How important is it to get Bin Laden? Scott Atran says--
"Even with many top Qaeda leaders now dead or in custody, the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London is reporting that global recruitment for anti-American jihad is rising and that many small, decentralized groups have sprung up that are harder for governments to identify and neutralize than was the case before the invasion."
His argument (one that feeds his "fictive kin" theory of terrorist networks) is that lopping off the hydra heads does little to stop attacks. I guess I agree with that, case in point, Israel-- I think the Fence has reduced the number of attacks far more than targetting Hamas leaders.

I'd like it to be confirmed confirmed that this is not a voice and body double, but I guess I was terribly wrong as well. The question of why hasnt OBL appeared on video if he is alive seems to have an answer after all. The man is devilishly patient. That makes him extremely dangerous, if we didnt think so already. The answer to why he hasnt broadcast could either be that he was waiting for the proper moment for maximum psychological impact, which is bad enough, or because his reappearance in live video was to be the signal for AQ to attack. Which is terrifying, and worse, seems the more likely possibility.
If ever there was a time for the Red Alert status this is it. Everyone take care this weekend. Keep your eyes open.

Okay, you were right. Remind me not to argue with you for six weeks.

Why now? I think bin Laden has laid low either out of fear, or because he is being restrained by the people (or goevernment) that is sheltering him. For him to break cover four days before the election argues that he (or they) see the stakes as high.

Lol, Glen Wishard-- didn't I tell you Dan was always right? Some advice-- don't argue with Trent either. :)

Ok, so he's not dead!
I still don't find him relevant. Though, maybe I am wrong about that too.

jinnderella -

Actually you said not to second guess him, but I still reserve the right to second guess everybody.

Glen, you're right, that's what I said-- I only implied he's always right! Right-to-second-guess acknowledged!

But you did see he's two for two today, right?

I'm wondering if Kerry might take a huge hit in the polls this weekend.

Not only is Osama out and about, but he is attacking Bush for "My Pet Goat"!! So now Osama, Michael Moore, and the Kerry Kampaign are all on the same talking points. Yeah, that'll go over big.

Unless of course, this is a Karl Rove Production. We thought the Repubs might "produce Osama" in late October. Who thought they'd produce him as a MoveOn ad??

Diabolical, I tells ya.

In any case, the failure of capturing or killing Osama bin Laden to date should not be seen as a reason to despair in the war on terrorism. If anything, it should only be viewed as a reason as to why the war should continue.

Hopefully, we can all agree on at least that much.

Absolutely. In my opinion, however, a little anger at the fact that we have thus far failed to do what we said we'd do, hunt him down and kill him, is warranted. Doubly so if you believe we lost a chance at Tora Bora.

Ultimately this focuses the mind on the real stakes in this war. That being said, it is heartening to know that contributors to this site are clear on that score, whoever you all vote for. Have a good weekend.

Dan,

I definitely agree with this post - without question.

While I want to see bin Laden dead, I would trade him being alive for having his tentacles cut off. Afterall, bin Laden doesn't seem to want to sacrifice his own life.

Still I'm not convinced that the tape is real. The talking points seem too Moorish.

One other point of analysis on Bin Laden himself - he looks rested, healthy, comfortable.

Could he really be in the mountains of Afghanistan/Pakistan, and be so well-fed, comfortable, able to talk so freely, etc?

He's got good lighting, an "indiscriminate" backdrop, etc. It's a production.

What do I know, but my first analysis is that, wherever he may be, the village around him, or the group around him, or whatever, must know about the inflow-outflow of food, equipment, information, etc.

IF, this is true, that "village" around Bin Laden, has to be known by people in power, who have access to information.

So why don't we, or Pakistan, know? If Pakistan knows, why aren't they telling us?

Still I'm not convinced that the tape is real. The talking points seem too Moorish.

Actually, that's one of the reasons to think it is real.

JC

By Pakistan do you mean Musharref? I've long felt it likely that elements of Pakistans intellignece community and or military were aiding bin Laden during his hiding.

The talking points seem too Moorish? I dunno. Shoot, the evidence is starting to pile up.

jinnderella:

Eliminating bin Laden and other top people like al-Zawahiri or Saif al-Adel is extremely important to winning the war on terrorism. Others may replace him, but bin Laden maintains a Hitler-esque cult of personality amongst his followers to such an extent that his loss will be extremely difficult for them to recover from.

Mark Buehner:

Red alert is reserved only if they have specific and actionable information about a potential terrorist attack. I don't think that the release of these two tapes right before our election is a coincidence either, but right now the last intelligence on a pre-election attack (the Chechen stuff) is viewed as false by the CIA. Once actionable intelligence emerges, I'm sure that the appropriate agencies will take the necessary steps, including raising the alert if necessary.

Glen Wishard:

Either that, or he felt that his message (coded or otherwise) was sufficiently important to break cover to air it. Al-Qaeda messages are generally multifaceted, which is why the intelligence types take such care to analyze these rants.

Joel:

My advice would be to read the 9/11 commission report, it makes quite clear just how instrumental bin Laden was to the 9/11 attacks.

Andrew X:

I suspect that bin Laden almost certainly monitors US political rhetoric and hence uses those phrases he sees as being the most productive to his argument and the most divisive to us.

I very much doubt that it was a coincidence that al-Ameriki brought up the issue of same-sex marriage on the tape obtained by ABC News.

ATM:

The talking points likely seemed Michael Moore-ish because that was their likely point of origin. The merits or lack thereof of "Fahrenheight 9/11 aside," the film has received wide distribution abroad and it is quite possible that bin Laden saw it and adapted some of the criticisms in it to suit his own twisted ends.

If you want a parallel example, he has in the past cited Republican criticisms of Clinton using missile strikes on Afghanistan and Sudan to distract public attention from the Lewinsky scandal.

JC:

Indeed he does seem healthy, which is yet another indication IMO that the kidney story is bunk.

You're also assuming that he's in Pakistan, when there are a number of other destinations available to us. I still wouldn't rule out Iran, but I'm likely to be in the minority position on this one.

Dan:

Yeah, I thought the guy was dead. How about that other prediction: the demise of the Democratic Party and the emergence of a national unity party (eventually splitting into two new parties)? Maybe a bit early for that scenario? I have to admit, I overestimated the political acumen of the Bush team, and they certainly could have viciously counter-attacked Kerry on this whole Qa Qaa controversy. They're playing it way too safe.

If it's any comfort, I think the Democrats will self-destruct at some point, but the situation isn't yet ripe. Either that, or some more exotic scenario for realignment of the parties.

Hope you're doing well.

--Scott

I thought OBL was dead as well, and I'm going to apply the 48 hour rule to this video.

On a side note, am I the only one who believes capturing or definitively killing Osama Bin Laden will actually increase the desire to commit anti-american terrorism? Does Musharraf really want to be the leader to announce he has captured Osama Bin Laden and handed him over to Americans? For that matter, does ANY leader want to be the leader that does that?

"National unity party??"

Now that is scarier than OBL.

Dan, I heard some analysis on FOX that two tapes may be linked, and that the message sent by the first (Gadhaan) is "I am Here in America" and the message of Osama's tape may include some sort of cue for an attack. I've been listening to FOX today (blush)-- they scooped the FBI on the Cali mosque/iman connection. :)

Scott raises an exellent point. Re: OBL's comments being Michael Mooreish, I wonder what MM would have to say about that? Maybe he'd recognize his mistakes and admit, to himself at least, that he's helped our enemies enormously with his junk. . . Nah.

jinnderella - Good point. It seemed pretty strange for al-Qaeda to release a video to ABC News, when al-Jazerra has been the outlet of choice for the group. Hopefully it is just that being a tape in English, they wanted to reach their target audience (the USA public) more directly.

Klaatu...

Only if you're sitting out there on the ends of one of those parties. The neoliberals and neoconservatives could work together quite comfortably within a national unity format, fracturing traditional Dem constituencies, taking a lot of the "leave us alone" crowd, working class democrats, and political independents with them - and leaving the Mooreons and theocons out in the political cold.

If you ever find yourself curious about the electoral dynamics of that kind of split, look north of your border for a relevant example (albeit with its distribution shifted about 1 standard deviation to the left, and a different sort of national security as the glue issue).

The reason this hasn't happened in the USA is because the financial and (moreso) organizational hurdles for a new party are so high. It will take a really big set of events or a major implosion to cleave significant numbers of Democratic and/or Republican political professionals and high-profile national figures from their parties, and that's what you'd have to do.

I see it as a remote possibility right now, but the fact that it's on my radar at all is a shift over the past year.

If there's a guy who can make this happen, it's probably bin Laden (though this feat would be more like assisted suicide than murder). I'm with Dan on OBL's likely location... the man's medical needs are strict and he needs to be very secure. Right now, Pakistan has many sympathizers but there are many others who want him dead or captured. Iran is far safer, and already playing host to many of his friends.

Dan,

My advice would be to read the 9/11 commission report, it makes quite clear just how instrumental bin Laden was to the 9/11 attacks.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I mean to say he is not relevant anymore. The WOT has placed severe restrictions on his ability to coordinate terror efforts and has probably greatly impacted the global reach of his thugs. The activities since Tora Bora have been splintered and primitively coordinated, using local talent for the most part. OBL is probably not traveling much these days and they made quite certain that the video was showing as sanitized a picture as possible. He's not a martyr yet, but it does not appear he wants to be one anytime soon.

What do you think this tape provided to his followers that his absence until now had not? that would be the only relevance I could see at this time - and that seems limited to me.
thoughts?

Joe:

I actually think the person on this end who could pull off a national unity coalition is Rudy Giuliani, primarily because of the progressive Republican tradition of NYC, and its central role in the WoT. But I admit that it's a remote possibility, for most of the reasons you mention. Also, from a game theoretical perspective a two-party system optimizes the ability of a "reputation pool" to restrain the behavior of politicians who are nearing the end of their tenure. And a reputarion pool solves a huge problem for politicians running for office, because without it voters would have almost no rational reason to believe political promises. The parties not only restrain politicians, but give them an essential credibility. That's why political parties emerged almost immediate after the Revolution and the first national-scale elections. (There were proto-parties in England before that, but they played a somewhat different role.)

On another topic, I think there's some subtlety in the reasons for this recent UBL tape. Frankly, I don't think he has a strong preference for who the US President happens to be. He follows the "method of Muhammed" and figures he can't lose anyway. So the motivation for the tape is pure rational opportunism. If, by some "miracle," Kerry wins he can claim he influences even the mighty Americans, which gains him enormous prestige with the constiuency that matters to him: the Arab world. If Kerry loses he can simply say: "See, I gave those nasty Americans a chance. Aren't I a sweetie?" So, from a game theory perspective there's all up for him, and almost no down.

If he were alive he'd almost have to do something like this. The bait is just too tempting to ignore.

Well, those are my thoughts. I don't think Al Qaeda has the capacity to do anything major. Hope I'm right. Anyway, I plan to be inside the beltway on election day (after voting).

Demosophist/Scott (4:48am),

It's a bit off topic, but I was intrigued by your response to Joe about the "reputation pool" function of a 2-party system. Perhaps you could offer a "for further reading" link?

Joel --

He might have been marginalized for a while, but I think it's pretty obvious that wherever he is he has access to plenty of communications equipment.

Thought the backdrop intrigues me. I wonder if that was to hide the fact that he's in a cave that would be somewhat recognizable, at least by general area.

Joe, when talking about die Nationaleinheitspartei, wouldn't it sound so much better in German?

Made up of neoliberals and neoconservatives? Now that's a scary crew. Doctrine: First we'll invade you to bring democracy, then we'll impose a two year limit on collecting welfare.

Giuliani for president: No more squeegee guys at intersections anywhere in the USA!

I disagree with your premise that only extremists would fear a one-party state. Not just because of the "game theoretical perspective," whatever that is. Your smothering socialist-but-illiberal Canadian polity might seem pretty good compared to what we'd end up with here, which would probably be the corporate state, standing on jackboots and speaking propaganda.

It doesn't surprise me that Mr. Darling thinks that Osama is in Iran, given that his boss Michael calls for invading Iran every other week.

Hey Dan, ask Mike if his daughter Simone will be back for a replay doing budget at the Ministry of Finance in Tehran, and if that cutie Michelle G will be coming along again.

This talk about die Nationaleinheitspartei reminds me of something I heard Seymour Hersh say awhile back. Whatever you think about Hersh's opinions, his sources are excellent, and I dare you to find a factual inaccuracy in any of his reporting. He has been spot-on on Iraq.

Hersh said that after 9/11, the intelligence and military people he spoke to had a fundamental question: was this a part of a much bigger plan with many sleeper agents primed for more attacks, or was it that these 19 guys got lucky, "like a pick-up basketball team that made it to the Final Four?"

The conclusion of these intelligence professionals was that it was the latter, and Hersh said that Bush had two choices in how he would present the facts to the public: one, just tell Americans that the USA would deal harshly with OBL and al-Qaida, but that WTC style attacks are not expected to be a recurring phenomenon, or two, ratchet up the fear level among Americans to push through not only an internal security agenda (Patriot Act), but also the rest of the Bush agenda, including the invasion of Iraq.

So this climate of fear, (alert color codes, etc.) has been running now for three years, no major attacks on the USA since then, and it's wearing a bit thin.

I guess my perspective is that (1) "terrorism" is always going be be with us, it's a tactic; (2) changing the entire Middle East is beyond the capabilities of the US and the attempt will probably be counterproductive; (3) al-Qaida and its ilk were a realtively small band of fanatics, easily defeated with a combination of force and diplomacy, but our blundering (Iraq) and nonfeasance (Israel/Palestine) have recruited many to the ideas and world view of al-Qaida, if not the actions of al-Qaida.

People get sooo afraid and overwrought, to the extent that thinking a Nationaleinheitspartei is a good idea. Now that's what I'm afraid of.

Klaatu,

The implication that the scenario described above (which, by the way, resembles the political dynamics in my own country) is reminiscent of Naziism - is despicable. Frankly, your invocation of it in response made me stop reading your reply.

I'm going to simply cut this discussion off right there, and ask future replies to focus on the subject of Dan's article which is Osama bin Laden. Deletion will be the fate of those that fail to do so.