The net effect of this will be zilch. The Republicans will gain nothing nor will the Democrats lose anything. Everyone else is on vacation in August so I doubt that anyone will notice. The stunt begs the question as to why the Republicans Reps are not going home to campaign, do they actually think that this is the best thing to do in order to help their re-election bids?

August is like spring training in the political arena. You pay some attention to it, but by the time Political pennat race gets hot in the middle of October, no one will remember anything about it. I doubt if 1 baseball fan in 1,000 has any idea today of what team had the best record in the Grapfuit League last March.

Republicans are showing up to give handouts to oil companies.

This is news?

Obama voted for the bill which included subsidies to the oil copanies.

At least the Founding Fathers didn't put the Nation's Capital in Chicago. The weather there is worse.

Note that CSPAN doesn't have any cameras. They belong to the house, and Speaker Pelosi has the call on whether they turn them on. CSPAN was very defensive about it on Friday and over the weekend, and they've given lots of coerage of it on the radio and on their website.

To paraphrase Gunnery Sergeant Hartmann, some of you guys spin the way old people copulate.

Isn't anybody up to defending the party line, about Nancy Pelosi's heroic attempt to save the planet?

1. Go rent Flash Gordon.

2. Instead of popcorn, consume a can of ether.

3. Suck in the Gore-gut and try again.

"Or, in other words, you can take any position you want on energy production, as long as it's in favor of offshore drilling."

You can take any position you want on worldwide food shortages, as long as it's in favor of increasing food production. Is that what you are saying, that the environmentally-correct response to that one is opening more vasectomy clinics because increasing food is irresponsible and will only lead to more babies which will lead to . . . tell me you haven't heard Malthus on that one before?

So a platoon of Congressional Republicans are crybabies who are going to whimper and fuss until they get what they want -- offshore drilling. And ANWR. And a plan to make a trillion barrels of oil shale no longer off limits, an expensive source of oil that has become affordable at today's prices. And also get something going on nuclear power, where affordable electricity substitutes for oil in home heating and other applications.

The peasants are sharpening the tines on their pitch forks and trimming their torches with whatever #2 Diesel oil they have on hand. Those Republicans along with Candidate Obama for all that matters are reading the peasantry that they are not in the mood for speeches right now how they should be moving closer to work when they can barely afford the houses they are in.

The peasants are gathering at the gates of the Crown Princes castle. "Countrymen, here me. There is only a limited amount of grain and edible oil with which to fry up your grain cakes, and I could put men to work draining that swamp to grow more grain and oil seed, but that would diminish the amount of something a future generation will call "wetlands" and you would not want that. Besides, you wouldn't see any of that grain for 5 seasons anyway. Tell you what. There is this castle on the other side of the valley, Exxon Castle, where there is a great horde of treasure from the money you spent buying what little grain you have. Give me a levy of fighting men, I will go plunder Exxon Castle and distribute that treasure to all the poor among you the buy grain. This action will not increase the amount of grain one iota. Some wealthy farmers, traiterous pigs within your midst, will take to hoarding grain as a consequence of this action. Giving you more treasure without increasing the amount of grain won't avert the famine; it will only make grain more expensive. But this little treasure distribution scheme sounds good to the young amongst you who haven't given't much thought to such a thing, so this November, you will empower me to carry this out."

I'm not entirely sure whether classical economic theory would predict that offshore drilling would have a very significant impact on the price of oil, since it would only marginally increase the overall supply. However, classical economic theory would not have predicted that merely talking about offshore oil would bring down the price of a gallon of gasoline by 30+ cents in two weeks. Since a lot of the futures speculation that's fueling the price rise is based on margin, what would normally have a marginal impact can apparently make a significant difference. But it's been a long time since I worked through a commodity options calculation. Two things I know:

1. You don't get elected to office in the Midwest without supporting biofuels; and
2. You'll never convince the US public that offshore oil & gas exploration and drilling are bad.

Anything Republican candidates can do to throw the second issue into high relief will win them votes, and at this point they can't afford to waste a single potential vote.

It is more than oil and offshore drilling. It turns out that this Congress, you know, the one that the Democrats wanted to show us nasty old Ruthugs how it was done, has done less than any Congress in 60 years! Follow the link. Then queue up to bash the source or whatever.

More Than Oil

And how many of you working types get to go home for August? Take a vacation? For me I will still be in Israel after my break in HOT, HOT Rome with Battle Command. (Hell, we had FUN!) How do I put a photo in here? Me, I still gotta work through August - in the ME. Cry me a river, Congress.

And would one of you tell me why it is so bad that we drill our own oil, keep the petrodollars at home and out of the hands of the terror financiers? Hmm? Anyone? .... Waiting..... [chirp, chirp]...Waiting...

Hey, Robohobo, Rome is tough in the summer, but in the Middle East, it's dry heat. I know that's an old joke, but it has some truth. Once it cools down enough for you to think clearly, work out how little additional oil the United States has and what's needed for it to become economically viable to produce. The idea that the price of oil has U-Turned because Arabs fear the post-environmentalist United States will out then out of business with their own lake of oil is comic book fantasy.

And how many of you working types get to go home for August? Take a vacation?

You have to understand, TOC thinks we're all French. It's our European manners, our obvious good taste in food, and somebody always going on and on about de Tocqueville.

AJL-

Not on the coast in Ashqelon it isn't! It's humid. Really humid. Luckily the temp is low for this time of year. I go to work 30 km inland and it is still humid though about one tic on the scale less.

And Rome was also humid. It is really only a few km from the coast, which surprised me. The city is dingy and full graffiti. Tons of it. Lots of nice history but the city itself is dirty and unkempt. Pretty and dapper Romans all dressed up and looking really out of place in a rather run down city. The Roma beggars were everywhere and very aggressive. Exclusively women. I am sure the pick was hovering about.

As far as the available oil, I do believe the jury is still out. Until we fully explore we just do not know. And anyway, the less we send to SA the happier I am. Actually, the less we send out of the country, the happier I am. Us our own until we develop the alternative strategies as much as we can. (Notice the plural) Read den Beste's essays on alternative energy for an engineering systems approach and good discussions on scalability. If it ain't scalable, it will not be viable.

Just leave it to the GOP to screw up everything. For all of the folks in DC who don't have the financial scratch to head up to Maine for the month, August was a great time of year. Sure you spent a lot of the days indoors...but its just makes the air conditioning all the more appealing. Plus, if you want to tool around town the roads are (relatively) clear. Tables at nice restaraunts become available, and you could visit a Cap Hill bar like Hawk & Dove without wanting to brain every wannabe staffer in the joint.

But if the Reps dont leave.... the horror.

Robohobo,

In crowing about how this Congress hasn't done anything, you ignore an important point - that the Republican minority is the most obstructive minority EVER.

EVER!

That's why Harry Reid is resorting to building one massive bill, that's going to be hard for Senators to vote against.

Still - very dishonest on your part Robohobo, shows you could care less about civics, as you adopt the Rethuglican playbook:

Step 1: Block anything and everything, in the minority position. Be SUCCESSFUL in insuring that bills don't get passed.
Step 2: Turn around and BLAME THE MAJORITY for being do-nothings - when you were the ones who scuttled things in the 1st place.

It's a cynical "let's get elected" strategy - that doesn't care so much about the health of the country - as such, it's a continuance of the crooked nature of the pre 2006 Rethuglicans, exemplified by Tom Delay.

Hopefully, it won't work - but politics and good governance don't seem to necessarily be all that related.

Demosophist,

Like Roboho, you make a political argument. The policy consequence of the political argument you make though, is basically to give huge handouts to oil companies. As Time has shown the value of tire-gauge fixing outweighs that of oil drilling, IN FACT. IN REALITY.

Given the media environment - a media who is pushing McCain's lying ads (very disappointing coming from a guy I like), it is a shame that political punishment doesn't immediately follow from lack of integrity, and advocating bad policy choices that will have bad consequences.

But that's the way of things. People like Al Gore will continue to get things right, while shallow idiots talk about his fat gut, and somehow that is supposed to work, as a political argument.

Robo, if you're on the southern coast, yeah, that's pretty humid and nasty in the summer. Sorry. I used to work in Ra'anana.

I was going to post the same link as hypocrisy about tire gauges. And yet, the official McCain/GOP line is to ridicule Obama for talking about tire pressure. If the tire gauge companies had the political clout of the oil companies, things would be very different, and probably better.

Living in New Orleans as I do, I am always, shall we say, more than slightly amused when I hear people talking about places like D.C., etc., as being ungodly humid, despite being many degrees of latitude north of N.O. You want to know what sustained heat and humidity is? Come live in New Orleans full-time. Crybabies.......

The one time I was visited NOLA it was the coldest winter on record. 29F.

People like Al Gore will continue to get things right

Heating leading CO2? The measured cooldown in the '90s? The fact that the climate models do not model WATER VAPOR, for heaven's sake, because it's tooooo haaarrrrrrd?

Given that last point, if AGW provides correct predictions, it will not be because of accurate modeling, it will be due to luck; in effect, a coin toss on the net effect of H2O.

People like Al Gore will most likely continue to get things right by changing what they say and claiming they always meant / believed whatever they say latest. Refer to your own nickname.

Humans do that. A lot. Even many scientists. Fortunately, on some level the universe is what it is, and not what we say.

I agree his gut, or lack of it, lacks guts as an argument.

Heh,

Nortius, you're funny. Yes, Gore was RIGHT on global warming - and has been sounding the alarm. He was RIGHT on saying NO to going into Iraq initially. He was right on the internet, and instrumental in getting early government funding.

So rage away - enjoy. But, a bit off-topic, both from my comment, and the point of this post.

Offshore drilling wouldn't increase world supply much so it wouldn't reduce world prices all that much. What it would do is drastically improve the balance of payments and strengthen the dollar, which would reduce dollar quotations of world oil prices.

And would one of you tell me why it is so bad that we drill our own oil, keep the petrodollars at home and out of the hands of the terror financiers? Hmm? Anyone? .... Waiting..... [chirp, chirp]...Waiting...

Robohobo, do you support the proposed legislation to force oil companies to drill their existing oil leases in America or lose them? That would certainly increase domestic oil production, though oil companies might prefer to wait until cost and technology improve.

Dems are making a serious mistake- just as they did when they ignored Gingritch's backbenching in the early nineties. This is about momentum and energizing the base. Republicans havent had jack to rally around in years, particularly regarding Congress. This is something that can spur some excitement and gets some checks writted. Democrats seem to judge every political puzzle based purely on whether it shows up in the NYT, and they get sucker punched every time. I guess its poetic justice for relying on rampant media bias.

This is a campaign issue, make no mistake. The Democrats are making a ballsy argument- that drilling wont help for 5 to 10 years, so we can wait til next year to even address it. Where i come from the longer a serious problem takes the resolves, the sooner you should get cracking. It doesn help that that made the same 10 year argument 10 years ago, which the country should be reminded of often.

#11 from Glen Wishard at 5:46 pm on Aug 05, 2008
Robohobo:

And how many of you working types get to go home for August? Take a vacation?

You have to understand, TOC thinks we're all French. It's our European manners, our obvious good taste in food, and somebody always going on and on about de Tocqueville.

You know, Glenn, I really respect Robohobo. He appears top be steady focused and down to earth in his thinking. I don't think he had any problem with what I said, because he probably has had enough experience with people to know how the world works is not always in the way we would like it to work, which was all that I was pointing out in my post.

You, though, didn't even read what I wrote. Something triggered you to spout some talking points, buzz words, Francophobia, all sorts of things. None, by the way, relevant to the discussion.

I just wanted to let you know that I have become accustomed to this sort of stuff from you to the point where I expect it.

"Robohobo, do you support the proposed legislation to force oil companies to drill their existing oil leases in America or lose them?"

I'm at a loss as to how forcing oil companies to drill where they dont feel it will be profitable relates to this equation at all.

The bigger question is what the government is doing trying to oil companies dictate how and where the earths oil should be buried. Does Congress think the oil responds to their authority, or do they just enjoy jacking oil companies around in general?

TOC -

Cripes, sorry if I don't take you seriously enough. I thought that we were all on vacation, and that none of this mattered anyway.

I should have known from hypo's raving about Rethuglicans that this was a serious intellectual furball, or I would not have treated it in a spirit of levity. My apologies.

The Democrats are making a ballsy argument- that drilling wont help for 5 to 10 years, so we can wait til next year to even address it.

I wonder where they got that idea?

access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017." It added, "Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant."

Said the Bush Administration

Though I don't necessarily disagree that the Democrats are getting it wrong. I think their voters would feel better with something done, like a swap of improved CAFE standards with more drilling. I would like to feel better, but I think oil is going to go up, up, up regardless of what the U.S. does. It's about China.

Hypo: no rage here, just an observation on the general claim of "continuing to get things right".

To whatever extent I was OT, I apologize. On my claim that anyone who is certain AGW is a correct theory is premature or biased in that certainty, I do not yield. The models are too incomplete to be anything more than a lucky guess if AGW turns out true.

Shaw- my point is that the longer its going to take, the FASTER we should be acting.

The other point is that it takes so long to create any energy infastructure in this country because of government red tape, interference, and lawsuits. The Chinese are turning out nuke plants inside 5 years, but we cant possibly do it in less than 10. But most of that time is spent in courtrooms, not with shovels.

Amen to the courtroom bit. The pebble-based nuc. reactors seem to be the safest way to go--and the Chinese are glomming onto that model almost exclusively.

Reality check: (1)there is already a time limit on oil leases on Govt-leased lands.(2)
a large part of current pricing is the expectations of futures traders about future oil supplies. If Bush's waiving requirements for off-shore drilling had an immediate effect (which they did) what do you think the beginning of actual offshore drilling would do? The Bush Administration bureaucrats who list the long lead times for drilling don't know what they are talking about. They are assuming all the "normal normal"
procedures, rather than expedited ones, and, (3) there are numerous wells off the Calif. coast that have been closed for years after the Santa Barbara spill that could be re-opened for production in short order.

And while I'm not a "drain America first" fan, a judicious mix of domestic and cheaper, but less dependable foreign oil is probably the best hedge. What we should be doing is leaving all our natural gas in the ground and tying up all the long-term LNG contracts we can at today's prices(like the Chinese are doing) so that when those supplies run out or are interrupted by war/politics, we have our own to turn to.

Finally, liquified coal technology should also be put on the fast track, as well as more money for research for clean-burn coal technologies. But we had better act fast or we will find that coal--America's "Ace-in-the-hole" --will all be owned by the Chinese under long term contracts they are already putting in place now. The PRC may be evil, but they are not stupid.

My Chinese-made salad spinner broke on third use. If they apply similar QA to nuke plants, I'd say they are on the road to solving their overpopulation problem.

Glen Wishard,

Hah! Guess what - when talking about Tom Delay, or the stacking of rabid partisans in the Justice department, or even about the tactics regarding current Republican obstructionism, "Rethuglican" is EXACTLY the right term.

Just so we're clear!

And enjoy the dog days of summer - I lift a glass to your see-no-evil partisanship!

#26 from Glen Wishard at 10:21 pm on Aug 05, 2008

I come here for opinions not to be entertained. Please refrain from using me in your comedy routines.

Thanks

Apology accepted.

TOC -

Okay, I've got my church face on now. In all seriousness then, what exactly did I write that you interpreted as a "talking point"? For you so accuse me, at the same time that you accuse me of using buzzwords!

"Talking point" literally means that someone tells me what to say, as if I had nothing to say for myself, which is kind of insulting. But I take it you mean it in the casual sense: a standard and unoriginal partisan line, which is repeated by many people as a standard response.

I find it especially unjust, since you inaugurated this thread (comment #1, which I read, contrary to what you say) with what I would call a classic "talking point": i.e., Nobody cares about this. And you followed it up with its derivative: Nobody is going to remember this.

As a matter of fact, I think dismissing other people's opinions as "talking points" is itself a "talking point".

hypo -

right back atcha! It would be really nice if we could figure out a way to all get away from "see-no-evil" partisanship.

It would also be nice if we could each have a pony.

A.L.

hypo -

So you are encountering a lot of obstruction in Congress? I'm just an idiot, so what do I know, but it might be because you have a pathetically bad leader in the House; an incompetent who is incapable of leading a national Democratic party down a reasonable path.

So this most notorious of all Congresses has repeatedly failed to seriously interfere with Bush's Iraq policy, even with a massive tailwind from polls and the media.
What it hasn't failed to do is shackle itself to an anti-energy non-policy, which is now embarrassing your candidate Obama.

You can put that down to obstructionist sabotage, and I can put it down to the fact that you've got a cowboy who doesn't know how to ride a horse.

As much as I admire Chinese environmental policy, its tradition of an independent judicial system, safety in construction and its massive subsidies of gas consumption, the reality is that at current rates of consumption, the U.S. will have to cut petroleum consumption to zero in seventeen years just to offset Chinese demand. More than fuel efficiency standards and more than no drill zones, this is what matters (including India and some other developing countries). I understand why people don't want to talk about it, its something largely out of our control. Consider it an unexpected consequence of wining the Cold War and think twice before dropping copies of Das Kapital from airplanes flying over the Hump.

See Glen, now, now - you're just trying to get on my good side!

I TOO agree with the fact that the leadership - especially in the case of FISA, in the Senate - hasn't done enough. In fact, they have ENABLED the loss of precious freedom and liberty that I hold dear, by limiting accountability of the executive, to the rest of our dear Republic.

But still, economic things have been done - though not this year, yet.... Lots of stuff in the works this year, we'll see what Reid can get through. Last year's 100 day stuff went fairly well though.

But you see, both these things can be true - Democratic leadership, saddled with absolutely obstructionist minority and Blue Dog democrats and "democrats" like Armed Liberal - whose favorite tactic is criticism of democrats from the sideline - don't end up causing as satisfactory policy as I'd like - not in the least (and hey A.L. - there goes your "see no evil" at least from side!)

And yet, this doesn't mean that the Republicans AREN'T playing politics, with this obstructionism. Changing the subject doesn't make that less true.

And hey - I'm actually having fun here - I wish you well, you old Republican partisan dog you - be well! and may all manner of things be well for you!

A.L.

Well, CLEARLY what we need to do, is to give licenses to mine for ponies. Then we'll have more ponies than we know what to do with!! And the price of ponies will come down to less than a dollar a pony!!

Clearly, that makes sense!! What is wrong with the Democratic leadership that they don't see that the way to deal with pony cost and scarcity is to simply LICENSE MORE PONIES!!

Good on the Republican minority - protesting by candlelight, so that licenses for ponies will be extended!

To PD Shaw: Don't date yourself! Do you think half the people here, let alone in the nation at-large, even know what the phrase "flying over the hump"
even means?

Hey! My Dad actually did "fly over the Hump"...

A.L.

AL: I don't know what tales your dad told you, but from what I've read, that was some of the most blood-curdling, hair-raising flying imaginable in those old Curtis C-46 Commandos (the primary ac used then ,I believe) with the limits on their operational ceilings and the unbelievable weather and down-drafts where you could loose 20,OOO' In a heartbeat. It wasn't direct combat, but "I" sure wouldn't have jumped to volunteer for the duty. Those guys were truly unsung heroes. When I read of some of their exploits it watered my eyes. And I've got 100+ msns over N. Vietnam under my belt. The primitive conditions they flew and lived under were beyond belief.....And if you went down and survived...well. good luck in ever making it out of the mountain jungles and the more than warlike natives
who inhabited them.....No air/sea rescue Jolly Greens in those days.....

PS. Plus no survival radios, GPS, or satellite communications of any kind. Just a hand held mag button compass, a mostly worthless map (as much of terr. was uncharted), and lots of luck.

PPS. Oh, and of course no radar or TACAN or other Navaids in the aircraft or on ground--just a magnetic compass and time and distance dead reckoning. Unbelievable when you think how even a top of the line Cessna is equipped now and our world-wide radar traffic control and Navaid systems.

More further reflections on "the hump." I was wrong about total lack of Navaids; they did have a long-range early precursor pf Loran in the form of Direction-finding radio signals which the a/c could home in on. If off course to port crew would receive a morse code steady transmission of single letter, if veer to starboard, another letter in morse would be received.to warn ac was off desired radial. Still, pretty much like rubbing sticks to make fire compared to today.

AL: you're strategy only works if digging for ponies actually creates more ponies. Last I heard, ponies only grow on trees...

A.L. Hey! My Dad actually did "fly over the Hump"...

Don't date yourself, my Grandfather "flew over the Hump." He was with the Mars Task Force.

Virgil, you're probably right about being obscure. When Grandpa was in the V.A. hospital in the 70s, other Vets would ask him "Now what was it you did in the War again?"

LOL - he only did it once, near the end of the war - he had to escort come captured Japanese commo equipment back to India. It appears to have been quite memorable, however...

A.L.

". As Time has shown the value of tire-gauge fixing outweighs that of oil drilling, IN FACT. IN REALITY."

Ah, no, not really. As they showed, the oil drilling amounts to maybe 1% of TOTAL consumption, while tire gage use will amount to maybe a 3% reduction oil consumption by cars with improperly inflated tires. Unless cars with improperly inflated tires are consuming at least a third of our TOTAL oil consumption, (They aren't!) Time's math does not work out.

But it sounded good enough to announce Obama the winner of the debate, and that's all that mattered.