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What happens when you put analyses through a blender

| 3 Comments

Is sort of my reaction when I read this Time Magazine article on the rise of Zarqawi. On the other hand, I've also criticized the press for being too willing to follow a set narrative fed to them by anonymous sources, so I guess they just can't win ...

In all seriousness, the article is pretty good insofar as conveying the current views of the US, French, and Arab (Iraqi? Jordanian? Saudi?) intelligence services on Zarqawi and most of the past information is pretty accurate as well even though it contradicts much of what US media outlets have been trying to claim since January 2004. I would still recommend reading it, but please note sourcing when doing so.

In brief summary of my problems/contentions concerning the article:

  • The sections on Saif al-Adel and al-Qaeda policy towards Shi'ites are a mess. Ignoring the issues of al-Adel's "detention" and status as a "former member" of bin Laden's inner circle (a view not supported by the very online document that Time quotes from - to read more excerpts from it you can go here and read Bill Roggio or my own treatment on it when it was first reported by al-Sharq al-Awsat back in June, which should give you an idea of how dated some of this stuff is), al-Qaeda has always stayed away from sectarian animosity against Shi'ites. I am extremely skeptical that bin Laden would have tried to order Zarqawi via Hassan Ghul to carry out attacks against Iraqi Shi'ites as a means of leverage against Iran (why not just attack the Iranians directly?) given that media reports as well as Michael Scheuer (still employed by the CIA during this period) have explicitly stated that bin Laden rejected Zarqawi's sectarian campaign in Iraq. The latter opinion is even upheld in the same Time Magazine article, which notes that the purported letter from al-Zawahiri to Zarqawi "reveals differences between the old al-Qaeda leaders and al-Zarqawi over tactics and ideology" - one of which is his decision to attack Shi'ites in Iraq!
  • The "two dozen other terrorist groups in more than 30 countries in Europe, Africa and Asia" that Zarqawi has contacted "in an effort to raise funds for his network and coordinate international operations" are almost certainly the relevant members of bin Laden's terrorist coalition (basically everybody except the Southeast and Central Asian groups, which have their own problems to deal with at the moment) that have been working together at least as far back as the early 1990s in Sudan - take a look at p. 58 of the 9/11 commission report, for instance. All this means, if you can see past the hype, is that the old al-Qaeda infrastructure is still intact and being readily exploited by Zarqawi.
  • The account of the 1999 meeting between Zarqawi and bin Laden is supported by Jean-Charles Brisard's account of the relationship between the two men in Zarqawi, which was quite unprofessionally trashed by Daniel Benjamin in his review of the book for the New York Times a few months back precisely because he disagreed with Benjamin on that point. I myself have long been of the opinion that bin Laden and Zarqawi were brothers in arms and it's nice to see that the press is finally catching on. Next step: will they be willing to admit that they were wrong to charge the administration with distorting the nature of the relationship between Zarqawi and bin Laden?
  • I suspect that there's a lot more that was left out of Abu Faraj al-Libi's statements concerning the al-Qaeda "management committee" than what was leaked to Time by the French since there are currently two such committees - one based out of Pakistan that is more or less the same as the ad-hoc council that I wrote about here and another based out of Iran.
  • The chronology is screwed up (either by Time or their senior ISI source, you decide which) concerning the departure of the "several hundred" al-Qaeda jihadis who left Afghanistan for Iraq to fight the US - that occurred prior to the beginning of the Iraq war.

As former Indian intelligence official B. Raman noted back in March 2004:

Even before the invasion, terrorist elements of the IIF started moving to Iraq via Saudi Arabia and Iran for starting a jihad against the Americans. The first group to go was from the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM). They went to Saudi Arabia as Haj pilgrims and from there crossed over to Iraq. Subsequently, Arab-speaking volunteers of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the LEJ also started going to Iraq in small numbers. Many of the Arabs of Chechen ancestry, originally belonging to Jordan and Saudi Arabia, who were in the South Waziristan area of the FATA, also joined them.
*
  • I'm rather skeptical of the contention that bin Laden is being phased out in favor of Zarqawi, if than nothing else than because we simply don't get that lucky. If you read over the al-Zawahiri letter, the distinct impression that I get is that he would be a far more dangerous opponent for us to fight inside Iraq than Zarqawi is. The fact that bin Laden has been able successfully evade the most sophisticated dragnet for the last 5 years is testimony enough to how adept he is at both secrecy and security and I'm more worried about the claim that we don't know anything about him than I am the idea that Zarqawi's the new supervillain on the block. I also don't think that anything should be read into the absence of public appearance on his part - prior to October 2004, that was sort of Exhibit A for far too otherwise intelligent people assuming that he was dead. Somebody seems to be working mighty hard to bulwark Waziristan into an al-Qaeda stronghold, for instance, and you can take your own guesses as to who that might be.

In somewhat related news, I see that Abu Khabab, al-Qaeda's resident mad scientist, is finally getting some of the popular notice that a madman of his stature deserves. As with bin Laden, the fact that we know far too little about where this guy is now and what he's up to now (his last appearance on the radar was in February 2003 - anybody care to guess what he's been doing the last 2 years?). As with Saif al-Adel, I think that the danger posed by Khabab and his students is under-appreciated in favor of Zarqawi at this point and that after either man successfully pulls off a major terrorist attack in the West (though I think you can see traces of al-Adel's hand in the 3/11 bombings through Rabei Osman Sayyid Ahmed and Abu Faraj al-Libi's in 7/7) all of the usual suspects will be scratching their heads wondering how exactly we missed these guys.

3 Comments

These analyses always conveniently overlook some of the proven facts about Zarqawi: namely, that he created a European network--primarily in Germany, France, Spain and Italy--while operating from Tehran. This is proven by court documents in Italy and Germany, to which I referred in what I believe was the first discussion of Zarqawi, in NRO.

Does anyone believe that the mullahs supported (to take the de minimus position) a man who was about to declare war on the Shi'ites? Makes no sense.

But it is thoroughly plausible to argue that Zarqawi, with Iranian cooperation, is doing everything he possibly can to foment civil war in Iraq. Forget about the Sunni/Shi'ite issue, and just focus on that, and I think it advances knowledge more than fragmentary information from the French, much as I admire French information.

Dr. Ledeen:

Oh definitely, though I think it bears noting that the two countries that were the most vehemently against the US invasion of Iraq are also two of the firmest on the connections between his organization and the Iranians just based on open-source (if you've got a translator) court documents. I also think that one of the main problems with how the debate is framed amongst the general public is that Shi'ites are conceptualized as some kind of a monolithic bloc without any appreciation for the real differences and similarities between the two of them.

For instance, the Yemeni government claims that Iran is subsidizing the rebellion now going on under the leadership of the Zaydi cleric al-Houthi. Zaydis aren't Twelvers the way the Iranians are, but the Iranians seem to be giving them more support than they are the Pakistani Twelvers who are regularly subject to all kinds of KKK-style sectarian violence. The main (and unappreciated) difference is that al-Houthi is open to getting cosy with the mullahs, whereas the Pakistanis have tried to keep their distance since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Zaydis aren't Twelvers the way the Iranians are, but the Iranians seem to be giving them more support than they are the Pakistani Twelvers

In much the same way, the Iranians are giving Tater more direct support than they give some of the other Shia factions in Iraq.

The chronology is screwed up (either by Time or their senior ISI source, you decide which) concerning the departure of the "several hundred" al-Qaeda jihadis

The TIME account is not mutually exclusive with B. Raman's information.

Speaking of B. Raman, I have a different view of Zarqawi in general, and in particular the Saif al Adel document. I think al Adel's accound is the official al Qaeda version of what happened. The reality is somewhat different. B. Raman, from the same article Dan cites:

_11. Many notorious Pakistani and Arab terrorists such as Ramzi Yousef, now in jail in the US for his involvement in the New York World Trade Centre explosion of February,1993 Maulana Masood Azhar of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), Fazlur Rahman Khalil of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian, started their career as terrorists as members of the SSP and participated in many of its anti-Shia massacres in Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. When al-Zarqawi, along with some other Jordanians, many of them of Chechen ancestry, came to Pakistan in the 1980s to join the Arab mercenary force trained and armed by the CIA and the ISI and used against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan, his passport gave his name as Fadel al-Khalayleh, which is believed to be his real name.

12. On June 20, 1994 Ramzi Yousef and al-Zarqawi, at the instigation of the Iraqi intelligence, caused an explosion at Mashad in the Iranian territory adjoining Pakistan which killed a large number of Shias. Zarqawi, along with the late Riaz Basra, the leader of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), the militant wing of the SSP, helped the Taliban in the capture of Kabul in September, 1996.

13. The LEJ subsequently helped the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the massacre of the Hazaras (Shias ) of Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden never liked Saddam, whom he looked upon as an apostate because of his secular and socialist policies, and the proximity of the LEJ and al-Zarqawi to Saddam's intelligence agency created differences between them and bin Laden._

These are the critical paragraphs. You know this already.

Al Qaeda is its own organization with its own goals. One of its roles is that of contractor for terror-utilizing states... a sort of terrorist temp agency. But this can be in conflict with al Qaeda's own long-term goals, i.e. Caliphate, or even its short term goals, a patch of land al Qaeda can again call its own, as in Afghanistan pre-9/11.

They've also got to keep their sponsors happy, and sometimes the sponsors have conflicting interests, as we see here with Iraq and Iran. Iraq and Iran found a way to cooperate by the late '90s, but that doesn't mean Iran couldn't beat the tar out of Zarqawi when they got ahold of him, just on general principle.

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