Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are normally given by Colt, of Eurabian Times. This week Colt is enjoying a well deserved break.
Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by USMC_Vet of The Word Unheard.
TOP TOPICS
- Ken Timmerman’s new book, "Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran", contains this document showing a definitive link between Iran and al Qaeda, detailing the smuggling of oil products into Iran in the early 1990's. Timmerman has also written a brief al Qaeda-Iran Timeline, beginning with a relationship spun up by Zawahiri in Sudan in 1992.
- Now that the silly election inconvenience is over, the real Ahmadinejad confidently steps forward in Iran. You'll remember him. Yes, him.
- Operation Sword has swung into action in western Iraq. So far, information has been sparsely available, save for official press releases and the re-working of them by the press they are released to. Weapons caches have been siezed and there is a report that 13 were captured and detained.
Other Topics Today Include:
Russia ready to build six more reactors in Iran; Iran's Second Islamic Revolution; Iraq terror manula contains 'moral justification for killing innocent Iraqis'; a 'Defining Battle' for Iraqi troops; Night Stalker down in Afghanistan; Zalmay Khalilzad's would-be assassins arrested; Operation Diablo Reach Back; Hizballah attacks Israeli positions; Pastor tells congress of 'North American Community' borderless 'security' plan; Darfur War Crimes considered by ICC; US Coast Guard in Africa; China's Unocal chase; France is demanding something else again; 70 Achievements in the War on Terrorism and much more.
IRAN REPORTS
- Russia agrees to build six more reactors going forward. Meanwhile, Sam Nunn argues that America should do more and give more money to Russia for nuclear security. Much more. You know...the Russia who's former Nuclear Minister is jailed and has been indicted by the US for embezzlement of those same Nuclear Security Funds? Let's keep the money and send them a Nuclear Security Memo: Stop Building Iran's Nuclear Reactors!
- Ayelet Savyon declares "Second Islamic Revolution" now complete. We saw above how president-'elect' Ahmadinejad participated in the first one. Funny thing happened on the way to the polling booth last Friday...some Iranians picked up a paper declaring his 'win' before voting started. No worry. Just a minor glitch.
IRAQ
- Carnival of the Liberated shows us an Iraqi Blogger pointing out that Iraqi National Guard uniforms can be bought openly in Baghdad bazaars. Our fine Jihadi friends wear them and wield the full power of Iraqi officers in Iraqi neighborhoods. That would tend to make Iraqi officers in stations and barracks suspicious of everyone approaching, uniformed or not. Not a good state.
- Chrenk’s Good News from Iraq noted the Marines' capture of an al Qaeda Jihad Manual. Watch Your Six hears that it contains "moral justification for killing innocent Iraqis."
- While a Shia leader was killed in a bombing Tuesday, the al Qaeda in Iraq leader said responsible for kidnappings & extracting ransom was removed from circulation.
- A ‘Defining Battle’ against terrorists was waged and won by Iraqi troops…all the while, Michael Yon was Walking the Line. Part I, Part II & Part III. We'll refrain from naming a few editors who should make that required reading.
AFGHANISTAN
- A Night Stalker was shot down in Afghanistan. All 17 souls aboard are believed perished. Godspeed, brothers. May swift vengeance meet the Taliban who claim it.
- Zalmay Khalilzad's would-be assassins have been arrested.
- Bombs kill senior Afghan policeman & 4 others.
- Operation Diablo Reach Back hits the ground running.
THE MIDDLE EAST
- Hizballah attacks Israeli positions at Shebaa Farms along Syrian/Lebanese/Israeli border, one Israeli dead. Iran is still stirring regional pot via Hizballah.
- Terrorists are using the infirm…again. Meanwhile, to contrast that, in Yemen an 81 year old rebel leader was shot dead…in battle.
- The lone remaining Syrian opposition group refuses to disband after government orders.
AMERICAN DOMESTIC SECURITY
- Middle Eastern illegal alien w/terror ties funding Jihad via black market baby formula.
- US, Mexico, and Canada to share terror lists and ‘shore up points’? With what? Minuteman Volunteers? Forget that noise altogether. You'd better start asking: "What borders?" This is what we send before Congress? That's not an answer to security. That's a whole new set of problems. We'll take 5,000 more Border Patrol Agents and Canada can keep their healthcare and Mexico can keep their corruption and incompetence. Thank you, Mr. Pastor. You can go now.
AFRICA
- 3rd Acquital for Kenyan terror suspects??? What was that I said about Mexico?
- Darfur War Crimes possibly to be taken up by ICC. How many dead? UN is shy to say…guilt maybe?
- The African Union has rejected demands from US and others that the demolition of communities in Zimbabwe be stopped. All is well in Zimbabwe. What’s all the complaining about? Naturally, a UN envoy says talks with Mugabe were “very good”. All is well.
- The US Coast Guard is training off coast of Nigeria to assist in such areas as piracy, drug trafficking and terrorism.
- Douglas Farah reminds us that when we think of the Africa situation, think of Iran.
ASIA & AUSTRALIA
- Bangladeshi incursions into India could force new IAF Airbase on the Bangladeshi border.
- China’s CNOOC is bidding hot and heavy for UnoCal. Thomas Quill pours cold water on all the fire-breathing and panting that this has caused. With much due respect, that works fine in peace time. Once China decides it's worth it to hit the waters of the Taiwan Straits, the implications amplify a bit. Need we revisit The Cox Report before considering giving China Unocal?
EUROPE
- The Socialist Zapatero-led government of Spain, ironically thrust into power after the pre-election terrorist bombing of the Madrid train station, has prevented the victims of terrorism from demonstrating in front of the Congress of Deputies building in Madrid. Isn’t that special?
- France demands “clear prospects for full sovereignty” for Iraqi people after Bush speech? The sooner you man a post…well…maybe not. Just stay in France.
- Turkey’s EU membership prospects reduced to “partnership”? Maybe enlarging the EU isn’t such a bright idea after the proposed constitution was soundly rejected. Better get the rest of your house in order before you start building an addition. Meanwhile, Turkey & NATO are doing just fine.
THE GLOBAL WAR
- UN special rapporteur on torture, Manfred Nowak, hears rumors of ‘jail-ships’ and wants investigations...and access to Gitmo...or else. What? He'll invade? Nowak fears abuse and brutality at the hands of American Forces.
- Security Watchtower reminds of the 70 Achievements in the War on Terrorism.
- Colombians now want to trade American hostages.
We try to close on a lighter note if possible. This week, it's possible. Twice.
There are a lot of things I miss about military life and the military profession. Really important ramblings like this one are among the Most Missed Military Musings.
Also...Why are the headlines never like this?
Thanks for reading! (And tolerating a week without Colt.) If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.
Please note bilateral action changed rules of budget adoption in the Senate in order to include $1.5 billion the VA has announced it needs, after having turned down proposed increases in its budget earlier during VA budget consideration. This yesterday.
Noted Committee Chair Craig, the fiduciary body that made that decision relied on '03 figures, which of course did not include the figure for wounded in Iraq so only worked on a 3% increase projection. Or rising health care costs. They live in caves? Don't read?
Also said new VA Director Nicholson is a great successful businessman, who is truly embarrassed. NC.
As you cover the ME and have had comments in the past about weapons sales what do you make of this:
US agrees to sell anti-aircraft launchers to Egypt
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
"The Bush administration has authorized the sale of 25 Avenger anti-aircraft missile launchers to Egypt, calling its ally "an important force for political stability and economic progress in the Middle East."
Does this jibe with the push for democracy or supporting stability by maintaining dictatorships?
"Egypt would be able to build two air defense brigades around the Avengers, the statement said.
"This proposed sale will reduce Egypt's dependence on its Soviet air defense systems and will enhance potential interoperability with US forces," the Pentagon said."
Against who I ask?
From my sideline it looks like back to Baker basics.
Iranian Hostage Crisis:
How sure are we that Ahmadinejad was involved? This morning on CNN, two former hostages said they were 99% certain.
The picture was supposedly taken the first day of hostage-taking. I thought the initial group of students were Marxists, later coopted by Khomenei.
Ahmadinejad was the "security chief" of the Khomeinists who accompanied the Marxists (the nucleus of the later MEK) that seized the embassy.
#2 Cynic
More on the Avenger.
Egypt was looking to buy HUMRAAM's last I checked. The JCSS hasn't noted their arrival. Anyone know if the Avenger is being sold as an alternative, or if Egypt wants both?
BTW, thanks to Steve for the great briefing.
Thanks to all at Winds of Change. I feel like I was invited from the stands to pinch hit in a game at Wrigley Field on the 4th of July. What a thrill and what an honor.
To Cynic, I say that sometimes you just have to hold your nose and dance with who brung ya, like it or not. This may be one of those cases. We cannot fight all battles simultaneously.
Choose them wisely and timely.
Iran is next. Overtly or covertly, Iran is next. It has to be. There will be no victory in the War on Terror but through the Tehran mullahcracy. One way or another, that's just a fact of life.
Egypt can wait. In time, they may begin to wander on their own towards a Lebanese-style reform...
Wisely and timely.
Well, we do have options in Egypt, as I pointed out in How Do You Solve A Problem Like Mubarak
Those recommendations do, however, agree with the "wisely and timely" idea. I'll also note thast Victor Davis Hanson has a differing view, and uses a Sherman analogy to explain why he thinks Egypt is part of The Bush Doctrine's Next Test.
Oh, and BTW, nice double off the ivy....
We'll find out, there are pictures. Any joint in vegas can tell you with near certainty if the faces match, no matter the changes in age or facial hair.
Iraq couldn't be conquered so why would Iran be possible. It is much larger with a bigger population and a leadership that is much less hated than Saddam. Add to that the way America has f up Iraq and one would suspect that even the MEK would fight on the side of the Mullah's.
Besides Iran has real nukes.
Turkey’s will be a EU member in 2014 or 2015 and really nothing will change that. Even not immigrants who want to show off their nationalisme.
It's worthy of note that we have geographically solidified the isolation of many of the regimes who will eventually need to be dealt with.
Afghanistan wedged between Iran and Pakistan. With our official coronation of India (and it's about time), we 'officially' straddle Pakistan and finally declare a friend on China's western door. Iraq isolated Iran to the west and east and drove a wedge of power between Iran and Syria. The Lebanese matter that naturally followed furthered the isolation of Syria.
Two wars and a pact have turned a Rat Line into something resembling stones across a pond.
All a matter of linin' 'em up. And who wins? The people of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Lebanon...and eventually those of Iran, Syria, Pakistan (well, if they want it) and the rest of the Middle East.
All you naysayers, this is a generational change, not a declarable victory. Your children will appreciate the work done today, though they may never have the courage to say such blasphemous utterances in your presence.
A common thread that goes unrecognized by the vast majority of the naysayers (another generational issue?):
It's not about you.
Iraq is now defacto allied with Iran and Syria. Turkey has also moved to a much more negative view of the USA so i wouldn't call Iran isolated at this moment.
Actually, our Monday Winds of War noted that Iraq's new prime minister said its relationship with the USA wouldn't change even if the USA attacked Iran. In the same news report, the Iraqis were making threatening noises at the Syrians and advocating a shutdown of the border.
a., I've long suspected you don't actually read the comments here. I'm beginning to suspect that you don;t read the posts, either.
Iran is next. Overtly or covertly, Iran is next. It has to be. There will be no victory in the War on Terror but through the Tehran mullahcracy.
I'm afraid I disagree. The insurgency in Iraq spelled the end of any ability (through lack of resources, public support, and political will) to intervene in either Iran or North Korea.
In a situation where the threat is relatively nuanced (compared to WWII, for example), the public will only let you have one stalemate. It will take at least a decade after Iraq is wrapped up for the USA to have the political will to intervene in a major way in a foreign country (barring a major catastrophe). Unfortunately, by that time, both Iran and NK will be nuclear capable.
Somehow I don't think that's the only things he's not reading, Joe.