adjustment of policyor better interpersonal diplomacytheyd be our closest allies."
Could you please elaborate John?