Winds of Change.NET: Winds of War: 2003-05-27

May 27, 2003

Winds of War: 2003-05-27

by Joe Katzman at May 27, 2003 7:00 AM

MAY 27/03: Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Out of respect for Memorial Day in the USA, we're running this feature Tuesday and Thursday this week instead.

If you find something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". Welcome!

IRAQ BRIEFING

Lt. Col. Tim Collins of the Royal Irish, who gave an historically fine pre-war speech to his troops, is under investigation. Lots of splashy headlines... but here's what Collins actually did. Prediction: he'll be cleared, quickly.

DailyKos isn't the only one wondering about the U.S. decision to just demobilize the entire Iraqi Army. I must say, there had better be a really good follow up move coming here.

The loss of oil contracts has begun. They'll be renegotiated on more favourable terms for Iraq; many of Saddam's contracts were poor deals.

With the lifting of sanctions, exports can begin soon. Oil production is currently 310,000 barrels of oil a day, and Iraq's acting oil minister believes they can reach 1.3 or 1.5 million barrels a day in a few weeks. That would be half of Iraq's pre-war output. Security is an issue, especially trying to cover the pipelines.

Speaking of sanctions, we now know from Iraqis who participated in the fraud that the propaganda about Iraqi children being killed by sanctions was a sham. (Hat Tip: Dean's World)

The Kurds are restless, but they are also likely to be very important players in Iraq's private sector. Those commercial ties will be a big help in smoothing things out in the short term. If the Kurds just keep building and take the long view, I'd say authonomy at least in within their grasp over the longer term. IF.

Holy Goldfinger, Batman! On the way to Syria, too. How nice.

Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker." Meanwhile, Boomshock has a list of our best poker hands.

The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated April 1, 2003]

THE WIDER WAR

Today's mandatory read comes via reader Brian Reilly: Russia's Rising Darkness. This will not be a comfortable read, but it's an important one.

A "Roadmap Roundup" re: the Israeli-Palestinian Road Map is ready to run for tomorrow.

Iran and al-Qaeda.

The USA is making plans to deny the use of near-earth orbit space to unfriendly nations during future crises. Interesting implications - this is one of those quiet moves that's more significant than it seems. Rand Simberg has more.

Afghanistan needs more aid, and they should get it. Europe with all its faux-piety about investing in peace isn't likely to step up. Maybe we could lean on the Saudis to give to non-terrorists for a change.

74 Spanish troops dead on their way back from Afghanistan, in a crash at a Turkish air base. Contracting transport to the Ukraine may have been a poor idea. Still, it's a crushing blow to a good European ally... please spare a thought of remembrance and gratitude for their sacrifice.

The bombings in Morocco may be the thin edge of an Algerian-style Islamist wedge. If so, the dynamics in that region are about to get very complicated indeed. Meanwhile, M. Simon mails in some positive news.

India is on the offensive in Kashmir. The seasonal terror cycle is about to ramp up, so we won't have to wait long to know how effective this turns out to be.

Definite success in the Philippines.

A U.S. Roadmap for Pakistan? This may be genuine, but it fits several classic pattern for disinformation operations. I'm suspicious, but if it is an op it's a good one because the scenario itself is plausible.

Looks like the gloves are off in Indonesia's military campaign against the Free Aceh Movement.

We try to close on a lighter note if possible. How could we possibly top the Russian officer convicted of beating his men with a dildo? Use the Comments section if you have any brilliant ideas for a newspaper headline.

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Comments

#1 from parallel at 12:43 pm on May 27, 2003

As far as I know, the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) are not jihadi extremists, but nationalist separatists (of course, they are muslims). It is possible that I am misinformed.

Of course, there are several jihadi movements in Indonesia, including those involved in the Bali bombing and those involved in attacks on Christians (and general inter-communal violence) in the Malaccas.